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BAKU: Armenian, Azerbaijani Governments 'Prisoners Of Own Rhetoric'

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  • BAKU: Armenian, Azerbaijani Governments 'Prisoners Of Own Rhetoric'

    ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI GOVERNMENTS 'PRISONERS OF OWN RHETORIC'

    news.az
    Aug 23,2011
    Azerbaijan

    News.Az interviews Jeff Sahadeo, research fellow at the Institute
    for European & Russian Studies at Canada's Carleton University.

    How did the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008 change the situation in
    the South Caucasus and the attitude of the Western community towards
    the region?

    Russia established its military superiority and Georgia now knows it
    cannot count on direct Western support to reclaim Abkhazia and South
    Ossetia. Georgian President Saakashvili continues to consider the
    reincorporation of these regions a priority, but most Georgians now
    have accepted them as lost, and are far more interested in economic
    progress. Anti-Russian attitudes have actually calmed in Georgia as
    they are seen as a potential economic partner, but these have not
    penetrated the higher administration. In terms of the attitude in the
    West, Georgia is viewed with some suspicion by the Obama administration
    and its efforts to join NATO now have receded significantly, especially
    as European nations need Russian energy and with the reports that
    Georgia played a significant role in initiating the 2008 conflict.

    How would you estimate the current situation in the South Caucasus?

    How real is the threat of a new war here?

    The Nagorno-Karakbakh situation is increasingly tense, as both Armenia
    and Azerbaijan (especially Azerbaijan) increase military budgets and
    have made no meaningful moves to compromise. Indeed, both governments
    make quite bellicose public statements to increase their popularity,
    exploiting nationalist tendencies. Continued violent incidents
    around the region make it possible that this could turn again into a
    larger conflict. Armenia's continued difficult economic situation as
    Azerbaijan becomes wealthier adds another element of unpredictability.

    Have relations between Russia and the West normalized since the
    Russo-Georgian war?

    I think relations did normalize with the Obama "reset" policy and with
    the international reports that pinned a significant portion of the
    blame for starting the war on Georgia. Russia's geopolitical position
    and energy reserves make it an important global player and the US
    would rather keep them close when dealing with more immediate threats
    like Iran and North Korea and perhaps even China in the longer run.

    Given that, the Russians are wary of becoming too close to the US,
    especially as there remains some post Cold War distrust, stoked by
    the authoritarian tendencies of the Putin/Medvedev tandem.

    Is it good for Azerbaijan and the Karabakh settlement to keep good
    relations with Russia to prevent a new Russian military invasion in
    the region?

    Certainly the Georgian conflict proved that Russia is the one country
    that would intervene militarily in the region and therefore it would
    be important for Azerbaijan to do everything possible to keep good
    relations, so that if there is a conflict Russia would stay neutral
    and not assist Armenia directly or indirectly.

    Do you expect progress from the Russian mediation on a Karabakh
    settlement?

    No, I do not expect much progress for the reasons stated above -
    that both governments have presented uncompromising positions to
    their own public and pledged to win whatever settlement comes about
    -- so that precludes any give and take that would expose them to
    potentially significant nationalist opposition. So the governments
    have become prisoners of their own bellicose rhetoric, even if they
    wanted to make compromises.

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