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RUSSIA'S STANCE AGAINST SELLING IRAN S-300 DEFENSE SYSTEMS
AZG
26-08-2011
Iran announced Aug. 24 that it has filed a suit in the International
Court of Justice to force Russia to sell it the S-300 strategic
air defense system, per a 2007 contract between the two. Moscow has
refused to sell Iran the system, citing U.N. sanctions against Tehran,
though it has other political reasons for withholding sale of the
system. Russia could change its mind about the sale, depending on
negotiations with the West, and Iran's ability to acquire the S-300s
from Russia cannot be ruled out, Stratfor Global Intelligence reported.
Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Mahmoud Sajadi, told Russian news agencies
that Iran does not believe the air defense systems fall under the
U.N. sanctions and expects the court to authorize the delivery of
the S-300s.
Russia has withheld delivery of the S-300 to Iran for political
reasons. In addition to the U.N. sanctions, Moscow's potential sale
of the license to manufacture the systems to China gives it even
more reason not to sell to Tehran. However, depending on changes in
the political climate, Russia could decide to sell surplus S-300s to
Iran through a third-party country.
The S-300 is considered one of the world's premier air defense systems
(ranking close to the U.S. Patriot missile system). Russia has sold
S-300s to most of the former Soviet states and to other countries
including China and North Korea. Some states that are unfriendly to
the West - Iran, Venezuela and others - have long wanted to acquire
the missile system. However, Russia has never completed delivery of
the S-300 to Iran, despite the agreement between the countries.
The promise of the sale of the S-300 system to Iran has served as
leverage for Moscow in its negotiations with the United States, and
Moscow does not want to lose that leverage. Furthermore, actually
delivering the missile systems to Iran would cause a major break in
relations between Russia and the West at a time when Russia is looking
to the West for assistance in modernizing several of its strategic
economic sectors, increasing cooperation with the United States and
strengthening its relationships with Western European powers.
Moscow now has another reason not to send Iran S-300s: Russia will
stop producing the system this year, according to STRATFOR sources.
Russia has been replacing its S-300s with the next-generation S-400s
for the past few years. Russia reportedly is ahead of schedule on
completing the S-500 missile system, which will be ready for serial
production by the end of 2012. There is simply no need for Russia
to continue producing the S-300. Also, STRATFOR sources have said,
Russia has been negotiating with China for several weeks to sell the
license for producing S-300s exclusively to the Chinese.
Russia will still have some S-300s to sell - those already produced
and those that Moscow is replacing with S-400s. This means that if
Russia should change its mind about selling the systems to Iran - and
it could shift its stance as needed, based on how negotiations with
the West progress - it will have a supply to draw from. If Moscow does
make such a shift, it could sell the S-300s to Iran via a third party.
Russia is planning to replace S-300s with S-400s in its allied
neighboring countries, like Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan - countries
Russia has commonly used as a cover to sell politically sensitive
military supplies. Any Iranian officials' visits to such countries
could indicate whet her Russia is in fact delivering the S-300s to
Iran, as Tehran's ability to acquire the system cannot be ruled out.
AZG
26-08-2011
Iran announced Aug. 24 that it has filed a suit in the International
Court of Justice to force Russia to sell it the S-300 strategic
air defense system, per a 2007 contract between the two. Moscow has
refused to sell Iran the system, citing U.N. sanctions against Tehran,
though it has other political reasons for withholding sale of the
system. Russia could change its mind about the sale, depending on
negotiations with the West, and Iran's ability to acquire the S-300s
from Russia cannot be ruled out, Stratfor Global Intelligence reported.
Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Mahmoud Sajadi, told Russian news agencies
that Iran does not believe the air defense systems fall under the
U.N. sanctions and expects the court to authorize the delivery of
the S-300s.
Russia has withheld delivery of the S-300 to Iran for political
reasons. In addition to the U.N. sanctions, Moscow's potential sale
of the license to manufacture the systems to China gives it even
more reason not to sell to Tehran. However, depending on changes in
the political climate, Russia could decide to sell surplus S-300s to
Iran through a third-party country.
The S-300 is considered one of the world's premier air defense systems
(ranking close to the U.S. Patriot missile system). Russia has sold
S-300s to most of the former Soviet states and to other countries
including China and North Korea. Some states that are unfriendly to
the West - Iran, Venezuela and others - have long wanted to acquire
the missile system. However, Russia has never completed delivery of
the S-300 to Iran, despite the agreement between the countries.
The promise of the sale of the S-300 system to Iran has served as
leverage for Moscow in its negotiations with the United States, and
Moscow does not want to lose that leverage. Furthermore, actually
delivering the missile systems to Iran would cause a major break in
relations between Russia and the West at a time when Russia is looking
to the West for assistance in modernizing several of its strategic
economic sectors, increasing cooperation with the United States and
strengthening its relationships with Western European powers.
Moscow now has another reason not to send Iran S-300s: Russia will
stop producing the system this year, according to STRATFOR sources.
Russia has been replacing its S-300s with the next-generation S-400s
for the past few years. Russia reportedly is ahead of schedule on
completing the S-500 missile system, which will be ready for serial
production by the end of 2012. There is simply no need for Russia
to continue producing the S-300. Also, STRATFOR sources have said,
Russia has been negotiating with China for several weeks to sell the
license for producing S-300s exclusively to the Chinese.
Russia will still have some S-300s to sell - those already produced
and those that Moscow is replacing with S-400s. This means that if
Russia should change its mind about selling the systems to Iran - and
it could shift its stance as needed, based on how negotiations with
the West progress - it will have a supply to draw from. If Moscow does
make such a shift, it could sell the S-300s to Iran via a third party.
Russia is planning to replace S-300s with S-400s in its allied
neighboring countries, like Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan - countries
Russia has commonly used as a cover to sell politically sensitive
military supplies. Any Iranian officials' visits to such countries
could indicate whet her Russia is in fact delivering the S-300s to
Iran, as Tehran's ability to acquire the system cannot be ruled out.