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WHAT POSSIBILITIES OPENED?
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24382.html
Published: 15:17:38 - 30/11/2011
In a meeting with the Armenians of Georgia within the frameworks
of the visit to this country, Serzh Sargsyan said that "favorable
situation is currently formed which creates the possibility to solve
issues which will ensure long life to the Armenian communities of
Tbilisi and Javakheti".
With this statement, Serzh Sargsyan, willingly or unwillingly,
acknowledges that the situation has so far been dangerous for the
Armenian communities of Tbilisi and Javakheti. He actually admits
as soon as the issues are solved, the existence of the Armenian
communities will no longer be threatened.
What situation Serzh Sargsyan means dwelling on opportunities. Is the
point only about changes happening in the Armenian-Georgian relations,
or it is connected with regional or even global changes?
No doubt, though the Javakheti issue has never been in focus of the
international agenda, nevertheless, it has always had certain regional
importance and has always been considered in the regional political
programs. It couldn't be otherwise considering the particularity of
Javakheti in terms of the geographical position, ethnic-political
sense.
On what plain the changes happened, which, according to Serzh
Sargsyan, give the possibility to solve the issue of the survival
of the Armenian communities. Which "instance" made this decision,
or maybe, Saakashvili and Sargsyan decided together or international
political centers interested in the South Caucasus region did.
Say, have the possibilities, about which Sargsyan talks, appeared in
the result of the weakening of the Russian influence in the South
Caucasus, in particular in Armenia? It is no secret how strong the
Russian influence on the Armenians of Georgia, including Javakheti.
Consequently, these communities of Georgia are like a hostage of the
Georgian-Russian relations.
In this context, the non-evident but tangible trends of decrease of
Russia's influence in the Caucasus can open new possibilities to a
new quality relationship between the official Tbilisi and Armenians
of Georgia.
On the other hand, a new possibility can be created if the
Russian-Georgian relations are changed. In this sense, there are some
trends which were expressed in the process of Russia's membership to
the World Trade Organization, when Russians and Georgians came to terms
with each other. In the result, Georgians removed the veto on Russia.
Though on the other hand, this aspect belonged to the Russia-West
relationship, and here, Georgia did what the West said to do.
Anyway, the situation is undergoing a global change otherwise the
Armenian authorities would hardly have the courage to state openly
about the issues threatening the long life of the Armenians of Georgia,
and voicing about current possibilities to solve them. In general,
the Armenian authorities have recently become very courageous in their
statements on regional developments. This trend coincided with Serzh
Sargsyan's visits to the U.S., France and then Poland, and the visit
of the French President to Armenia.
Armenia mainly dwelt on the necessity to diversify regional energy
programs, expressing willingness to Europe to accept them in Armenia.
In this context, the statements on new possibilities in the Armenian
and Georgian relations are covered with another light.
Though, we should not rule out that it is just a statement the author
of which has not paid much attention to the formulations but only
thought about the impression to be left on the audience at that moment.
Nevertheless it is evident that Javakheti is a serious strategic region
for Georgia against the Turkish expansion. After all, Georgia needs
to realize the importance of the Armenian population of Javakheti for
its own interests. And it is possible that this realization of the
Georgian leadership is under formation which Serzh Sargsyan meant
when dwelling on the current possibilities. In the end, Georgia,
without the Armenian population of Javakheti is unable to resist to
the Turkish-Azerbaijani economic and political expansion which will be
inevitable for this country and will create long-term issues for the
statehood of Georgia after short-term effects of transition dollars.
It will be much easier to agree with Armenia than with Turkey or
Azerbaijan. Besides, the possible Turkish-Azerbaijani expansion will
become a headache for the West too, and even for Russia. In this
sense, after the experience of long years, it becomes clear to both
the West and Russia, that the expansion issue can't be solved but only
through the solution of the issue of Armenians of Javakheti, and it
is better to ensure long life to the Armenian "buffer" in Javakheti,
rather than the Turkish-Azerbaijani fusion.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24382.html
Published: 15:17:38 - 30/11/2011
In a meeting with the Armenians of Georgia within the frameworks
of the visit to this country, Serzh Sargsyan said that "favorable
situation is currently formed which creates the possibility to solve
issues which will ensure long life to the Armenian communities of
Tbilisi and Javakheti".
With this statement, Serzh Sargsyan, willingly or unwillingly,
acknowledges that the situation has so far been dangerous for the
Armenian communities of Tbilisi and Javakheti. He actually admits
as soon as the issues are solved, the existence of the Armenian
communities will no longer be threatened.
What situation Serzh Sargsyan means dwelling on opportunities. Is the
point only about changes happening in the Armenian-Georgian relations,
or it is connected with regional or even global changes?
No doubt, though the Javakheti issue has never been in focus of the
international agenda, nevertheless, it has always had certain regional
importance and has always been considered in the regional political
programs. It couldn't be otherwise considering the particularity of
Javakheti in terms of the geographical position, ethnic-political
sense.
On what plain the changes happened, which, according to Serzh
Sargsyan, give the possibility to solve the issue of the survival
of the Armenian communities. Which "instance" made this decision,
or maybe, Saakashvili and Sargsyan decided together or international
political centers interested in the South Caucasus region did.
Say, have the possibilities, about which Sargsyan talks, appeared in
the result of the weakening of the Russian influence in the South
Caucasus, in particular in Armenia? It is no secret how strong the
Russian influence on the Armenians of Georgia, including Javakheti.
Consequently, these communities of Georgia are like a hostage of the
Georgian-Russian relations.
In this context, the non-evident but tangible trends of decrease of
Russia's influence in the Caucasus can open new possibilities to a
new quality relationship between the official Tbilisi and Armenians
of Georgia.
On the other hand, a new possibility can be created if the
Russian-Georgian relations are changed. In this sense, there are some
trends which were expressed in the process of Russia's membership to
the World Trade Organization, when Russians and Georgians came to terms
with each other. In the result, Georgians removed the veto on Russia.
Though on the other hand, this aspect belonged to the Russia-West
relationship, and here, Georgia did what the West said to do.
Anyway, the situation is undergoing a global change otherwise the
Armenian authorities would hardly have the courage to state openly
about the issues threatening the long life of the Armenians of Georgia,
and voicing about current possibilities to solve them. In general,
the Armenian authorities have recently become very courageous in their
statements on regional developments. This trend coincided with Serzh
Sargsyan's visits to the U.S., France and then Poland, and the visit
of the French President to Armenia.
Armenia mainly dwelt on the necessity to diversify regional energy
programs, expressing willingness to Europe to accept them in Armenia.
In this context, the statements on new possibilities in the Armenian
and Georgian relations are covered with another light.
Though, we should not rule out that it is just a statement the author
of which has not paid much attention to the formulations but only
thought about the impression to be left on the audience at that moment.
Nevertheless it is evident that Javakheti is a serious strategic region
for Georgia against the Turkish expansion. After all, Georgia needs
to realize the importance of the Armenian population of Javakheti for
its own interests. And it is possible that this realization of the
Georgian leadership is under formation which Serzh Sargsyan meant
when dwelling on the current possibilities. In the end, Georgia,
without the Armenian population of Javakheti is unable to resist to
the Turkish-Azerbaijani economic and political expansion which will be
inevitable for this country and will create long-term issues for the
statehood of Georgia after short-term effects of transition dollars.
It will be much easier to agree with Armenia than with Turkey or
Azerbaijan. Besides, the possible Turkish-Azerbaijani expansion will
become a headache for the West too, and even for Russia. In this
sense, after the experience of long years, it becomes clear to both
the West and Russia, that the expansion issue can't be solved but only
through the solution of the issue of Armenians of Javakheti, and it
is better to ensure long life to the Armenian "buffer" in Javakheti,
rather than the Turkish-Azerbaijani fusion.