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One must always be ready for a trick from Baku
Azerbaijan has calculated that if Turkey is chairman of the General
Assembly of the UN, the resolution can be easily passed.
In the UN happened what was to happen: reluctant to look more
ridiculous in the eyes of the world community, Azerbaijan called back
her notorious resolution. Hardly can she have done it voluntarily,
because of the current geopolitical realities. To Ilham Aliyev's
credit it must be said that he endured rather long, but finally
realized that he, his oil and gas will not outweigh the common sense
and energy projects of multinational companies, although it often
happens the other way round.
September 10, 2010PanARMENIAN.Net - The latest visit of the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairs to the region is already a sign that Baku's position
in the settlement of the conflict is rather shaky, and no one is any
more caught at the endless mentions of a military solution or the
already boring talks about the return of Azerbaijani refugees. Despite
the fact that the co-chairs were, as always, diplomatic in their
expressions, visiting Stepanakert through the contact line of NKR
Defense Army and Azerbaijani Armed Forces can also be considered
symbolic. If you distinguish all the gibberish from the Azerbaijani
side, it becomes clear that the mediators simply wanted to make sure
from which side and how the ceasefire regime is violated. Moreover,
both the OSCE Minsk Group and EU Special Representative for the South
Caucasus, Peter Semneby emphasized several times that all the refugees
are meant, including Armenians deported from Azerbaijan and from
Nagorno Karabakh.
But these are already details. The most important thing is that
Yerevan hastened to term withdrawal of the resolution as `victory of
Armenian diplomacy'. But it must be admitted that this is just a
temporary success, which, if not developed, will remain only a
`success' and will give Baku a handle to introduce new resolutions.
But Baku has already missed her chance. Azerbaijan has calculated that
if Turkey is chairman of the General Assembly of the UN, the
resolution can be easily passed with her help, especially since the
project is supported by the countries of the Organization of Islamic
Conference (OIC), and, with some reservations, by the League of Arab
States (LAS). Things are much more complicated with LAS, because the
Arab world does not stand new Turkic-speaking and Iranian-speaking
organizations and therefore it would be naïve to speak of the
unconditional support to Azerbaijan, for example, by Egypt. Under the
current circumstances, the LAS would rather support Armenia, because
Yerevan poses no threat to Islam from the Arabic point of view.
President Mubarak, who in due time banned extremist groups like the
Muslim Brotherhood, did a good turn to Egypt and to the Arab world in
general. Saudi Arabia and the smaller emirates do not play an
essential role in the Middle East game and therefore it is right for
the LAS to be guided by the opinion of the OSCE Minsk Group. On a
large scale, even the Islamic countries do not need much to support
Azerbaijan, since most of them do not even know the place of
Azerbaijan on the map and that of Nagorno-Karabakh, all themore. All
this, however, does not mean that Armenia can relax until September
2011. One must always be ready for a trick from Baku, and if she
failed in the UN, she'll try to carry the resolution to the OSCE, or
at worst to NATO. All these options are so hollow, that they are not
even worth discussing. Nevertheless, it is necessary to always be
ready. International community very easily changes its priorities, and
if the interests of today require the support of one of the
conflicting parties, tomorrow everything may change upside down. We
must be prepared especially for that.
In any case the fact that the resolution was withdrawn is a positive
occurrence. Very little is left to wait; after the parliamentary
elections of November 7 Baku will not feel like dealing with Karabakh,
because opposition is getting stronger in Azerbaijan and the power of
the Aliyev clan is not strong enough not to be overthrown. Dispersal
of the opposition (and it is inevitable), bloody as always, will once
again prove that Azerbaijan has no place in the list of democratic
states. Quite like Turkey, but that is a separate topic.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
From: A. Papazian
Azerbaijan has calculated that if Turkey is chairman of the General
Assembly of the UN, the resolution can be easily passed.
In the UN happened what was to happen: reluctant to look more
ridiculous in the eyes of the world community, Azerbaijan called back
her notorious resolution. Hardly can she have done it voluntarily,
because of the current geopolitical realities. To Ilham Aliyev's
credit it must be said that he endured rather long, but finally
realized that he, his oil and gas will not outweigh the common sense
and energy projects of multinational companies, although it often
happens the other way round.
September 10, 2010PanARMENIAN.Net - The latest visit of the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairs to the region is already a sign that Baku's position
in the settlement of the conflict is rather shaky, and no one is any
more caught at the endless mentions of a military solution or the
already boring talks about the return of Azerbaijani refugees. Despite
the fact that the co-chairs were, as always, diplomatic in their
expressions, visiting Stepanakert through the contact line of NKR
Defense Army and Azerbaijani Armed Forces can also be considered
symbolic. If you distinguish all the gibberish from the Azerbaijani
side, it becomes clear that the mediators simply wanted to make sure
from which side and how the ceasefire regime is violated. Moreover,
both the OSCE Minsk Group and EU Special Representative for the South
Caucasus, Peter Semneby emphasized several times that all the refugees
are meant, including Armenians deported from Azerbaijan and from
Nagorno Karabakh.
But these are already details. The most important thing is that
Yerevan hastened to term withdrawal of the resolution as `victory of
Armenian diplomacy'. But it must be admitted that this is just a
temporary success, which, if not developed, will remain only a
`success' and will give Baku a handle to introduce new resolutions.
But Baku has already missed her chance. Azerbaijan has calculated that
if Turkey is chairman of the General Assembly of the UN, the
resolution can be easily passed with her help, especially since the
project is supported by the countries of the Organization of Islamic
Conference (OIC), and, with some reservations, by the League of Arab
States (LAS). Things are much more complicated with LAS, because the
Arab world does not stand new Turkic-speaking and Iranian-speaking
organizations and therefore it would be naïve to speak of the
unconditional support to Azerbaijan, for example, by Egypt. Under the
current circumstances, the LAS would rather support Armenia, because
Yerevan poses no threat to Islam from the Arabic point of view.
President Mubarak, who in due time banned extremist groups like the
Muslim Brotherhood, did a good turn to Egypt and to the Arab world in
general. Saudi Arabia and the smaller emirates do not play an
essential role in the Middle East game and therefore it is right for
the LAS to be guided by the opinion of the OSCE Minsk Group. On a
large scale, even the Islamic countries do not need much to support
Azerbaijan, since most of them do not even know the place of
Azerbaijan on the map and that of Nagorno-Karabakh, all themore. All
this, however, does not mean that Armenia can relax until September
2011. One must always be ready for a trick from Baku, and if she
failed in the UN, she'll try to carry the resolution to the OSCE, or
at worst to NATO. All these options are so hollow, that they are not
even worth discussing. Nevertheless, it is necessary to always be
ready. International community very easily changes its priorities, and
if the interests of today require the support of one of the
conflicting parties, tomorrow everything may change upside down. We
must be prepared especially for that.
In any case the fact that the resolution was withdrawn is a positive
occurrence. Very little is left to wait; after the parliamentary
elections of November 7 Baku will not feel like dealing with Karabakh,
because opposition is getting stronger in Azerbaijan and the power of
the Aliyev clan is not strong enough not to be overthrown. Dispersal
of the opposition (and it is inevitable), bloody as always, will once
again prove that Azerbaijan has no place in the list of democratic
states. Quite like Turkey, but that is a separate topic.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
From: A. Papazian