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  • BAKU: US Analyst: Both The US And Russia Share Very Similar Views On

    US ANALYST: BOTH THE US AND RUSSIA SHARE VERY SIMILAR VIEWS ON THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

    Today
    Aug 15 2011
    Azerbaijan

    Interview with Alex Jackson, an independent analyst on security,
    political and economic issues in the Caspian region

    Three years have passed since the last war in the South Caucasus and
    many local analysts still question the stability in the region and
    if there is any possibility of destabilization?

    The situation in the South Caucasus remains fragile and uncertain:
    the underlying problems facing the region have not been addressed. The
    situation between Russia and Georgia remains tense, although for
    political reasons neither side is willing to risk a new war. The
    tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan is also a serious issue.

    However, despite the lack of progress on a political settlement, the
    chances of a new war are still very unlikely. So although neither of
    the region's conflict situations are likely to flare up, their root
    causes have not been addressed and they remain a threat to long-term
    stability and peace.

    What are your expectations on the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiation process
    developments?

    The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is very difficult to predict. The
    situation has endured for seventeen years without a return to
    significant fighting, and this is unlikely to occur unless either
    Armenia or Azerbaijan take a political decision to abandon the peace
    process. This is not a likely scenario. However, the lack of progress
    in negotiations is concerning. It seems that both sides are discussing
    very precise details of the peace settlement, which has exposed the
    tension between the concepts of self-determination and territorial
    integrity.

    Patience among mediators is growing thin but neither they, nor Baku
    nor Yerevan, has enough incentive to walk away from the negotiations
    and demand a new negotiating format. For now the status quo remains
    the most likely situation.

    Another thought on agenda after the Georgian war - should the
    South Caucasus countries look for stability and protection in NATO
    integration?

    The Russia-Georgia war showed the limits of NATO's interest in the
    South Caucasus. The Alliance has no interest in granting membership
    to the three states of the region whilst they continue to face a
    number of complex security issues, and whilst their armed forces
    and political systems are not in line with NATO standards. In any
    case the three states have different approaches to NATO: Georgia has
    formally applied for membership, Azerbaijan is equivocal, and Armenia
    has little or no interest in membership.

    However, each country will continue cooperation and integration
    with NATO - as well as building good relationships with important
    Euro-Atlantic nations, co-operation with NATO enables the South
    Caucasian states to improve and modernize their military forces
    and doctrines.

    Is there a way for Russian and the US to cooperate in the South
    Caucasus and preserve the stability in the region?

    Whether or not Russia and the US cooperate in the Caucasus depends
    on two sets of factors. Firstly, strictly regional factors - for
    instance, tension over US support for Georgia before, during and
    after the Russia-Georgia war; or US support for energy pipelines
    leading through the region which avoid Russian territory. At the
    moment there is limited tension over these issues, as the US does
    not view the Caucasus as a priority area.

    The second set of factors is the wider parameters of the relationship
    between Washington and Moscow. During periods when this relationship
    is very tense, it is natural that their interaction in the Caucasus
    is also tense. Although there are fears that the 'reset' between
    them is collapsing, relations between them are still cordial, so
    co-operation continues. For instance, both the US and Russia share
    very similar views on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and work together
    quite closely on it.

    More generally, do you see any major changes in the South Caucasus
    coming?

    It seems unlikely that there will be any major changes in the region
    this year. The most likely changes to occur would be a renewal of the
    Armenia-Turkey thaw: however, despite hopes that Turkey's government
    would pay more attention to the issue after its election victory in
    June, this has not occurred. The Armenian government cannot afford
    to spend political capital on it as election season approaches.

    Indeed, the dialogue between the Armenian government and the
    opposition, and the possibility of early elections, is another key
    trend to watch. Although it seems that the opposition is too weak
    and fractured to challenge the ruling party, Armenian politics is
    very fluid, so this could change quickly.

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