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TRYING TO UNDERSTAND FRANCE
Today's Zaman
Dec 23 2011
Turkey
It is not our job to lecture France, as this country is already full
of thinkers, politicians and scientists.
Besides, as we are in a country which does not have a brilliant record
on human rights and liberties, it becomes particularly difficult for
us to be convincing when criticizing a country like France. It is
not like we have faced our own history's every aspect bravely.
The French authorities had certainly known that the bill aiming at
criminalizing the denial of the Armenian "genocide" would be met with
Turkey's tough reaction. Perhaps France imagined that these reactions
would have no serious or concrete results after all. Or perhaps the
French government deliberately wanted to derail bilateral relations.
That is why it is important for us to understand what kind of political
and diplomatic outcomes France expected through this legal initiative.
This first option is that France had wanted to turn the ongoing
tension between the two countries into an all-out crisis. Perhaps
they thought that this crisis would hit the Turkish economy hard
and then Turkish and French businessmen would use all their clout to
convince the Turkish government to come around. The business world's
efforts may provide some kind of economic rapprochement without any
political settlement. To say the truth, this is exactly what Nicolas
Sarkozy has in mind for French-Turkish relations. President Sarkozy
opposes Turkey's membership in the EU; he does not want Turks to have
voting power in the union's institutions, but he also wants them
to act together with Europe in the military, security and economic
fields. Of course, he never could explain why Turkey would accept
this without EU accession on the horizon.
The second option is to use the ongoing tension between the two
countries as a threat against Turkey. France is certainly aware that
Turkey will take some steps to protest this law. Turkey will try to
take commercial measures against France, the latter will be excluded
from military procurement bids, and French institutions in Turkey,
such as schools, will be put under pressure. Moreover, Turkey will
probably try to oppose France in multilateral platforms such as NATO
and the European Council. However, if Turkey does act like this,
France will adopt a similar stance against Turkish interests. France
probably believes that in such a fight, Turkey's losses will be much
more significant than those of France.
Such a fight aimed at harming each other means that France's intention
must be to make Turkey accept something. The problem is that it is not
possible to understand for now what, exactly, France wants Turkey to
accept. Perhaps this is all about the European Union after all. France
needs Turkey to renounce becoming a member but still to protect EU
interests in the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Central
Asia. When France says "the EU's interests," it actually means it
needs Turkey to protect primarily French interests in those areas.
Perhaps Turkey has as of late sent signals that it is more inclined
to assist French rivals within the EU and that this is why France
has now decided to compel Turkey to change its mind, by all means.
Let's be honest: Turkey has committed many mistakes in the past
while dealing with the Armenian, Cypriot and Kurdish issues. Instead
of correcting its mistakes, Turkey prefers to respond with anger,
and other countries use these problems as a diplomatic tool. Maybe
Turkey thinks that France is easily replaceable as there are many
other countries that are willing to work with Turkey. You can be sure
that there are indeed several countries that will be pleased to see
a break in French-Turkish relations.
We will all see together the outcome of this crisis, but it seems
that France has decided to push Turkey away without any clear reason
as to why.
From: A. Papazian
Today's Zaman
Dec 23 2011
Turkey
It is not our job to lecture France, as this country is already full
of thinkers, politicians and scientists.
Besides, as we are in a country which does not have a brilliant record
on human rights and liberties, it becomes particularly difficult for
us to be convincing when criticizing a country like France. It is
not like we have faced our own history's every aspect bravely.
The French authorities had certainly known that the bill aiming at
criminalizing the denial of the Armenian "genocide" would be met with
Turkey's tough reaction. Perhaps France imagined that these reactions
would have no serious or concrete results after all. Or perhaps the
French government deliberately wanted to derail bilateral relations.
That is why it is important for us to understand what kind of political
and diplomatic outcomes France expected through this legal initiative.
This first option is that France had wanted to turn the ongoing
tension between the two countries into an all-out crisis. Perhaps
they thought that this crisis would hit the Turkish economy hard
and then Turkish and French businessmen would use all their clout to
convince the Turkish government to come around. The business world's
efforts may provide some kind of economic rapprochement without any
political settlement. To say the truth, this is exactly what Nicolas
Sarkozy has in mind for French-Turkish relations. President Sarkozy
opposes Turkey's membership in the EU; he does not want Turks to have
voting power in the union's institutions, but he also wants them
to act together with Europe in the military, security and economic
fields. Of course, he never could explain why Turkey would accept
this without EU accession on the horizon.
The second option is to use the ongoing tension between the two
countries as a threat against Turkey. France is certainly aware that
Turkey will take some steps to protest this law. Turkey will try to
take commercial measures against France, the latter will be excluded
from military procurement bids, and French institutions in Turkey,
such as schools, will be put under pressure. Moreover, Turkey will
probably try to oppose France in multilateral platforms such as NATO
and the European Council. However, if Turkey does act like this,
France will adopt a similar stance against Turkish interests. France
probably believes that in such a fight, Turkey's losses will be much
more significant than those of France.
Such a fight aimed at harming each other means that France's intention
must be to make Turkey accept something. The problem is that it is not
possible to understand for now what, exactly, France wants Turkey to
accept. Perhaps this is all about the European Union after all. France
needs Turkey to renounce becoming a member but still to protect EU
interests in the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East and Central
Asia. When France says "the EU's interests," it actually means it
needs Turkey to protect primarily French interests in those areas.
Perhaps Turkey has as of late sent signals that it is more inclined
to assist French rivals within the EU and that this is why France
has now decided to compel Turkey to change its mind, by all means.
Let's be honest: Turkey has committed many mistakes in the past
while dealing with the Armenian, Cypriot and Kurdish issues. Instead
of correcting its mistakes, Turkey prefers to respond with anger,
and other countries use these problems as a diplomatic tool. Maybe
Turkey thinks that France is easily replaceable as there are many
other countries that are willing to work with Turkey. You can be sure
that there are indeed several countries that will be pleased to see
a break in French-Turkish relations.
We will all see together the outcome of this crisis, but it seems
that France has decided to push Turkey away without any clear reason
as to why.
From: A. Papazian