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RUSSIA WINNER IN KARABAKH CONFLICT
The Messenger
Aug 4 2011
Georgia
All the attempts at resolving the Karabakh conflict have proved
fruitless. Recently, Russia has been very active in this heated issue,
however no visible results have been yielded; moreover comments have
been made on the situation which suggests that this tense situation
could develop into confrontation. Russian analyst Pavel Felgengauer
in particular predicts the possibility of military action in Karabakh.
This analyst is famous for the fact that he had predicted the Russian
attack on Georgia in August 2008 well in advance. Some Georgian
analysts think however that in reality Felgengauer is a "spokesman"
for Russian plans and with his prognosis he prepares the public for
the forthcoming developments. In his interview to radio Liberty he
stated that Armenia and Azerbaijan are actively getting ready for
military confrontation. Today neither of these sides are ready to
make serious concessions so the conflict could escalate into a serious
regional war. According to the analyst all the mediators so far could
only facilitate certain loosening of the tension, but nothing more.
Both the EU and Russia take the position that everything must be done
to prevent military action. Felgengauer thinks that Russia has been
thinking of deploying its military forces as a peacekeeping mission
between the conflicting sides. According to him Russia considers
the region as a major sphere of its influence historically and this
possible development of course will serve its interest. Felgengauer
thinks that military confrontation will not start in 2011. He also
considers that openly Russia will not take sides. There is a Russian
military base located in Armenia but the Russians do not have land
access to this base. The base is located on the border of Turkey so
presumably it is not in place to deter Azerbaijan but rather to repel
Turkey, thinks Felgengauer.
Georgian public organization Experts' Club commented on Felgengauer's
statement and labeled it as the voice of Moscow interest. According
to this opinion, the Kremlin wants to deploy peacekeeping forces
between the rival sides. But nobody should forget the result of Russian
peacekeeping forces deployed in Georgia's breakaway territories. The
Azerbaijani leadership knows about Georgia's experience and it is
against the deployment of Russian forces as peacekeeping units.
Besides, Russia is openly recognized as a strategic partner of
one of the conflicting sides - Armenia. Experts' Club thinks that
Felgengauer's position reveals Moscow's interests to confront
militarily Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this case Russia will become
able to further secure its dominant position in the south Caucasus.
Moreover the Kremlin will try to involve Georgia into the conflict
with possibly one eye on Georgia's eastern regions.
Meanwhile Azerbaijan and Armenia are continuing to increase their
military capacity. Armenia is sure that it will not lose the possible
war, because it relies on Russian support. Azeris hope that Russia
will not get involved in any possible conflict in pursuit of its
own interests.
So, to summarize the current situation is very comfortable for Moscow
because there is neither peace nor war in Karabakh and both sides
appeal to Russia to be the master of ceremonies. If war breaks out
again, Russia will remain a key player in exercising its influence
in the region. Therefore, no matter what happens, Russia is the winner.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
The Messenger
Aug 4 2011
Georgia
All the attempts at resolving the Karabakh conflict have proved
fruitless. Recently, Russia has been very active in this heated issue,
however no visible results have been yielded; moreover comments have
been made on the situation which suggests that this tense situation
could develop into confrontation. Russian analyst Pavel Felgengauer
in particular predicts the possibility of military action in Karabakh.
This analyst is famous for the fact that he had predicted the Russian
attack on Georgia in August 2008 well in advance. Some Georgian
analysts think however that in reality Felgengauer is a "spokesman"
for Russian plans and with his prognosis he prepares the public for
the forthcoming developments. In his interview to radio Liberty he
stated that Armenia and Azerbaijan are actively getting ready for
military confrontation. Today neither of these sides are ready to
make serious concessions so the conflict could escalate into a serious
regional war. According to the analyst all the mediators so far could
only facilitate certain loosening of the tension, but nothing more.
Both the EU and Russia take the position that everything must be done
to prevent military action. Felgengauer thinks that Russia has been
thinking of deploying its military forces as a peacekeeping mission
between the conflicting sides. According to him Russia considers
the region as a major sphere of its influence historically and this
possible development of course will serve its interest. Felgengauer
thinks that military confrontation will not start in 2011. He also
considers that openly Russia will not take sides. There is a Russian
military base located in Armenia but the Russians do not have land
access to this base. The base is located on the border of Turkey so
presumably it is not in place to deter Azerbaijan but rather to repel
Turkey, thinks Felgengauer.
Georgian public organization Experts' Club commented on Felgengauer's
statement and labeled it as the voice of Moscow interest. According
to this opinion, the Kremlin wants to deploy peacekeeping forces
between the rival sides. But nobody should forget the result of Russian
peacekeeping forces deployed in Georgia's breakaway territories. The
Azerbaijani leadership knows about Georgia's experience and it is
against the deployment of Russian forces as peacekeeping units.
Besides, Russia is openly recognized as a strategic partner of
one of the conflicting sides - Armenia. Experts' Club thinks that
Felgengauer's position reveals Moscow's interests to confront
militarily Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this case Russia will become
able to further secure its dominant position in the south Caucasus.
Moreover the Kremlin will try to involve Georgia into the conflict
with possibly one eye on Georgia's eastern regions.
Meanwhile Azerbaijan and Armenia are continuing to increase their
military capacity. Armenia is sure that it will not lose the possible
war, because it relies on Russian support. Azeris hope that Russia
will not get involved in any possible conflict in pursuit of its
own interests.
So, to summarize the current situation is very comfortable for Moscow
because there is neither peace nor war in Karabakh and both sides
appeal to Russia to be the master of ceremonies. If war breaks out
again, Russia will remain a key player in exercising its influence
in the region. Therefore, no matter what happens, Russia is the winner.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress