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RUSSIAN POLITICAL STRATEGISTS IN ARMENIA
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24458.html
Published: 13:07:24 - 06/12/2011
The world press is actively discussing post-election campaign in
Russia trying to analyze the consequences of the elections and
understand whether they will bring about revolution or elimination
of the acting regime.
The events in Russia are perhaps more closely followed in Armenia,
especially by the authorities. After all, the Russian political
strategists have worked on the mechanisms of reproduction of the
Armenian government, they may still be working in Armenia, and their
"customers" are interested in what the old technologies will produce
in new conditions.
There is still one result - the ruling Yedinaya Rossiya party did
not receive half of all votes even despite all the fraud, losing
vast majority in parliament. This can be a precedent for Armenia -
the Republican Party may also stop being vast majority.
The situation in Russia is not directly projected on Armenia, of course
which has many particularities. But there is the "second" party both
there and here - Spravedilvaya Rossia and Prosperous Armenia.
Both parties have small groups in parliament but they are potential
candidates for a coalition with the ruling party.
The Armenian government might be disturbed by the victory of Communists
in Russia, which stands for that people's desire for social justice and
abolition of the oligarchic ownership. In Armenia, in this context,
the ARF representation in parliament may increase, which is the
carrier of socialist ideas.
But the authorities are interested in post-election developments
rather than elections. The world press had already drawn a parallel
between Russia and Arab states, noting that dictators must be removed,
and Putin had better leave now. Indeed, it is impossible to retain
dictatorship by force. Gaddafi's last minutes, the most odious
dictator, are highly illustrative. Let alone Gaddafi, the wave even
swept away Berlusconi.
In Armenia, they have apparently started thinking on this because
they have decided to replace the stick with the carrot. Instead of
pledges to "strangle the revolution in the cradle", they speak of
new economic strategy, free elections etc. Everything is still on a
declarative level. Without adequate decisions these statements have
no value of political technology.
Another lesson of Russian elections in Armenia is impossibility to
build a campaign on anti-Western rhetoric. Fooling people was not
effective. There is no iron curtain, and people are able to compare
where they would like to live in the West or in Russia, and where
a human feels himself a human. Apparently, this is the reason why
the Armenian authorities were attracted by the West. All the parties
suddenly decided to join the European People's Party.
Further developments in Russia may have a very significant impact
on the election campaign in Armenia. For example, tightening and
strengthening of Putin's position could lead to the fact that parties
supporting Kocharyan in Armenia will feel reassured. For its part,
Putin's "retreat" may lead to complete destruction of these parties.
A precedent for Armenia may also be the attitude of the Russian
authorities to protest actions. These actions are dispersed, activists
are arrested, but if protests increase in scope, "tougher" means may
be used (at the time of Nord-Ost and other terrorist acts, many spoke
of it as a way to relieve tension in the society), or retreat. And
the Armenian authorities will have to consider whether they need to
follow Russia's example.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments24458.html
Published: 13:07:24 - 06/12/2011
The world press is actively discussing post-election campaign in
Russia trying to analyze the consequences of the elections and
understand whether they will bring about revolution or elimination
of the acting regime.
The events in Russia are perhaps more closely followed in Armenia,
especially by the authorities. After all, the Russian political
strategists have worked on the mechanisms of reproduction of the
Armenian government, they may still be working in Armenia, and their
"customers" are interested in what the old technologies will produce
in new conditions.
There is still one result - the ruling Yedinaya Rossiya party did
not receive half of all votes even despite all the fraud, losing
vast majority in parliament. This can be a precedent for Armenia -
the Republican Party may also stop being vast majority.
The situation in Russia is not directly projected on Armenia, of course
which has many particularities. But there is the "second" party both
there and here - Spravedilvaya Rossia and Prosperous Armenia.
Both parties have small groups in parliament but they are potential
candidates for a coalition with the ruling party.
The Armenian government might be disturbed by the victory of Communists
in Russia, which stands for that people's desire for social justice and
abolition of the oligarchic ownership. In Armenia, in this context,
the ARF representation in parliament may increase, which is the
carrier of socialist ideas.
But the authorities are interested in post-election developments
rather than elections. The world press had already drawn a parallel
between Russia and Arab states, noting that dictators must be removed,
and Putin had better leave now. Indeed, it is impossible to retain
dictatorship by force. Gaddafi's last minutes, the most odious
dictator, are highly illustrative. Let alone Gaddafi, the wave even
swept away Berlusconi.
In Armenia, they have apparently started thinking on this because
they have decided to replace the stick with the carrot. Instead of
pledges to "strangle the revolution in the cradle", they speak of
new economic strategy, free elections etc. Everything is still on a
declarative level. Without adequate decisions these statements have
no value of political technology.
Another lesson of Russian elections in Armenia is impossibility to
build a campaign on anti-Western rhetoric. Fooling people was not
effective. There is no iron curtain, and people are able to compare
where they would like to live in the West or in Russia, and where
a human feels himself a human. Apparently, this is the reason why
the Armenian authorities were attracted by the West. All the parties
suddenly decided to join the European People's Party.
Further developments in Russia may have a very significant impact
on the election campaign in Armenia. For example, tightening and
strengthening of Putin's position could lead to the fact that parties
supporting Kocharyan in Armenia will feel reassured. For its part,
Putin's "retreat" may lead to complete destruction of these parties.
A precedent for Armenia may also be the attitude of the Russian
authorities to protest actions. These actions are dispersed, activists
are arrested, but if protests increase in scope, "tougher" means may
be used (at the time of Nord-Ost and other terrorist acts, many spoke
of it as a way to relieve tension in the society), or retreat. And
the Armenian authorities will have to consider whether they need to
follow Russia's example.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress