Tweet
FIONA HILL: IN PRINCIPLE THERE CAN BE A COMPROMISE ON NAGORNY KARABAKH, BUT UNDER CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION THERE REALLY IS NO
Vestnik Kavkaza
Dec 22 2011
Russia
Fiona Hill, an expert on Russia and the states of the former Soviet
Union from Brookings Institution contemplates on ways of Nagorny
Karabakh conflict settlement.
- What is the main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict?
- The main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict is that
the cooperation from both sides, both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and
perhaps especially of Azerbaijan are not ready for compromise.Both
of the leaders have not been able to show the idea of a compromise
to their populations. It is the political situation inside of the
countries that is really blocking any kind of settlement at this stage
so it is better for the both presidents that there is no resolution
at this stage.
- So there is actually no way for a compromise nowadays, yes?
- Not at the current juncture. You know, as Russians say, in principle
there can be a compromise, but under current political situation
there really is not.
- In this context is there a possibility for full-scale hostilities
to be resumed?
- I think it is a real risk of miscalculation, as far as we continue
to see violence, the exchange of fire, sniper cups, regular killings
of soldiers on both sides, there is really a risk of an escalation, a
miscalculation and as a result of this the resumption of violence. It
is helped by the rhetoric, by what the presidents say in the public
contact. So I think most of the experts, most of the people who work
on this issue are very concerned.
- Do experts think that there are any changes in the current political
agenda, in Russian foreign policy because of the new elections and
maybe the new government that can change the situation in Nagorny
Karabakh between the two sides?
- Well, it is possible, I would not say that it is probable and we
have to see what happens in the Russian elections and how the new
government is formed , but the fact the president Dmitry Medvedev
made a good effort, it really seems like a very sincere effort to
find a way of resolution and put a lot of time and energy into this
but as we see he did not succeed because the two presidents were not
ready. It is likely that even the president Putin and the new Russian
government would have the same difficulty. Sargsyan and Aliyev are
not ready and not able, they are not just ready but not able in a
larger sense to try to be able to do this and Russia cannot impose the
settlement from outside, and more generally all other international
actors cannot impose the settlement. It is not demanded. It has been
very clear that it is not going to be possible. Russia wants to see
the settlement and Dmitry Medvedev made an effort, it was a very
promising sign, but he still did not succeed. Most problems have
ground in the region. Just from the international prospective.
- Do you and other experts think that Azerbaijan and Armenia will
face full-scale warfare in the nearest future, I mean nowadays,
not in two years?
- I think it is possible, it is a potential, I am not saying that it
is going to happen for sure, there is a risk of miscalculation. And
the issue of compromise is just about whether the two presidents are
ready to take the steps, it is about the domestic politics in Armenia
and Azerbaijan that it affected by the international environments but
ultimately it is about their politics and their calculation on whether
they can really afford to make a compromise. Does it make sense to you?
- In the case of the attempt to settle the conflict and to stop
the hostility by those two presidents there is a chance to reach a
peaceful conclusion for the conflict?
- There is, but they have to make some tough decisions. I think
everybody knows what the basis for compromise is, but the question is
whether the domestic politics of Armenia and Azerbaijan permits it,
whether Sargsyan and Aliyev personally feel that they have enough
of what Americans call a political capital, whether they have
enough legitimacy and enough political strength to be able reach
that compromise. I think it is all really about the decisions that
Sargsyan and Aliyev have to make personally.
Vestnik Kavkaza
Dec 22 2011
Russia
Fiona Hill, an expert on Russia and the states of the former Soviet
Union from Brookings Institution contemplates on ways of Nagorny
Karabakh conflict settlement.
- What is the main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict?
- The main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict is that
the cooperation from both sides, both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and
perhaps especially of Azerbaijan are not ready for compromise.Both
of the leaders have not been able to show the idea of a compromise
to their populations. It is the political situation inside of the
countries that is really blocking any kind of settlement at this stage
so it is better for the both presidents that there is no resolution
at this stage.
- So there is actually no way for a compromise nowadays, yes?
- Not at the current juncture. You know, as Russians say, in principle
there can be a compromise, but under current political situation
there really is not.
- In this context is there a possibility for full-scale hostilities
to be resumed?
- I think it is a real risk of miscalculation, as far as we continue
to see violence, the exchange of fire, sniper cups, regular killings
of soldiers on both sides, there is really a risk of an escalation, a
miscalculation and as a result of this the resumption of violence. It
is helped by the rhetoric, by what the presidents say in the public
contact. So I think most of the experts, most of the people who work
on this issue are very concerned.
- Do experts think that there are any changes in the current political
agenda, in Russian foreign policy because of the new elections and
maybe the new government that can change the situation in Nagorny
Karabakh between the two sides?
- Well, it is possible, I would not say that it is probable and we
have to see what happens in the Russian elections and how the new
government is formed , but the fact the president Dmitry Medvedev
made a good effort, it really seems like a very sincere effort to
find a way of resolution and put a lot of time and energy into this
but as we see he did not succeed because the two presidents were not
ready. It is likely that even the president Putin and the new Russian
government would have the same difficulty. Sargsyan and Aliyev are
not ready and not able, they are not just ready but not able in a
larger sense to try to be able to do this and Russia cannot impose the
settlement from outside, and more generally all other international
actors cannot impose the settlement. It is not demanded. It has been
very clear that it is not going to be possible. Russia wants to see
the settlement and Dmitry Medvedev made an effort, it was a very
promising sign, but he still did not succeed. Most problems have
ground in the region. Just from the international prospective.
- Do you and other experts think that Azerbaijan and Armenia will
face full-scale warfare in the nearest future, I mean nowadays,
not in two years?
- I think it is possible, it is a potential, I am not saying that it
is going to happen for sure, there is a risk of miscalculation. And
the issue of compromise is just about whether the two presidents are
ready to take the steps, it is about the domestic politics in Armenia
and Azerbaijan that it affected by the international environments but
ultimately it is about their politics and their calculation on whether
they can really afford to make a compromise. Does it make sense to you?
- In the case of the attempt to settle the conflict and to stop
the hostility by those two presidents there is a chance to reach a
peaceful conclusion for the conflict?
- There is, but they have to make some tough decisions. I think
everybody knows what the basis for compromise is, but the question is
whether the domestic politics of Armenia and Azerbaijan permits it,
whether Sargsyan and Aliyev personally feel that they have enough
of what Americans call a political capital, whether they have
enough legitimacy and enough political strength to be able reach
that compromise. I think it is all really about the decisions that
Sargsyan and Aliyev have to make personally.