Tweet
IF KOCHARYAN AND BHP AGREE
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24454.html
Published: 10:48:45 - 06/12/2011
Presenting his offer of cooperation to the Bargavach Hayastan Party as
"political analyses", the Congress Leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan naturally
tried to avoid public refusal by the BHP.
But Gagik Tsarukyan does not seem to be in a hurry to refuse the
proposal. The BHP leader has returned from Dubai where he celebrated
his birthday but has not said anything regarding the prospect of
cooperation with the Congress yet.
Is Tsarukyan considering the possibility of cooperation? As long as he
is silent, we have reason to suggest that he is. It is possible that
Tsarukyan is trying to understand the message of the arrest of the
head of BHP Jermuk regional branch who was charged with keeping drugs
and the shooting around Member of Parliament Rustam Gasparyan's house.
Member of Parliament Naira Zohrabyan, BHP, mentioned "witch hunt" in
commenting on these events. Tsarukyan will try to clarify. If these
incidents were not "poaching", only the beginning of the "hunting
season", he may contact the Congress.
Such a prospect would be undesirable for Serzh Sargsyan indeed. This
may be even risky for Tsarukyan because now Sargsyan seems to be
stronger than ever. But if the BHP leader finds out that a clear
campaign is launched against him, and he will be annihilated, he will
go on to cooperate with the Congress despite all the risks.
In this sense, the BHP leader is likely to consider the Congress as
a tool to settle his accounts with Serzh Sargsyan. For this purpose
he needs to rid of Kocharyan and March 1 publicly, as Ter-Petrosyan
demanded. But Kocharyan can also rid of the BHP for the sake of the
BHP-Congress bloc against Serzh Sargsyan.
So, in reality, by denying each other Kocharyan and BHP can keep
together, waiting for the Congress, along with BHP, to solve Serzh
Sargsyan's issue, and expecting that later Kocharyan and BHP will
solve the Congress issue and take all the power alone.
Certainly, Ter-Petrosyan has the opposite expectation. By separating
the BHP from Kocharyan he can resolve Serzh Sargsyan's issue, then the
BHP issue, and take power. But for Ter-Petrosyan, power is perhaps
not the first and foremost issue at the moment because the Congress
leader must be aware of the possibility that the BHP-Kocharyan public
separation could be just a shaded deal. This is as dangerous for
Sargsyan as for Ter-Petrosyan.
Ter-Petrosyan tries to stir up the political environment with more
possible scenarios and variety of interests, attempting to resolve
the most important issue - no marginalization, at least until the
parliamentary elections.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24454.html
Published: 10:48:45 - 06/12/2011
Presenting his offer of cooperation to the Bargavach Hayastan Party as
"political analyses", the Congress Leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan naturally
tried to avoid public refusal by the BHP.
But Gagik Tsarukyan does not seem to be in a hurry to refuse the
proposal. The BHP leader has returned from Dubai where he celebrated
his birthday but has not said anything regarding the prospect of
cooperation with the Congress yet.
Is Tsarukyan considering the possibility of cooperation? As long as he
is silent, we have reason to suggest that he is. It is possible that
Tsarukyan is trying to understand the message of the arrest of the
head of BHP Jermuk regional branch who was charged with keeping drugs
and the shooting around Member of Parliament Rustam Gasparyan's house.
Member of Parliament Naira Zohrabyan, BHP, mentioned "witch hunt" in
commenting on these events. Tsarukyan will try to clarify. If these
incidents were not "poaching", only the beginning of the "hunting
season", he may contact the Congress.
Such a prospect would be undesirable for Serzh Sargsyan indeed. This
may be even risky for Tsarukyan because now Sargsyan seems to be
stronger than ever. But if the BHP leader finds out that a clear
campaign is launched against him, and he will be annihilated, he will
go on to cooperate with the Congress despite all the risks.
In this sense, the BHP leader is likely to consider the Congress as
a tool to settle his accounts with Serzh Sargsyan. For this purpose
he needs to rid of Kocharyan and March 1 publicly, as Ter-Petrosyan
demanded. But Kocharyan can also rid of the BHP for the sake of the
BHP-Congress bloc against Serzh Sargsyan.
So, in reality, by denying each other Kocharyan and BHP can keep
together, waiting for the Congress, along with BHP, to solve Serzh
Sargsyan's issue, and expecting that later Kocharyan and BHP will
solve the Congress issue and take all the power alone.
Certainly, Ter-Petrosyan has the opposite expectation. By separating
the BHP from Kocharyan he can resolve Serzh Sargsyan's issue, then the
BHP issue, and take power. But for Ter-Petrosyan, power is perhaps
not the first and foremost issue at the moment because the Congress
leader must be aware of the possibility that the BHP-Kocharyan public
separation could be just a shaded deal. This is as dangerous for
Sargsyan as for Ter-Petrosyan.
Ter-Petrosyan tries to stir up the political environment with more
possible scenarios and variety of interests, attempting to resolve
the most important issue - no marginalization, at least until the
parliamentary elections.