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TROUBLE IN THE REGION: RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE IN ARMENIA AS FACTOR IN POSSIBLE WAR ON IRAN
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
16.12.11 | 14:20
The United States has stepped up sanctions against Iran amid ongoing
information preparations for the possible application of force against
Iran. Both the Islamic Republic and Russia, which remains a major
player in the region, have warned that a military strike against
Teheran may entail unpredictable consequences.
But Russia has gone further and, in fact, stated that it will take
part in the possible war, because it may affect its vital interests.
Among these 'vitally interests' for Russia may also be its military
base, which is located in Armenia and which also has the functions
of protecting the security of the South Caucasus ally.
The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper published
an article on Thursday quoting sources as saying that the situation
forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of
improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian,
Mediterranean and Black Sea regions." The paper quotes sources at the
military department as saying that the Kremlin has been receiving
information about plans for a U.S.-backed Israeli strike against
Iran's nuclear facilities. "The strike will be a sudden one and will
happen soon, but the data is unspecified. Tehran's response is likely
to be quick, too, with the possibility of a full-scale war, whose
consequences could be unpredictable," the Russian newspaper writes.
"Military base 102 [situated in Gyumri, Armenia] is a key point,
Russia's outpost in the South Caucasus. It occupies a very important
geopolitical position. But the Kremlin fears lest it should lose this
situation," the periodical adds.
Remarkably, the Russian newspaper suggests a new war is possible
between Russia and Georgia. It says that Georgia now blocks the only
land transportation route for Russian military cargoes meant for the
military base in Armenia, and even fuel now has to be obtained from
Iran. "In fact, the Russian-Armenian group in the South Caucasus is
already isolated. The war in Iran would mean the cutting of supplies
through this channel."
Russia has also decided to "strike" Azerbaijan, dropping hints that
it is from its territory that Israel might attack Iran. On Thursday
it was officially stated in Baku that Azerbaijan will not be used
as a springboard for an attack on Iran. But military expert Colonel
Vladimir Popov thinks that in such a situation Azerbaijan may also
solve some of its problems as well.
"If against the background of the war in Iran, Azerbaijan, with the
support of Turkey, attacks Armenia, then, of course, all the attacks of
the enemy aircraft against Armenia will be resisted by Russia together
with air defense units of the armed forces of Armenia. It is hard
to say whether this will be considered as Moscow's participation in
military operations. Undoubtedly, Russian troops will not participate
in hostilities in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. But in the
event of a military threat to Armenia, for example, from Turkey or
Azerbaijan, Russia is likely to engage in ground battles," says Popov.
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow correspondent
16.12.11 | 14:20
The United States has stepped up sanctions against Iran amid ongoing
information preparations for the possible application of force against
Iran. Both the Islamic Republic and Russia, which remains a major
player in the region, have warned that a military strike against
Teheran may entail unpredictable consequences.
But Russia has gone further and, in fact, stated that it will take
part in the possible war, because it may affect its vital interests.
Among these 'vitally interests' for Russia may also be its military
base, which is located in Armenia and which also has the functions
of protecting the security of the South Caucasus ally.
The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper published
an article on Thursday quoting sources as saying that the situation
forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of
improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian,
Mediterranean and Black Sea regions." The paper quotes sources at the
military department as saying that the Kremlin has been receiving
information about plans for a U.S.-backed Israeli strike against
Iran's nuclear facilities. "The strike will be a sudden one and will
happen soon, but the data is unspecified. Tehran's response is likely
to be quick, too, with the possibility of a full-scale war, whose
consequences could be unpredictable," the Russian newspaper writes.
"Military base 102 [situated in Gyumri, Armenia] is a key point,
Russia's outpost in the South Caucasus. It occupies a very important
geopolitical position. But the Kremlin fears lest it should lose this
situation," the periodical adds.
Remarkably, the Russian newspaper suggests a new war is possible
between Russia and Georgia. It says that Georgia now blocks the only
land transportation route for Russian military cargoes meant for the
military base in Armenia, and even fuel now has to be obtained from
Iran. "In fact, the Russian-Armenian group in the South Caucasus is
already isolated. The war in Iran would mean the cutting of supplies
through this channel."
Russia has also decided to "strike" Azerbaijan, dropping hints that
it is from its territory that Israel might attack Iran. On Thursday
it was officially stated in Baku that Azerbaijan will not be used
as a springboard for an attack on Iran. But military expert Colonel
Vladimir Popov thinks that in such a situation Azerbaijan may also
solve some of its problems as well.
"If against the background of the war in Iran, Azerbaijan, with the
support of Turkey, attacks Armenia, then, of course, all the attacks of
the enemy aircraft against Armenia will be resisted by Russia together
with air defense units of the armed forces of Armenia. It is hard
to say whether this will be considered as Moscow's participation in
military operations. Undoubtedly, Russian troops will not participate
in hostilities in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. But in the
event of a military threat to Armenia, for example, from Turkey or
Azerbaijan, Russia is likely to engage in ground battles," says Popov.