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RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR 'A DETERRENT' TO ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN
news.az
Aug 10, 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political expert Leyla Aliyeva.
On 9 August, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev discussed the Karabakh
conflict with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Sochi, while he
will do the same at a meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
in Kazakhstan on 12 August. Do you expect success from these meetings?
Russia itself will remain within certain limitations until it
changes and until the political situation changes. These limitations
of domestic politics are reflected in Russia's ability to resolve
conflicts. I can see serious changes neither within Russia itself nor
in its interests. Therefore, I do not think that there could be some
serious progress in Russia's mediation.
Then how can you explain Russian President Medvedev's active mediation?
They will hold elections next year. The pre-election situation and
foreign policy also play a role here. Western countries are now more
preoccupied with their own problems, and Russia is trying to use this
in an attempt to regain its influence in the Karabakh conflict after
what happened in Georgia.
Everybody understands that if the Karabakh conflict is resolved,
whoever helped reach a settlement will hold sway in this region.
Russia, therefore, wants to show that it holds the key to the Karabakh
conflict and that it can turn this key. But in reality, the key turns
only so far.
Do you see any chances of a final resolution of this conflict?
Breakthrough can be achieved only through strong political dynamics
in all three countries.
Is Russia the third country?
Yes, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Geographically, the region is
not in the critical interests of the EU or US. Relative stability
is maintained. Stability in this region is sufficient to meet the
fundamental interests of all the great powers. Therefore, a crucial
breakthrough in the Karabakh conflict depends on the conflicting
sides themselves, and on Russia, but only, I repeat, if the political
situation in all three countries changes.
Did the 2008 Russia-Georgia war speed up resolution of the Karabakh
conflict?
It also intensified diplomatic activity, scared the participants in
the Karabakh conflict a little and prevented military ventures. It
was, therefore, a deterrent and the August war actually in some way
contributed to the continuation of the status quo. But this foreign
diplomatic activity is still not enough to achieve a breakthrough in
resolving the conflict.
F.H.
news.az
Aug 10, 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political expert Leyla Aliyeva.
On 9 August, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev discussed the Karabakh
conflict with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Sochi, while he
will do the same at a meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
in Kazakhstan on 12 August. Do you expect success from these meetings?
Russia itself will remain within certain limitations until it
changes and until the political situation changes. These limitations
of domestic politics are reflected in Russia's ability to resolve
conflicts. I can see serious changes neither within Russia itself nor
in its interests. Therefore, I do not think that there could be some
serious progress in Russia's mediation.
Then how can you explain Russian President Medvedev's active mediation?
They will hold elections next year. The pre-election situation and
foreign policy also play a role here. Western countries are now more
preoccupied with their own problems, and Russia is trying to use this
in an attempt to regain its influence in the Karabakh conflict after
what happened in Georgia.
Everybody understands that if the Karabakh conflict is resolved,
whoever helped reach a settlement will hold sway in this region.
Russia, therefore, wants to show that it holds the key to the Karabakh
conflict and that it can turn this key. But in reality, the key turns
only so far.
Do you see any chances of a final resolution of this conflict?
Breakthrough can be achieved only through strong political dynamics
in all three countries.
Is Russia the third country?
Yes, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Geographically, the region is
not in the critical interests of the EU or US. Relative stability
is maintained. Stability in this region is sufficient to meet the
fundamental interests of all the great powers. Therefore, a crucial
breakthrough in the Karabakh conflict depends on the conflicting
sides themselves, and on Russia, but only, I repeat, if the political
situation in all three countries changes.
Did the 2008 Russia-Georgia war speed up resolution of the Karabakh
conflict?
It also intensified diplomatic activity, scared the participants in
the Karabakh conflict a little and prevented military ventures. It
was, therefore, a deterrent and the August war actually in some way
contributed to the continuation of the status quo. But this foreign
diplomatic activity is still not enough to achieve a breakthrough in
resolving the conflict.
F.H.