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Tbilisi Rezonansi, Georgia
Dec 15 2011
Latest Threat from Russia
by Tiko Osmanova
"It is highly probable that Russia will begin a military conflict with
Georgia. There are, however, a number of ways in which events can
develop. Any adventurous undertakings by Russia in the Caucasus can
cause uncontrollable processes, therefore it is much more advantageous
for Russia to create the image of an enemy out of Georgia once again,"
military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze stated in an interview with
Rezonansi.
The Russian authorities voiced yet another accusation yesterday.
Russian Security Council Chairman Nikolay Patrushev stated that
persons are being trained on Georgian territory to carry out terrorist
acts in Russia.
According to him, drawing a parallel between the current Georgian
authorities and the Georgian people is impossible.
"[Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili pursues a policy that is far
from the interests of the Georgian people. Increasingly more Georgian
military go to other countries to participate in military campaigns.
Persons are being trained on Georgian territory to carry out terrorist
acts in Russia. Genuinely negative processes are ongoing in the
country's economy. External debt and inflation [rates] are
increasing," Patrushev stated.
Rezonansi spoke with military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze regarding what
this accusation from Russia means, and what threats should Georgia
expect this time.
[Tavdgiridze] We all know well Russia's political idiosyncrasies.
There is nothing new in this. As soon as there are political problems,
Russia starts emphasizing internal or external enemies.
Any adventurous undertakings by Russia in the Caucasus can cause
uncontrollable processes. Therefore, it is much more advantageous for
Russia to create the image of an enemy out of Georgia once again and
to divert public attention to Georgia. The main goal of Russian policy
is to maintain its influence in the Caucasus, particularly over
Georgia.
[Osmanova] To what extent will the tense situation that exists in
Russia increase the risk of a renewed Georgian-Russian conflict?
[Tavdgiridze] Naturally, it is highly probable that Russia will begin
a military conflict with Georgia. There are, however, a number of ways
in which events can develop. The ongoing processes in Russia can
trigger a chain reaction. If [Russian Premier Vladimir] Putin's and
[Russian President Dmitriy] Medvedev's [grasp on] power is weakened,
they will lose control over certain processes. A liberation movement
will definitely begin in North Caucasus and will presumably be
financed with Arab money. This will be a quite powerful event in
military terms and this will cause tension, which will be reflected on
Georgian-Russian relations.
At the same time, Azerbaijan might begin a military conflict to
recover Nagornyy Karabakh. Consequently, complex processes are to be
expected. The possibility of these processes leading to a war
involving the entire Caucasus cannot be excluded; however, this is
also not very likely. At this point it is important to ascertain how
events will develop in Russia.
[Osmanova] And in your opinion, how will events develop in Russia?
[Tavdgiridze] The main problem is that a great protest dynamic has
appeared in Russia. These demonstrations have shown that Putin's
influence is waning.
[Osmanova] So you think that the Arab Spring is approaching Russia?
[Tavdgiridze] It is too early to talk about this, let us await events
and see if the opposition manages to make these demonstrations
large-scale and long lasting.
While these tense processes are ongoing, there are more threats as
well. Putin will attempt to maintain his [grasp on] power by revealing
an external threat, which is the Georgian threat. Thus, both scenarios
are dangerous for us. As for whether they [Russians] will be able to
get rid of Putin or not, the chances for this so far are 50-50.
[Osmanova] As you say, threats emanating from Russia increase by the
day. What should the Georgian Government do in this case in order to
avoid these processes?
[Tavdgiridze] First of all, the Georgian public should consider one
thing: Russia will not be our partner for decades to come, therefore
we should be ready for confrontations. If the degree of confrontation
increases, the public must entirely be focused on repelling the
threat, rather than discussing who began the war and who is at fault.
[Osmanova] Is confronting Russia with our defence system not unrealistic?
[Tavdgiridze] Why is there no chance and why is it unrealistic? I am
knowledgeable in military theory and this knowledge allows me to say
that Georgia has the potential to create such a shield that will make
it very difficult for Russia to oppress Georgia. The public for some
reason says that we have no chance against Russia. However, what this
[judgment] is based on - is it an empirical assessment or a judgment
merely based on a territorial standpoint - is unclear.
[Osmanova] The public remembers the [Georgian-Russian] war of August
2008, which we lost in a day and a half.
[Tavdgiridze] If we want to preserve our independence, we will have to
fight. We have no other chance. We have the potential to repel Russian
aggression, the rest are just empirical assessments [as published].
[Osmanova] With what should we succeed in repelling Russia? Will that
not be impossible in terms of military hardware?
[Tavdgiridze] We have the potential to conduct operations in a way
that will make it very difficult for Russia to oppress us.
Prolonged military campaigns will cost Russia dear. A short war will
be successful for it. We may recall the Chechnya war as an example.
[translated from Georgian]
Dec 15 2011
Latest Threat from Russia
by Tiko Osmanova
"It is highly probable that Russia will begin a military conflict with
Georgia. There are, however, a number of ways in which events can
develop. Any adventurous undertakings by Russia in the Caucasus can
cause uncontrollable processes, therefore it is much more advantageous
for Russia to create the image of an enemy out of Georgia once again,"
military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze stated in an interview with
Rezonansi.
The Russian authorities voiced yet another accusation yesterday.
Russian Security Council Chairman Nikolay Patrushev stated that
persons are being trained on Georgian territory to carry out terrorist
acts in Russia.
According to him, drawing a parallel between the current Georgian
authorities and the Georgian people is impossible.
"[Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili pursues a policy that is far
from the interests of the Georgian people. Increasingly more Georgian
military go to other countries to participate in military campaigns.
Persons are being trained on Georgian territory to carry out terrorist
acts in Russia. Genuinely negative processes are ongoing in the
country's economy. External debt and inflation [rates] are
increasing," Patrushev stated.
Rezonansi spoke with military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze regarding what
this accusation from Russia means, and what threats should Georgia
expect this time.
[Tavdgiridze] We all know well Russia's political idiosyncrasies.
There is nothing new in this. As soon as there are political problems,
Russia starts emphasizing internal or external enemies.
Any adventurous undertakings by Russia in the Caucasus can cause
uncontrollable processes. Therefore, it is much more advantageous for
Russia to create the image of an enemy out of Georgia once again and
to divert public attention to Georgia. The main goal of Russian policy
is to maintain its influence in the Caucasus, particularly over
Georgia.
[Osmanova] To what extent will the tense situation that exists in
Russia increase the risk of a renewed Georgian-Russian conflict?
[Tavdgiridze] Naturally, it is highly probable that Russia will begin
a military conflict with Georgia. There are, however, a number of ways
in which events can develop. The ongoing processes in Russia can
trigger a chain reaction. If [Russian Premier Vladimir] Putin's and
[Russian President Dmitriy] Medvedev's [grasp on] power is weakened,
they will lose control over certain processes. A liberation movement
will definitely begin in North Caucasus and will presumably be
financed with Arab money. This will be a quite powerful event in
military terms and this will cause tension, which will be reflected on
Georgian-Russian relations.
At the same time, Azerbaijan might begin a military conflict to
recover Nagornyy Karabakh. Consequently, complex processes are to be
expected. The possibility of these processes leading to a war
involving the entire Caucasus cannot be excluded; however, this is
also not very likely. At this point it is important to ascertain how
events will develop in Russia.
[Osmanova] And in your opinion, how will events develop in Russia?
[Tavdgiridze] The main problem is that a great protest dynamic has
appeared in Russia. These demonstrations have shown that Putin's
influence is waning.
[Osmanova] So you think that the Arab Spring is approaching Russia?
[Tavdgiridze] It is too early to talk about this, let us await events
and see if the opposition manages to make these demonstrations
large-scale and long lasting.
While these tense processes are ongoing, there are more threats as
well. Putin will attempt to maintain his [grasp on] power by revealing
an external threat, which is the Georgian threat. Thus, both scenarios
are dangerous for us. As for whether they [Russians] will be able to
get rid of Putin or not, the chances for this so far are 50-50.
[Osmanova] As you say, threats emanating from Russia increase by the
day. What should the Georgian Government do in this case in order to
avoid these processes?
[Tavdgiridze] First of all, the Georgian public should consider one
thing: Russia will not be our partner for decades to come, therefore
we should be ready for confrontations. If the degree of confrontation
increases, the public must entirely be focused on repelling the
threat, rather than discussing who began the war and who is at fault.
[Osmanova] Is confronting Russia with our defence system not unrealistic?
[Tavdgiridze] Why is there no chance and why is it unrealistic? I am
knowledgeable in military theory and this knowledge allows me to say
that Georgia has the potential to create such a shield that will make
it very difficult for Russia to oppress Georgia. The public for some
reason says that we have no chance against Russia. However, what this
[judgment] is based on - is it an empirical assessment or a judgment
merely based on a territorial standpoint - is unclear.
[Osmanova] The public remembers the [Georgian-Russian] war of August
2008, which we lost in a day and a half.
[Tavdgiridze] If we want to preserve our independence, we will have to
fight. We have no other chance. We have the potential to repel Russian
aggression, the rest are just empirical assessments [as published].
[Osmanova] With what should we succeed in repelling Russia? Will that
not be impossible in terms of military hardware?
[Tavdgiridze] We have the potential to conduct operations in a way
that will make it very difficult for Russia to oppress us.
Prolonged military campaigns will cost Russia dear. A short war will
be successful for it. We may recall the Chechnya war as an example.
[translated from Georgian]