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IRAN: TROUBLED NEIGHBOR OR SERIOUS THREAT?
by Ferhad Mehdiyev & Zaur Shiriyev*
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-253603-iran-troubled-neighbor-or-serious-threat-by-ferhad-mehdiyev-zaur-shiriyev*.html
Aug 12 2011
Turkey
A senior Iranian military commander, Maj. Gen. Seyyed Hassan
Firouzabadi, has accused Azerbaijan of anti-Islamic policies.
The general's statement has destabilized Iranian-Azerbaijani relations
and sparked serious concern in Azerbaijan. Firouzabadi warned the
Azerbaijani president of a "dark and uncertain future" and the revolt
of "100,000 [men] in Aran" (the south-central area of Azerbaijan).
This threat virtually coincided with President Ilham Aliyev's reception
of ambassadors and heads of mission from Muslim countries in Baku,
to mark the holy month of Ramadan on Aug. 11.
Azerbaijan has opened a political dialogue with Iran. The Foreign
Ministry (MFA) has sent a letter of protest to Tehran, and several
government officials have directly accused Tehran of interfering
in Azerbaijani domestic affairs. In addition, the MFA has demanded
that Iran refrain from making such inflammatory accusations, take
immediate action to prevent anything similar from happening again,
and to clarify Firouzabadi's remarks. The head of the Azerbaijani
presidential administration's foreign relations department, Novruz
Mammadov, has said that "Azerbaijan has built and developed its ties
with Iran based on the principles of neighborliness, friendship and
mutually beneficial cooperation."
While this is a troubling development, it is not entirely surprising.
The recent allegations reflect a continuation and intensification
of the policy Iran adopted last December. This is exacerbated by
competition for ownership of the state between factions of Iran's
ruling elite: Statements of aggression towards a Muslim neighbor could
stimulate a tense debate, which could be helpful to the mullahs' regime
to divert increasing international interest in domestic politics in
Tehran. At the moment, there is a powerful and growing belief in the
Middle East that Syria, one of Tehran's regional allies against the
US, is increasingly politically divided that and Turkey is gaining
influence throughout the Middle East. Tehran is keen to exploit the
unrest in Syria as a means of distracting the international media from
the domestic situation in Iran. US sanctions are likely to compound the
regime's problems, despite statements to the opposite effect made by
senior Iranian officials. If anything, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
behavior since taking office demonstrates that he is unlikely to make
concessions on regional issues in the event of US sanctions.
However, a local analyst in Baku takes a different view of recent
events. Commenting on Firouzabadi's statements, Azerbaijani Member
of Parliament Fazil Mustafa argues that "the Iranian general hates
Khomenei and the Iranian regime most of all, and so his statement can
be seen a sign of aggression motivated by a hatred of the Iranian
regime." On the other hand, this seems like more than a "struggle
between Iranian elites," given that this is not the first time
Firouzabadi has displayed antipathy towards Azerbaijan. He visited
Azerbaijan in June 2009 on behalf of Ahmadinejad, in an attempt to
prevent the planned visit of the Israeli president, informing Baku
that Iran wanted the meeting to be cancelled. When Iran recalled
its ambassador from Baku, Azerbaijan made clear that it will not
tolerate interference with internal affairs. The head of the political
analysis and information department at the Azerbaijani presidential
administration, Elnur Aslanov, gave an interview to local news agency
Mediaforum on June 23, 2009, in which he said that Iran must demand
that Armenia liberate the occupied Azerbaijani territories and refrain
from interfering with domestic issues in Azerbaijan. Now tensions
are increasing, and there is cause for serious concern.
It does not take a genius to guess that Iran has an interest in
exploiting any unrest or instability in Azerbaijan, to increase
its influence in the country. However, unlike Iran, Azerbaijan's
population is predominantly secular and therefore less responsive to
Tehran's traditional political tools. Iran is using radical groups
and the Islamic political party along with religious and educational
institutions to speak out against the Azerbaijani government. When
tensions rose between Baku and Tehran due to protests by the Islamic
party in Azerbaijan last December, triggered by a change in dress
code for secondary school students, Iranian clerics and officials
voiced their criticism. These statements increased the tension during
the protests.
Afterwards, amid statements of friendship by Iranian officials,
local analysts make clear that they distrust Iranian claims of a
"constructive position" or intentions of "friendship."
Some analysts said that to pander to Iran's demands to restore the
right to wear the hijab would defy Azerbaijan's Islamic heritage.
Tehran continued to say that "not [all] Iranian comments reflect
Tehran's official opinion." It's clear that Tehran sees Azerbaijan's
secular regime, and the greater liberty its population enjoys, as a
threat to the mullahs' regime. A lot of Iranian citizens travel to
Azerbaijan every year, where they are able to enjoy the freedoms they
are denied in Iran.
Iran also appears to be expressing its anger through Sahar TV, an
Iranian network which broadcasts in Azeri. Its programs regularly
contain criticism of Azerbaijani policies. In the meantime, Iranian
TV has announced its own version of "supporting Muslim solidarity,"
emphasizing their long-term goal to "wipe out the Zionists." Sahar
TV is often described as "the spokesman who says everything that the
Iranian government is too afraid to say directly." Even a fleeting
glance at the pro-government Iranian media shows that Azerbaijan is
being insulted and denigrated with worrying regularity. The Azerbaijani
authorities are accused of encouraging separatism, abandoning Islam
and advancing contacts with the West, particularly with the United
States and Israel. Tehran lacks any evidence to support claims of
"insubordinate activities" by Azerbaijan against Iran. This is despite
Azerbaijan's negotiation of the ongoing controversy surrounding
Iran's nuclear program: Baku has been caught in a careful balancing
act in implementing sanctions against Tehran, but it did not sign
the UN Security Council Resolution last June, a measure that imposed
additional sanctions on Iran for failing to demonstrate the peaceful
nature of its nuclear research program.
Aware of the grave consequences, Iran tries to present itself as an
advocate of a religion, which provokes this question in Baku: Why
does the Iranian regime support Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani
territories? Iran's officials and former civil servants frequently
make statements in support of the development of Iranian-Armenian
relations. These statements reflect anxiety about the arms build-up
in the region and the risk that the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict
will result in a new war. There are accusations against Azerbaijan
for developing its military industry. Iran's relations with Armenia
tend to demonstrate that Tehran's priority in the region is to promote
its national interests rather than advance any "religious dogmatism."
Tehran's foreign policy perceives the weakening of Azerbaijan as useful
for Iranian national interests, and therefore it has pursued a policy
of tacit support for Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
This assessment demonstrates how important it is for the international
community to seek to defuse tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan.
There is a serious possibility that the issue between the two countries
will one day feature prominently in the news.
*Dr.Farhad Mehdiyev is a senior faculty member in the international
law department of Qafqaz University. Zaur Shiriyev is a foreign policy
analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Baku, Azerbaijan,
and the executive editor of Caucasus International.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by Ferhad Mehdiyev & Zaur Shiriyev*
Today's Zaman
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-253603-iran-troubled-neighbor-or-serious-threat-by-ferhad-mehdiyev-zaur-shiriyev*.html
Aug 12 2011
Turkey
A senior Iranian military commander, Maj. Gen. Seyyed Hassan
Firouzabadi, has accused Azerbaijan of anti-Islamic policies.
The general's statement has destabilized Iranian-Azerbaijani relations
and sparked serious concern in Azerbaijan. Firouzabadi warned the
Azerbaijani president of a "dark and uncertain future" and the revolt
of "100,000 [men] in Aran" (the south-central area of Azerbaijan).
This threat virtually coincided with President Ilham Aliyev's reception
of ambassadors and heads of mission from Muslim countries in Baku,
to mark the holy month of Ramadan on Aug. 11.
Azerbaijan has opened a political dialogue with Iran. The Foreign
Ministry (MFA) has sent a letter of protest to Tehran, and several
government officials have directly accused Tehran of interfering
in Azerbaijani domestic affairs. In addition, the MFA has demanded
that Iran refrain from making such inflammatory accusations, take
immediate action to prevent anything similar from happening again,
and to clarify Firouzabadi's remarks. The head of the Azerbaijani
presidential administration's foreign relations department, Novruz
Mammadov, has said that "Azerbaijan has built and developed its ties
with Iran based on the principles of neighborliness, friendship and
mutually beneficial cooperation."
While this is a troubling development, it is not entirely surprising.
The recent allegations reflect a continuation and intensification
of the policy Iran adopted last December. This is exacerbated by
competition for ownership of the state between factions of Iran's
ruling elite: Statements of aggression towards a Muslim neighbor could
stimulate a tense debate, which could be helpful to the mullahs' regime
to divert increasing international interest in domestic politics in
Tehran. At the moment, there is a powerful and growing belief in the
Middle East that Syria, one of Tehran's regional allies against the
US, is increasingly politically divided that and Turkey is gaining
influence throughout the Middle East. Tehran is keen to exploit the
unrest in Syria as a means of distracting the international media from
the domestic situation in Iran. US sanctions are likely to compound the
regime's problems, despite statements to the opposite effect made by
senior Iranian officials. If anything, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
behavior since taking office demonstrates that he is unlikely to make
concessions on regional issues in the event of US sanctions.
However, a local analyst in Baku takes a different view of recent
events. Commenting on Firouzabadi's statements, Azerbaijani Member
of Parliament Fazil Mustafa argues that "the Iranian general hates
Khomenei and the Iranian regime most of all, and so his statement can
be seen a sign of aggression motivated by a hatred of the Iranian
regime." On the other hand, this seems like more than a "struggle
between Iranian elites," given that this is not the first time
Firouzabadi has displayed antipathy towards Azerbaijan. He visited
Azerbaijan in June 2009 on behalf of Ahmadinejad, in an attempt to
prevent the planned visit of the Israeli president, informing Baku
that Iran wanted the meeting to be cancelled. When Iran recalled
its ambassador from Baku, Azerbaijan made clear that it will not
tolerate interference with internal affairs. The head of the political
analysis and information department at the Azerbaijani presidential
administration, Elnur Aslanov, gave an interview to local news agency
Mediaforum on June 23, 2009, in which he said that Iran must demand
that Armenia liberate the occupied Azerbaijani territories and refrain
from interfering with domestic issues in Azerbaijan. Now tensions
are increasing, and there is cause for serious concern.
It does not take a genius to guess that Iran has an interest in
exploiting any unrest or instability in Azerbaijan, to increase
its influence in the country. However, unlike Iran, Azerbaijan's
population is predominantly secular and therefore less responsive to
Tehran's traditional political tools. Iran is using radical groups
and the Islamic political party along with religious and educational
institutions to speak out against the Azerbaijani government. When
tensions rose between Baku and Tehran due to protests by the Islamic
party in Azerbaijan last December, triggered by a change in dress
code for secondary school students, Iranian clerics and officials
voiced their criticism. These statements increased the tension during
the protests.
Afterwards, amid statements of friendship by Iranian officials,
local analysts make clear that they distrust Iranian claims of a
"constructive position" or intentions of "friendship."
Some analysts said that to pander to Iran's demands to restore the
right to wear the hijab would defy Azerbaijan's Islamic heritage.
Tehran continued to say that "not [all] Iranian comments reflect
Tehran's official opinion." It's clear that Tehran sees Azerbaijan's
secular regime, and the greater liberty its population enjoys, as a
threat to the mullahs' regime. A lot of Iranian citizens travel to
Azerbaijan every year, where they are able to enjoy the freedoms they
are denied in Iran.
Iran also appears to be expressing its anger through Sahar TV, an
Iranian network which broadcasts in Azeri. Its programs regularly
contain criticism of Azerbaijani policies. In the meantime, Iranian
TV has announced its own version of "supporting Muslim solidarity,"
emphasizing their long-term goal to "wipe out the Zionists." Sahar
TV is often described as "the spokesman who says everything that the
Iranian government is too afraid to say directly." Even a fleeting
glance at the pro-government Iranian media shows that Azerbaijan is
being insulted and denigrated with worrying regularity. The Azerbaijani
authorities are accused of encouraging separatism, abandoning Islam
and advancing contacts with the West, particularly with the United
States and Israel. Tehran lacks any evidence to support claims of
"insubordinate activities" by Azerbaijan against Iran. This is despite
Azerbaijan's negotiation of the ongoing controversy surrounding
Iran's nuclear program: Baku has been caught in a careful balancing
act in implementing sanctions against Tehran, but it did not sign
the UN Security Council Resolution last June, a measure that imposed
additional sanctions on Iran for failing to demonstrate the peaceful
nature of its nuclear research program.
Aware of the grave consequences, Iran tries to present itself as an
advocate of a religion, which provokes this question in Baku: Why
does the Iranian regime support Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani
territories? Iran's officials and former civil servants frequently
make statements in support of the development of Iranian-Armenian
relations. These statements reflect anxiety about the arms build-up
in the region and the risk that the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict
will result in a new war. There are accusations against Azerbaijan
for developing its military industry. Iran's relations with Armenia
tend to demonstrate that Tehran's priority in the region is to promote
its national interests rather than advance any "religious dogmatism."
Tehran's foreign policy perceives the weakening of Azerbaijan as useful
for Iranian national interests, and therefore it has pursued a policy
of tacit support for Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
This assessment demonstrates how important it is for the international
community to seek to defuse tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan.
There is a serious possibility that the issue between the two countries
will one day feature prominently in the news.
*Dr.Farhad Mehdiyev is a senior faculty member in the international
law department of Qafqaz University. Zaur Shiriyev is a foreign policy
analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Baku, Azerbaijan,
and the executive editor of Caucasus International.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress