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HULIQ.com, SC
Aug 6 2011
Azerbaijan could become net oil importer by 2030, state report says
Submitted by Sandy Smith on 2011-08-06
Declining oil reserves starting in 2013 combined with falling
commodity prices could throw the Azeri economy and government budget
into a tailspin.
While the Azeri government's own Center for Economic and Social
Development says that the country is in the midst of an oil boom as it
develops huge reserves in the Caspian Sea, government forecasts call
for oil revenues to peak in 2012 and reserves to peak in the following
year. The rate of decline, the government says, could turn the country
into a net oil importer as soon as 2030.
Oil production is already running below last year's pace. For the
first six months of this year, Azerbaijan produced 23.8 million metric
tons (174.5 million barrels) of oil, a drop of 1.445 million metric
tons (10.596 million barrels), or 5.6%, from last year's production to
date. Natural gas production is also off. The 12.91 billion cubic
meters produced in the first six months of 2011 is 238 million cubic
meters, or 2.1%, below the figure for the same period last year. That
figure casts some doubt on Azeri government forecasts that call for
the country to produce 29.13 billion cubic meters of gas this year,
7.8% more than was produced last year.
Combined with falling commodity prices for oil and gas, the production
declines spell trouble in the long run for the Azeri economy and
government budget. Azerbaijan has relied on oil exports to power its
economy, and a sustained fall in those would drive up government
budget deficits and interest rates thanks to declining tax revenue.
The hit to the economy and government budget could even affect the
ongoing dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority Armenian region
within Azerbaijans borders. The inhabitants of the region have waged a
fight for autonomy dating back to the late 1980s in which neighboring
Armenia has taken interest. Azerbaijan has used oil revenues to
suppress the autonomy movement and hold off on any negotiations or
moves that might result in autonomy for the region. A severe falloff
in revenues could force the government to the bargaining table with
the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
http://www.huliq.com/8738/azerbaijan-could-become-net-oil-importer-2030-state-report-says
Aug 6 2011
Azerbaijan could become net oil importer by 2030, state report says
Submitted by Sandy Smith on 2011-08-06
Declining oil reserves starting in 2013 combined with falling
commodity prices could throw the Azeri economy and government budget
into a tailspin.
While the Azeri government's own Center for Economic and Social
Development says that the country is in the midst of an oil boom as it
develops huge reserves in the Caspian Sea, government forecasts call
for oil revenues to peak in 2012 and reserves to peak in the following
year. The rate of decline, the government says, could turn the country
into a net oil importer as soon as 2030.
Oil production is already running below last year's pace. For the
first six months of this year, Azerbaijan produced 23.8 million metric
tons (174.5 million barrels) of oil, a drop of 1.445 million metric
tons (10.596 million barrels), or 5.6%, from last year's production to
date. Natural gas production is also off. The 12.91 billion cubic
meters produced in the first six months of 2011 is 238 million cubic
meters, or 2.1%, below the figure for the same period last year. That
figure casts some doubt on Azeri government forecasts that call for
the country to produce 29.13 billion cubic meters of gas this year,
7.8% more than was produced last year.
Combined with falling commodity prices for oil and gas, the production
declines spell trouble in the long run for the Azeri economy and
government budget. Azerbaijan has relied on oil exports to power its
economy, and a sustained fall in those would drive up government
budget deficits and interest rates thanks to declining tax revenue.
The hit to the economy and government budget could even affect the
ongoing dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority Armenian region
within Azerbaijans borders. The inhabitants of the region have waged a
fight for autonomy dating back to the late 1980s in which neighboring
Armenia has taken interest. Azerbaijan has used oil revenues to
suppress the autonomy movement and hold off on any negotiations or
moves that might result in autonomy for the region. A severe falloff
in revenues could force the government to the bargaining table with
the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
http://www.huliq.com/8738/azerbaijan-could-become-net-oil-importer-2030-state-report-says