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KARABAKH CONFLICT A 'TACTICAL TESTING GROUND' FOR WEST, RUSSIA
news.az
Sept 8 2010
Azerbaijan
Tofig Abbasov News.Az interviews Lider TV commentator, political
scientist Tofig Abbasov.
How do you assess the overall geopolitical situation in the South
Caucasus today?
The situation is notable for the growing tensions. Since the incident
on 18 June when Azerbaijani advance groups managed to suppress a
provocation to the rear of the enemy, Armenian servicemen have been
looking for revenge; they constantly break the ceasefire and provoke
tension. In such conditions it is at the least naïve to speak of
prospects of a breakthrough in the peace process. I don't know the
mood of the [Minsk Group] co-chairs in their visit to the region,
but one thing's for sure and that's that they aren't deeply affected
by the losses.
Is the deterioration of the situation on the front line part of
ongoing processes in our region?
Hostilities are inevitably explosive material which fills the vacuum
in the political process. For example, Armenian President Sargsyan
regrets that Azerbaijan has not concluded a treaty on the non-use of
force. Can a party that is genuinely seeking peace demonstrate the
level of aggression [seen from Armenia]? The answer is simple. On
the one hand, the Armenians are brainwashing the mediators and the
community with their traditional whining about alleged repression
and, on the other hand, they are putting pressure on Azerbaijan to
force it into concessions. I think a treaty on the non-use of force
may be concluded with Armenia. This will help take the wind out of
the enemy's sails and model a thoroughly different situation when
Armenia will have one less reason for its intractability.
How will all this influence the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?
This is what we are talking about. Armenia is a party with which
you have to "go all round the houses" in search of compromise. The
Armenians complain about a lack of measures of trust. The doleful
complaints come from a party that bore a grudge in the times of the
Ottoman Empire, the Turkish Republic, the Azerbaijan Democratic
Republic, in Soviet times and since. If it did not have foreign
supporters, it would behave differently. We should not forget that
the major powers always welcome such crises as Karabakh. They help
them to execute their plans to rule. They cannot have an interest
in their resolution. Moreover, for the West and Russia the Karabakh
conflict is a tactical, rather than strategic, testing ground. In other
words, this is not the Balkans or Iraq, where the basis of a long-term
economic program was laid under the cover of military intervention.
They operate very slowly in the South Caucasus, even lazily. This is
all contradictory. All our troubles stem from this. And Armenia, a
country with the status of a geopolitical appendix, bears the greater
part of these troubles. Unfortunately, the Armenian elite is aware
of the harmfulness of what is going on but lacks both the political
and civil will to recognize it and draw the necessary conclusions.
Is there a risk of escalation into a full military confrontation? Do
you agree with Russian political scientists who say that Azerbaijan
should not expect the support of any state, not even Turkey, if we
seek to restore the territorial integrity of our state through war?
This risk is growing every day. Only the mediators from the Minsk Group
can be cold-blooded in these conditions. The process is inevitably
moving towards a critical point. The mediators are making no effort
but do not conceal their delight that the dialogue of the presidents
has not been frustrated. And against this background, soldiers
and officers are dying at the front. It is strange that the three
countries [of the Minsk Group co-chairs - France, the USA and Russia]
and international organizations are always warning Azerbaijan against
using force. They are talking to the wrong side. Baku has said what
it had to say at the negotiating table, unlike Yerevan. It means that
the party that is hindering the peace process is preparing for war.
From: A. Papazian
news.az
Sept 8 2010
Azerbaijan
Tofig Abbasov News.Az interviews Lider TV commentator, political
scientist Tofig Abbasov.
How do you assess the overall geopolitical situation in the South
Caucasus today?
The situation is notable for the growing tensions. Since the incident
on 18 June when Azerbaijani advance groups managed to suppress a
provocation to the rear of the enemy, Armenian servicemen have been
looking for revenge; they constantly break the ceasefire and provoke
tension. In such conditions it is at the least naïve to speak of
prospects of a breakthrough in the peace process. I don't know the
mood of the [Minsk Group] co-chairs in their visit to the region,
but one thing's for sure and that's that they aren't deeply affected
by the losses.
Is the deterioration of the situation on the front line part of
ongoing processes in our region?
Hostilities are inevitably explosive material which fills the vacuum
in the political process. For example, Armenian President Sargsyan
regrets that Azerbaijan has not concluded a treaty on the non-use of
force. Can a party that is genuinely seeking peace demonstrate the
level of aggression [seen from Armenia]? The answer is simple. On
the one hand, the Armenians are brainwashing the mediators and the
community with their traditional whining about alleged repression
and, on the other hand, they are putting pressure on Azerbaijan to
force it into concessions. I think a treaty on the non-use of force
may be concluded with Armenia. This will help take the wind out of
the enemy's sails and model a thoroughly different situation when
Armenia will have one less reason for its intractability.
How will all this influence the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?
This is what we are talking about. Armenia is a party with which
you have to "go all round the houses" in search of compromise. The
Armenians complain about a lack of measures of trust. The doleful
complaints come from a party that bore a grudge in the times of the
Ottoman Empire, the Turkish Republic, the Azerbaijan Democratic
Republic, in Soviet times and since. If it did not have foreign
supporters, it would behave differently. We should not forget that
the major powers always welcome such crises as Karabakh. They help
them to execute their plans to rule. They cannot have an interest
in their resolution. Moreover, for the West and Russia the Karabakh
conflict is a tactical, rather than strategic, testing ground. In other
words, this is not the Balkans or Iraq, where the basis of a long-term
economic program was laid under the cover of military intervention.
They operate very slowly in the South Caucasus, even lazily. This is
all contradictory. All our troubles stem from this. And Armenia, a
country with the status of a geopolitical appendix, bears the greater
part of these troubles. Unfortunately, the Armenian elite is aware
of the harmfulness of what is going on but lacks both the political
and civil will to recognize it and draw the necessary conclusions.
Is there a risk of escalation into a full military confrontation? Do
you agree with Russian political scientists who say that Azerbaijan
should not expect the support of any state, not even Turkey, if we
seek to restore the territorial integrity of our state through war?
This risk is growing every day. Only the mediators from the Minsk Group
can be cold-blooded in these conditions. The process is inevitably
moving towards a critical point. The mediators are making no effort
but do not conceal their delight that the dialogue of the presidents
has not been frustrated. And against this background, soldiers
and officers are dying at the front. It is strange that the three
countries [of the Minsk Group co-chairs - France, the USA and Russia]
and international organizations are always warning Azerbaijan against
using force. They are talking to the wrong side. Baku has said what
it had to say at the negotiating table, unlike Yerevan. It means that
the party that is hindering the peace process is preparing for war.
From: A. Papazian