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GLOBAL INSIDER: RUSSIA-ARMENIA DEFENSE TIES
Kari Lipschutz
World Politics Review
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/6371/global-insider-russia-armenia-defense-ties
Sept 10 2010
Armenia agreed to extend Russia's lease of a military base in the
city of Gyumri until 2044. In an e-mail interview, Kim Iskyan,
a director in the Russia and Eurasia practice at Eurasia Group,
discusses Russia-Armenia defense relations.
WPR: What has historically been Russia and Armenia's defense
relationship?
Kim Iskyan: Russia and Armenia have long shared a close relationship,
with defense as a critical dimension. Upon the collapse of the Soviet
Union in 1991, there were Soviet bases in all three countries of
the Caucasus, but Azerbaijan and Georgia subsequently engineered the
departure of the Russian military presence. Armenia, though, wanted to
keep Russian boots on Armenian territory. Russia currently maintains a
base with several thousand troops in the city of Gyumri. Russian and
Armenian forces are jointly responsible for the defense of Armenia's
borders.
In the bigger picture, the Russian presence has been a critical
source of support for Armenia against the possible threat of any
heightened tension with Turkey and, in particular, with Azerbaijan. The
Nagorno-Karabakh issue remains a source of continued contention,
and Armenia does not have relations with Turkey nor Azerbaijan. So
Armenia has long been in a tenuous position -- geopolitically,
economically and militarily -- and has looked to Russia for support.
WPR: What is the significance of the recent extension of the
Russia-Armenia base deal?
Iskyan: The deal highlights Russian commitment to Armenia, and
solidifies Russia's role as Armenia's big brother. That said, Russia
has long tried to walk a fine line, as it is not in Russia's interest
to alienate Azerbaijan -- which is economically far more important
to Russia than Armenia because of its oil resources.
Critics of the deal question whether -- if push came to shove -- Russia
would go to the wall for Armenia against Turkey and/or Azerbaijan, and
whether the agreement may give Armenia a false sense of security. (This
is highlighted by the rumored sale by Russia of anti-aircraft rocket
launchers to Azerbaijan.) Also, the extension of the base deal limits
Armenia's scope for maneuver; it in effect further reduces the chances
that Armenia will join NATO, for example.
Any change in heart, or policy, on the part of Russia vis-a-vis its
objectives in the Caucasus, or the broader region, could be dangerous
for Armenia.
WPR: What impact does the base have on the regional balance of power,
now and in the years to come?
Iskyan: There is unlikely to be any real impact on the regional
balance of power. The deal further strengthens Russia's position in
Armenia -- and the region in general -- but it doesn't represent
a significant shift in the balance of power. The level of Russian
military commitment is unchanged, and there is no shift in Russia's
position regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, or Armenia's relations with Turkey
and Azerbaijan. Russia's relations with Georgia remain challenging,
but this is largely divorced from Russia's role in Armenia.
From: A. Papazian
Kari Lipschutz
World Politics Review
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/6371/global-insider-russia-armenia-defense-ties
Sept 10 2010
Armenia agreed to extend Russia's lease of a military base in the
city of Gyumri until 2044. In an e-mail interview, Kim Iskyan,
a director in the Russia and Eurasia practice at Eurasia Group,
discusses Russia-Armenia defense relations.
WPR: What has historically been Russia and Armenia's defense
relationship?
Kim Iskyan: Russia and Armenia have long shared a close relationship,
with defense as a critical dimension. Upon the collapse of the Soviet
Union in 1991, there were Soviet bases in all three countries of
the Caucasus, but Azerbaijan and Georgia subsequently engineered the
departure of the Russian military presence. Armenia, though, wanted to
keep Russian boots on Armenian territory. Russia currently maintains a
base with several thousand troops in the city of Gyumri. Russian and
Armenian forces are jointly responsible for the defense of Armenia's
borders.
In the bigger picture, the Russian presence has been a critical
source of support for Armenia against the possible threat of any
heightened tension with Turkey and, in particular, with Azerbaijan. The
Nagorno-Karabakh issue remains a source of continued contention,
and Armenia does not have relations with Turkey nor Azerbaijan. So
Armenia has long been in a tenuous position -- geopolitically,
economically and militarily -- and has looked to Russia for support.
WPR: What is the significance of the recent extension of the
Russia-Armenia base deal?
Iskyan: The deal highlights Russian commitment to Armenia, and
solidifies Russia's role as Armenia's big brother. That said, Russia
has long tried to walk a fine line, as it is not in Russia's interest
to alienate Azerbaijan -- which is economically far more important
to Russia than Armenia because of its oil resources.
Critics of the deal question whether -- if push came to shove -- Russia
would go to the wall for Armenia against Turkey and/or Azerbaijan, and
whether the agreement may give Armenia a false sense of security. (This
is highlighted by the rumored sale by Russia of anti-aircraft rocket
launchers to Azerbaijan.) Also, the extension of the base deal limits
Armenia's scope for maneuver; it in effect further reduces the chances
that Armenia will join NATO, for example.
Any change in heart, or policy, on the part of Russia vis-a-vis its
objectives in the Caucasus, or the broader region, could be dangerous
for Armenia.
WPR: What impact does the base have on the regional balance of power,
now and in the years to come?
Iskyan: There is unlikely to be any real impact on the regional
balance of power. The deal further strengthens Russia's position in
Armenia -- and the region in general -- but it doesn't represent
a significant shift in the balance of power. The level of Russian
military commitment is unchanged, and there is no shift in Russia's
position regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, or Armenia's relations with Turkey
and Azerbaijan. Russia's relations with Georgia remain challenging,
but this is largely divorced from Russia's role in Armenia.
From: A. Papazian