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news.az, Azerbaijan
Aug 26 2011
No military solution to Karabakh problem
Fri 26 August 2011 12:58 GMT | 8:58 Local Time
News.Az interviews Nikolay Silayev, senior researcher at the Moscow
State Institute of International Relations' Caucasus Research Centre.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are celebrating the anniverary of their
independence from Georgia. How did the August 2008 Russo-Georgian war
change the overall situation in the South Caucasus?
The consequences of the war are very diverse, so it is hard to depict
them in a short interview. First and foremost, the war demonstrated
the real and very expensive cost of attempts to solve long-standing
ethnic and political conflicts by force. Russia's recognition of the
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was an indirect outcome of
the war which served as a precedent for the entire post-Soviet area.
Relations between Russia, the US and NATO acquired a new context
following the war.
Do you believe the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
recognized by Russia, is irreversible or does Tbilisi still have a
chance of recovering control over these territories?
Of course, `never say never', but true independence is irreversible.
It is possible that in the distant future some integrated structures
may be formed linking Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The
voluntary concession on their part of sovereignty in favour of Georgia
is theoretically possible in the future. But now discussion of these
issues is far from practical politics. I would not consider the return
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Tbilisi's jurisdiction a realistic
scenario.
Some new agreements on their status are possible only if a brand new
security system is formed throughout the region and fundamental
political advances in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are made.
Russia says it is ready to normalize ties with Georgia only after
President Mikheil Saakashvili leaves office. Can Russia eliminate the
distrust and even antagonism that the Georgian people have towards it?
I have not noticed any antagonism of the Georgian people towards
Russia and the Russian people, or antagonism of the Russian people
towards Georgia and the Georgian people.
Mutually hostile government propaganda in both countries at one time
produced an effect, but this effect was the result of the situation.
The anti-Georgian wave in Russia in the fall of 2006 quickly came to
naught. And the people of Georgia turned out to be immune to
Russophobic propaganda. Mistrust can be eliminated if you prove good
faith and keep promises.
What message did the Russo-Georgian war send to Azerbaijan and Armenia
which do not rule out the possibility of a military solution to their
territorial dispute?
The war showed that there is no military solution and there will not be one.
Is it possible to predict what steps Russia will take if Azerbaijan
does decide to liberate its lands by force?
Russia will make every effort to prevent an outbreak of hostilities,
escalation of violence as an intermediary and to return the parties to
the negotiating table together with other responsible parties in
international politics.
F.H.
News.Az
Aug 26 2011
No military solution to Karabakh problem
Fri 26 August 2011 12:58 GMT | 8:58 Local Time
News.Az interviews Nikolay Silayev, senior researcher at the Moscow
State Institute of International Relations' Caucasus Research Centre.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are celebrating the anniverary of their
independence from Georgia. How did the August 2008 Russo-Georgian war
change the overall situation in the South Caucasus?
The consequences of the war are very diverse, so it is hard to depict
them in a short interview. First and foremost, the war demonstrated
the real and very expensive cost of attempts to solve long-standing
ethnic and political conflicts by force. Russia's recognition of the
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was an indirect outcome of
the war which served as a precedent for the entire post-Soviet area.
Relations between Russia, the US and NATO acquired a new context
following the war.
Do you believe the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
recognized by Russia, is irreversible or does Tbilisi still have a
chance of recovering control over these territories?
Of course, `never say never', but true independence is irreversible.
It is possible that in the distant future some integrated structures
may be formed linking Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The
voluntary concession on their part of sovereignty in favour of Georgia
is theoretically possible in the future. But now discussion of these
issues is far from practical politics. I would not consider the return
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Tbilisi's jurisdiction a realistic
scenario.
Some new agreements on their status are possible only if a brand new
security system is formed throughout the region and fundamental
political advances in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are made.
Russia says it is ready to normalize ties with Georgia only after
President Mikheil Saakashvili leaves office. Can Russia eliminate the
distrust and even antagonism that the Georgian people have towards it?
I have not noticed any antagonism of the Georgian people towards
Russia and the Russian people, or antagonism of the Russian people
towards Georgia and the Georgian people.
Mutually hostile government propaganda in both countries at one time
produced an effect, but this effect was the result of the situation.
The anti-Georgian wave in Russia in the fall of 2006 quickly came to
naught. And the people of Georgia turned out to be immune to
Russophobic propaganda. Mistrust can be eliminated if you prove good
faith and keep promises.
What message did the Russo-Georgian war send to Azerbaijan and Armenia
which do not rule out the possibility of a military solution to their
territorial dispute?
The war showed that there is no military solution and there will not be one.
Is it possible to predict what steps Russia will take if Azerbaijan
does decide to liberate its lands by force?
Russia will make every effort to prevent an outbreak of hostilities,
escalation of violence as an intermediary and to return the parties to
the negotiating table together with other responsible parties in
international politics.
F.H.
News.Az