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FAILED DIPLOMACY?: AZERBAIJAN RECALLS ANTI-ARMENIAN RESOLUTION FROM UN
Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
Analysis | 10.09.10 | 13:10
The 65th session of UN General Assembly has started.
Baku has withdrawn from the agenda of the 65th session of the United
Nations General Assembly a resolution dealing with what it describes as
"occupied territories of Azerbaijan", it transpired Thursday evening
when the draft was to have been discussed.
The resolution, in fact, condemned the "occupation" by Armenia of
parts of Azerbaijan and raised humanitarian issues, in particular
relating to refugees.
Armenian and Russian diplomacies may have played a role in this
development, but the earlier events show that Azerbaijan had been
under pressure from all sides, including from the West. Experts say
this pressure is connected with the current reluctance of authorities
in Baku to join Western energy projects and sanctions against Iran.
Azerbaijan is heading for parliamentary elections due in November. The
oil-rich country's authorities, and its president Ilham Aliyev, in
particular, try to take steps to prove their unlimited and uncontested
power in the country. They are taking the initiative at the UN Security
Council, trying to prove their advantage in the Karabakh settlement.
A huge flag (35 meters wide and 70 meters long, weighing 350 kg) was
raised in Baku on a 162-meter-tall flagstaff at Aliyev's initiative on
September 1. At the ceremony the Azeri leader pledged that a similar
flag would be raised over Karabakh in the near future. His statement
came amid intensified incursions along the line of contact between
Karabakh and Azeri armed forces.
The flag and its replacement were torn shortly by the wind (with
footage of a torn Azeri flag spreading quickly throughout video
sharing websites) and, now, the initiative at the UN has also failed.
Meanwhile, attempts to infiltrate Armenian-held points along the line
of contact led to deaths of Azeri combatants and to condemnation by
international officials.
Aliyev's position is indeed unenviable. Two months before the election,
the International Crisis Group (ICG), an influential international
organization analyzing conflicts around the world, published a report
titled "Azerbaijan - Vulnerable Stability".
"Ilham Aliyev's presidency has been marked by stabilization of the
political life of the country and economic growth driven by oil
exports. This stability, however, has come with the consolidation of
authoritarian rule, greater suppression of freedoms and an increased
reliance by elites on corruption and patronage networks to dominate
virtually all aspects of public life," the ICG report reads.
Then European Union Special Representative for the South Caucasus
Peter Semneby visited Baku. He stated: "I think that the Azerbaijani
leadership is aware of the enormous risks and potential losses
connected with attempts to resolve the Karabakh conflict militarily.
Clashes may get out of control."
Azerbaijan should not rely on its vast hydrocarbon resources, said
head of the EU Mission in Georgia Roland Kobia at the First Caucasus
Forum on Renewable Energy in Baku on September 7.
Experts do not rule out that in order to redress his situation Aliyev
may resort to fresh military adventure in Karabakh.
From: A. Papazian
Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
Analysis | 10.09.10 | 13:10
The 65th session of UN General Assembly has started.
Baku has withdrawn from the agenda of the 65th session of the United
Nations General Assembly a resolution dealing with what it describes as
"occupied territories of Azerbaijan", it transpired Thursday evening
when the draft was to have been discussed.
The resolution, in fact, condemned the "occupation" by Armenia of
parts of Azerbaijan and raised humanitarian issues, in particular
relating to refugees.
Armenian and Russian diplomacies may have played a role in this
development, but the earlier events show that Azerbaijan had been
under pressure from all sides, including from the West. Experts say
this pressure is connected with the current reluctance of authorities
in Baku to join Western energy projects and sanctions against Iran.
Azerbaijan is heading for parliamentary elections due in November. The
oil-rich country's authorities, and its president Ilham Aliyev, in
particular, try to take steps to prove their unlimited and uncontested
power in the country. They are taking the initiative at the UN Security
Council, trying to prove their advantage in the Karabakh settlement.
A huge flag (35 meters wide and 70 meters long, weighing 350 kg) was
raised in Baku on a 162-meter-tall flagstaff at Aliyev's initiative on
September 1. At the ceremony the Azeri leader pledged that a similar
flag would be raised over Karabakh in the near future. His statement
came amid intensified incursions along the line of contact between
Karabakh and Azeri armed forces.
The flag and its replacement were torn shortly by the wind (with
footage of a torn Azeri flag spreading quickly throughout video
sharing websites) and, now, the initiative at the UN has also failed.
Meanwhile, attempts to infiltrate Armenian-held points along the line
of contact led to deaths of Azeri combatants and to condemnation by
international officials.
Aliyev's position is indeed unenviable. Two months before the election,
the International Crisis Group (ICG), an influential international
organization analyzing conflicts around the world, published a report
titled "Azerbaijan - Vulnerable Stability".
"Ilham Aliyev's presidency has been marked by stabilization of the
political life of the country and economic growth driven by oil
exports. This stability, however, has come with the consolidation of
authoritarian rule, greater suppression of freedoms and an increased
reliance by elites on corruption and patronage networks to dominate
virtually all aspects of public life," the ICG report reads.
Then European Union Special Representative for the South Caucasus
Peter Semneby visited Baku. He stated: "I think that the Azerbaijani
leadership is aware of the enormous risks and potential losses
connected with attempts to resolve the Karabakh conflict militarily.
Clashes may get out of control."
Azerbaijan should not rely on its vast hydrocarbon resources, said
head of the EU Mission in Georgia Roland Kobia at the First Caucasus
Forum on Renewable Energy in Baku on September 7.
Experts do not rule out that in order to redress his situation Aliyev
may resort to fresh military adventure in Karabakh.
From: A. Papazian