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AZERBAIJAN CAN MAKE RIGHT CONCLUSIONS, BECOME INDEPENDENT PLAYER IN ITS REGION
news.az
Sept 10 2010
Azerbaijan
Yuriy Bocharov News.Az interviews Yuri Bocharov, political
technologist, PR-manager (Israel).
Some experts believe the main event in the Russian President's visit
to Azerbaijan was the signing of the final document on the state
border, others say it is the agreement on raising volumes of export
of Azerbaijani gas to Russia, while the rest say that by his visit to
Yerevan and Baku Medvedev showed to the West that Russia is the main
power in the region. And what are your impressions of Medvedev's visit?
There is a saying "To do a good face in a bad game", which means to
try to conceal trouble and problems under external calmness. Russia has
troubles in both political and especially economic sense. But it needs,
if exactly, it 'wants' to play a role of the leading political force
not only in our region. President Medvedev is striving to show his
international importance on the background of the "working" success
(and shortages) of Premier Putin.
I think the whole visit is a formality, Moscow's attempt to justify
itself for Armenian projects. In fact, Moscow had nothing to offer Baku
except for its explanations. From here come the so-called projects
of the century. Have there been any differences on delimitation of
state border? Is this the level of presidents? On the background of
the volumes of oil products supplies to other countries and Iran's
intention to get up to 10 bn cubic meters of gas a year, the new
agreement with Russia for supply of 2 bn cubic meters of gas seems
not too significant. In fact, President Aliyev by his actions has
"saved Dmitriy Medvedev's image" by his actions, like we say in
the East by signing a number of protocols thus making this a state
visit. Let's take into the essence of Russia's economic offers in
the sphere of energy sources. We can view this either a bribe to
Azerbaijan for their pro-Armenian policy or as a long-term project
on the settlement of their own interests.
Why did Gazprom proposes the allegedly extremely favorable economic
offers by means of which Azerbaijan can sell its gas by European
prices paying to Russia only for transportation. Here we see Russia's
intention to fill its pipelines by 100% since it does not only bring
tens of millions of dollars a year to its treasury but also freezes
construction of alternative ways of oil supplies to Europe. In fact,
Russia wants to transit all Azerbaijani energy sources by any means
even by raising the amount of deals in order to remain the main
supplier of energy sources, which means to be the main player in
the European space. Meanwhile, Gazprom's offer to purchase share of
BP which is operating the BTC pipeline shows Russia's intention to
control others' oil flows.
Which goals do you think Russia pursues by ensuring its long-term
military presence in Ukraine and Armenia?
Like most superpowers of the world Russia pursues only its own state
interests.
In any form Russia is losing its influence in the Caucasus and in
the entire Middle East. Today the military base in Gryumri (Armenia)
is factually its last bastion in the region which helps it control
the air space of Turkey, Iran, Georgia, Azerbaijan and defend its
borders at a distance.
Meanwhile, Sevastopol is the last serious marine base of Russia
in the Black Sea. After losing it, Russia will lose the Black and
Mediterranean Seas and along with them its influence in the Middle
East.
Today Russia is taking huge efforts to preserve its influence in the
region including supplies of free arms to Armenia and the writing
off Ukraine's debt partially.
On the other hand, where can Armenia surrender, who needs it in
its current state? Who wants to be friends with it and why? The
leading geopolitical players view Armenia only as their platform in
the Caucasus.
Do you think it is possible to believe Russian leadership who states
that the recently signed agreement on the Russian military base in
Armenia is not targeting Azerbaijan?
What does sincerity of people who are willing to rule the world mean?
Though the tasks of the 102nd Russian military base provide for the
strategic stability of Russia's external border, we should not forget
that they are equipped with anti-missile S-300 complexes and MiG-29
fighters while the staff is about 5,000 people. Meanwhile, according
to different sources, almost the whole staff consists of Russian
citizens of Armenian ethnic. In fact, the base is de-facto a part of
the Armenian armed forces, supported by Russian money and technique.
So whose interests will the base defend in case of the armed conflict?
Though Russia will hardly intervene into the armed conflict in the
territory of NKO, it cannot be said about the Armenian armed forces
including the soldiers of the 102nd 'Russian' military base.
Why do you think Russia is raising its military cooperation with
Armenia and simultaneously agrees to export S-300 complexes to
Azerbaijan?
As they say: "Nothing personal, only business!"
We should not forget that Russia is the world's second arms suppliers
after the United States, while its revenues from the military
industrial complex occupy a significant place in its budget after
supplies of energy sources and crude. In addition, Russia is obliged
to supply arms to Armenia free of charge, while it can get the real
price from Azerbaijan. In addition, according to other estimates,
it is the same S-300 complex, which Russia was trying to supply to
Iran but could not do this because of sanctions. It means that if
Azerbaijan gets it, this will rescue Russia once again.
I would like to draw your attention to a number of other military
proposals received from Russia, in particular, on modernization
of MiGs and tanks, supply of missile boats and other accompanying
military technique. In fact, the geopolitical importance of Azerbaijan
and 'unstable' neighbors obliges the country to raise its military
potential all the time. However, due to existence of many proposals
of the leading arms dealers, I think Azerbaijan may get additional
privileges as a "gratitude" for each purchase of this kind especially
that it has a choice between the United States, Turkey, Israel and
Ukraine. Thus, Russia has someone to compete while Azerbaijan has
someone to choose between.
Can we believe the Russian president who says Russia, as the Caucasus
state, is extremely interested in the soonest resolution of the
Karabaakh conflict and therefore, it will further take measures
for settlement?
The life in the Middle East taught me not to believe any word. I would
not say that Russia is interested in the full scale war. In fact, no
one, even very odious regimes, are interested in such a war. However,
no one is against local wars, especially if they are controlled. All
leading arms dealers are interested in international conflicts and
they constantly encourage their participants in their intention to
arm and get military superiority and then try to settle the problem.
Unfortunately, unless there is the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan will
be interested in 'partnership' with both Russia and America and will
have to take account of their strategic interests. On the other hand,
Russia will be obliged to take into account Azerbaijan's interests in
other spheres and other neighbors by trying to prove its importance
in the region to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan must be able to take advantage
of this moment and settle at least a part of its problems.
How will this Russia's intensification influence the South Caucasus
and a wider region?
In fact, in the Caucasus Russia is trying to apply the US model
of conduct in the Middle East and in particular in the issue of
Israel-Palestine confrontation. The negotiations here are also
intensified only in period of election campaigns in both America and
Israel. The periodical intensification of hostilities up to local wars
and everything goes anew. In the result, all neighbors are obliged to
rearm in order to "preserve: the military parity which is constantly
violated by either America or Russia.
For example, it is proven that in period of the second Lebanese
war the terror organization of Hezbollah fought against Israel by
"Russian" arms supplied to Syria. Meanwhile, today Russia is trying
to supply Syria with new missile complexes and Jachont missiles
intended to fight ships at a distance of up to 300 kilometers and
capable of carrying warheads of up to 200 kg. Israel considers
not without grounds that they may get to Hezbollah terrorists and
therefore it starts discussing purchase of new fighters in America
which immediately causes the protest of Egypt and Jordan who are
allegedly losing military parity. In the result, America is "obliged"
to modernize their armed forces. So, who has gained here?
See how differently the military capacities of Caspian littoral states
are declared today, how many publications about ships and cruisers of
different countries there are in press. There are so many proposals
for modernization of their marine fleet. Don't you think that we have
already seen this script?
However, seeing such a Middle Eastern script of developments,
Azerbaijan can make right conclusions and become an independent
player in its region especially that it has the economic component
and political opportunities for this step.
Yuri Bocharov is political technologist, PR-manager (Israel), foreign
member of the Russian academy of natural science, member of a number
of expert councils of Israel and Russia.
From: A. Papazian
news.az
Sept 10 2010
Azerbaijan
Yuriy Bocharov News.Az interviews Yuri Bocharov, political
technologist, PR-manager (Israel).
Some experts believe the main event in the Russian President's visit
to Azerbaijan was the signing of the final document on the state
border, others say it is the agreement on raising volumes of export
of Azerbaijani gas to Russia, while the rest say that by his visit to
Yerevan and Baku Medvedev showed to the West that Russia is the main
power in the region. And what are your impressions of Medvedev's visit?
There is a saying "To do a good face in a bad game", which means to
try to conceal trouble and problems under external calmness. Russia has
troubles in both political and especially economic sense. But it needs,
if exactly, it 'wants' to play a role of the leading political force
not only in our region. President Medvedev is striving to show his
international importance on the background of the "working" success
(and shortages) of Premier Putin.
I think the whole visit is a formality, Moscow's attempt to justify
itself for Armenian projects. In fact, Moscow had nothing to offer Baku
except for its explanations. From here come the so-called projects
of the century. Have there been any differences on delimitation of
state border? Is this the level of presidents? On the background of
the volumes of oil products supplies to other countries and Iran's
intention to get up to 10 bn cubic meters of gas a year, the new
agreement with Russia for supply of 2 bn cubic meters of gas seems
not too significant. In fact, President Aliyev by his actions has
"saved Dmitriy Medvedev's image" by his actions, like we say in
the East by signing a number of protocols thus making this a state
visit. Let's take into the essence of Russia's economic offers in
the sphere of energy sources. We can view this either a bribe to
Azerbaijan for their pro-Armenian policy or as a long-term project
on the settlement of their own interests.
Why did Gazprom proposes the allegedly extremely favorable economic
offers by means of which Azerbaijan can sell its gas by European
prices paying to Russia only for transportation. Here we see Russia's
intention to fill its pipelines by 100% since it does not only bring
tens of millions of dollars a year to its treasury but also freezes
construction of alternative ways of oil supplies to Europe. In fact,
Russia wants to transit all Azerbaijani energy sources by any means
even by raising the amount of deals in order to remain the main
supplier of energy sources, which means to be the main player in
the European space. Meanwhile, Gazprom's offer to purchase share of
BP which is operating the BTC pipeline shows Russia's intention to
control others' oil flows.
Which goals do you think Russia pursues by ensuring its long-term
military presence in Ukraine and Armenia?
Like most superpowers of the world Russia pursues only its own state
interests.
In any form Russia is losing its influence in the Caucasus and in
the entire Middle East. Today the military base in Gryumri (Armenia)
is factually its last bastion in the region which helps it control
the air space of Turkey, Iran, Georgia, Azerbaijan and defend its
borders at a distance.
Meanwhile, Sevastopol is the last serious marine base of Russia
in the Black Sea. After losing it, Russia will lose the Black and
Mediterranean Seas and along with them its influence in the Middle
East.
Today Russia is taking huge efforts to preserve its influence in the
region including supplies of free arms to Armenia and the writing
off Ukraine's debt partially.
On the other hand, where can Armenia surrender, who needs it in
its current state? Who wants to be friends with it and why? The
leading geopolitical players view Armenia only as their platform in
the Caucasus.
Do you think it is possible to believe Russian leadership who states
that the recently signed agreement on the Russian military base in
Armenia is not targeting Azerbaijan?
What does sincerity of people who are willing to rule the world mean?
Though the tasks of the 102nd Russian military base provide for the
strategic stability of Russia's external border, we should not forget
that they are equipped with anti-missile S-300 complexes and MiG-29
fighters while the staff is about 5,000 people. Meanwhile, according
to different sources, almost the whole staff consists of Russian
citizens of Armenian ethnic. In fact, the base is de-facto a part of
the Armenian armed forces, supported by Russian money and technique.
So whose interests will the base defend in case of the armed conflict?
Though Russia will hardly intervene into the armed conflict in the
territory of NKO, it cannot be said about the Armenian armed forces
including the soldiers of the 102nd 'Russian' military base.
Why do you think Russia is raising its military cooperation with
Armenia and simultaneously agrees to export S-300 complexes to
Azerbaijan?
As they say: "Nothing personal, only business!"
We should not forget that Russia is the world's second arms suppliers
after the United States, while its revenues from the military
industrial complex occupy a significant place in its budget after
supplies of energy sources and crude. In addition, Russia is obliged
to supply arms to Armenia free of charge, while it can get the real
price from Azerbaijan. In addition, according to other estimates,
it is the same S-300 complex, which Russia was trying to supply to
Iran but could not do this because of sanctions. It means that if
Azerbaijan gets it, this will rescue Russia once again.
I would like to draw your attention to a number of other military
proposals received from Russia, in particular, on modernization
of MiGs and tanks, supply of missile boats and other accompanying
military technique. In fact, the geopolitical importance of Azerbaijan
and 'unstable' neighbors obliges the country to raise its military
potential all the time. However, due to existence of many proposals
of the leading arms dealers, I think Azerbaijan may get additional
privileges as a "gratitude" for each purchase of this kind especially
that it has a choice between the United States, Turkey, Israel and
Ukraine. Thus, Russia has someone to compete while Azerbaijan has
someone to choose between.
Can we believe the Russian president who says Russia, as the Caucasus
state, is extremely interested in the soonest resolution of the
Karabaakh conflict and therefore, it will further take measures
for settlement?
The life in the Middle East taught me not to believe any word. I would
not say that Russia is interested in the full scale war. In fact, no
one, even very odious regimes, are interested in such a war. However,
no one is against local wars, especially if they are controlled. All
leading arms dealers are interested in international conflicts and
they constantly encourage their participants in their intention to
arm and get military superiority and then try to settle the problem.
Unfortunately, unless there is the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan will
be interested in 'partnership' with both Russia and America and will
have to take account of their strategic interests. On the other hand,
Russia will be obliged to take into account Azerbaijan's interests in
other spheres and other neighbors by trying to prove its importance
in the region to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan must be able to take advantage
of this moment and settle at least a part of its problems.
How will this Russia's intensification influence the South Caucasus
and a wider region?
In fact, in the Caucasus Russia is trying to apply the US model
of conduct in the Middle East and in particular in the issue of
Israel-Palestine confrontation. The negotiations here are also
intensified only in period of election campaigns in both America and
Israel. The periodical intensification of hostilities up to local wars
and everything goes anew. In the result, all neighbors are obliged to
rearm in order to "preserve: the military parity which is constantly
violated by either America or Russia.
For example, it is proven that in period of the second Lebanese
war the terror organization of Hezbollah fought against Israel by
"Russian" arms supplied to Syria. Meanwhile, today Russia is trying
to supply Syria with new missile complexes and Jachont missiles
intended to fight ships at a distance of up to 300 kilometers and
capable of carrying warheads of up to 200 kg. Israel considers
not without grounds that they may get to Hezbollah terrorists and
therefore it starts discussing purchase of new fighters in America
which immediately causes the protest of Egypt and Jordan who are
allegedly losing military parity. In the result, America is "obliged"
to modernize their armed forces. So, who has gained here?
See how differently the military capacities of Caspian littoral states
are declared today, how many publications about ships and cruisers of
different countries there are in press. There are so many proposals
for modernization of their marine fleet. Don't you think that we have
already seen this script?
However, seeing such a Middle Eastern script of developments,
Azerbaijan can make right conclusions and become an independent
player in its region especially that it has the economic component
and political opportunities for this step.
Yuri Bocharov is political technologist, PR-manager (Israel), foreign
member of the Russian academy of natural science, member of a number
of expert councils of Israel and Russia.
From: A. Papazian