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Global Insight
December 23, 2011
French Law Criminalising Genocide Denial Prompts Turkish Retaliation
BY: James Goundry
French legislators in the lower house of parliament passed a law
yesterday (22 December) criminalising the denial of genocide. The vote
prompted an angry backlash from Turkey and increases the risk of
significantly damaged relations between the two countries.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance- French members of the National Assembly, the lower house
of parliament, passed a bill yesterday (22 December) criminalising the
denial of genocides recognised by the state. France recognises the
Nazi genocide during the Second World War and the Armenian genocide of
1915-17.
Implications- The vote prompted an angry response from Turkey, which
denies the genocide claim. Turkey recalled its ambassador from Paris,
suspended military co-operation, and withdrew from a Franco-Turkish
economic committee meeting scheduled for January 2012.
Outlook- The dispute brings relations between Turkey and France to a
new low. Although the vote could improve support for the French
government among the Armenian diaspora in France, it threatens to have
significant negative political and economic consequences for relations
with an important emerging market and diplomatic power in the Middle
East.
Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdo an, seen here ona visit to
Tripoli, does not accept that genocide occurred
French legislators in the National Assembly, the French lower house of
parliament, yesterday (22 December) passed a bill criminalising the
denial of genocides formally recognised by the French state. France
recognises only two genocides, the holocaust of the Second World War
and the Armenian genocide of 1915-17. Given that separate legislation
introduced in 1990 already criminalised denial of the former, this
latest vote effectively targets the Armenian issue. The law was
proposed by members of the ruling centre-right Union for a Popular
Movement (UMP), but received support from across the political
spectrum and was passed with ease. The bill will now be debated and
voted on in the French upper house, the Senate, before returning to
the lower house for final adoption. Given that parliament will be
dissolved in February 2012 ahead of presidential and legislative
elections in April, May, and June, and given lingering question-marks
over the bill's constitutionality, it is far from a certainty that it
will become law.
The proposal to criminalise denial of the Armenian genocide does not
come out of the blue. France initially recognised the deaths of over 1
million Armenians in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire as genocide
in 2001. Bills seeking to criminalise denial of the genocide were
introduced in 2006 and in May 2011, but both were defeated in the then
UMP-dominated Senate.
The Turkish government reacted angrily to the vote. The Turkish
ambassador to France was called back to Ankara, and Turkish prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan suspended political visits and military
co-operation between the two NATO member states. Crowds of ethnic
Turkish protestors gathered outside the French National Assembly for
the vote, and crowds in Ankara were reported to have gathered and
expressed anti-French feelings. Erdogan decried the move as "politics
based on racism, discrimination and xenophobia" and warned of
"irreparable damage" to relations between the two nations. Late
yesterday (22 December), Turkish economy minister Zafer Caglayan
announced that Turkey would withdraw from an economy and trade
committee meeting with France planned for early 2012.
Political Opportunism
The Turkish government, and domestic French political opposition, has
criticised the timing of the bill as a cynical piece of political
opportunism ahead of presidential and legislative elections scheduled
for April, May, and June 2012. France is home to a significant
Armenian minority numbering almost 500,000, and the UMP, and the MPs
proposing the bill, are likely to be aware of the boost such a law
would provide to their poll numbers. Given this, the timing may also
be an attempt by the UMP to steal a march on its Socialist Party (PS)
rivals. PS presidential candidate Francois Hollande suggested at the
end of September that the proposed law might make a reappearance
following a historic victory for the left in Senate elections. Shortly
after this announcement, President Nicolas Sarkozy indicated that he
would consider supporting such a bill in a meeting with the Armenian
president in Yerevan if Turkey did not recognise the events as
genocide. Nonetheless, wider public opinion across France appears to
be more sceptical of the bill, with polls by major newspapers on both
the centre-right and centre-left suggesting majorities against
criminalising genocide denial.
The French vote is a setback for the Turkish government, which had
hoped to contain the issue by launching internationally mediated
normalisation talks with Armenia from 2000 to 2010. Neither party,
however, ratified the protocols that would have seen Turkey lifting a
blockade on its eastern neighbour. At the same time, Turkey hoped that
the contentious issues would be confined to its relations with
Armenia. The strong Turkish reaction was predictable, given the
similar response to recognition of the Armenian genocide by at least
19 other countries, including Canada, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands,
Russia, and Sweden, as well as the European Parliament.
Outlook and Implications
The vote marks a new low for Franco-Turkish relations, already
strained by vocal French objections to Turkish accession to the EU.
However, although undoubtedly damaging for diplomatic relations in the
short term, the longer-term political and economic consequences may
well be less severe. Each French move towards criminalising genocide
denial since 2001 has been met with strong Turkish objections,
including the recall of the Turkish ambassador in 2001 and foreboding
comments of the damage such moves would cause to bilateral relations.
Nonetheless, Franco-Turkish trade has continued to increase, with
trade between the two estimated to be worth EUR12 billion (USD15.6
billion) a year. The two countries have also co-operated on a number
of international diplomatic issues from Afghanistan to Syria and the
Mediterranean. Moreover, the EU and Turkey established a customs union
in 1995, which provides for free trade between them in industrial and
processed agricultural products, and both countries are members of the
WTO. These factors will limit Turkey's scope for economic retaliation,
although French companies may suffer in public procurement tenders.
The current Turkish government may also up the populist rhetoric in an
attempt to placate growing concerns over the curbing of individual
freedoms within Turkey.
December 23, 2011
French Law Criminalising Genocide Denial Prompts Turkish Retaliation
BY: James Goundry
French legislators in the lower house of parliament passed a law
yesterday (22 December) criminalising the denial of genocide. The vote
prompted an angry backlash from Turkey and increases the risk of
significantly damaged relations between the two countries.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance- French members of the National Assembly, the lower house
of parliament, passed a bill yesterday (22 December) criminalising the
denial of genocides recognised by the state. France recognises the
Nazi genocide during the Second World War and the Armenian genocide of
1915-17.
Implications- The vote prompted an angry response from Turkey, which
denies the genocide claim. Turkey recalled its ambassador from Paris,
suspended military co-operation, and withdrew from a Franco-Turkish
economic committee meeting scheduled for January 2012.
Outlook- The dispute brings relations between Turkey and France to a
new low. Although the vote could improve support for the French
government among the Armenian diaspora in France, it threatens to have
significant negative political and economic consequences for relations
with an important emerging market and diplomatic power in the Middle
East.
Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdo an, seen here ona visit to
Tripoli, does not accept that genocide occurred
French legislators in the National Assembly, the French lower house of
parliament, yesterday (22 December) passed a bill criminalising the
denial of genocides formally recognised by the French state. France
recognises only two genocides, the holocaust of the Second World War
and the Armenian genocide of 1915-17. Given that separate legislation
introduced in 1990 already criminalised denial of the former, this
latest vote effectively targets the Armenian issue. The law was
proposed by members of the ruling centre-right Union for a Popular
Movement (UMP), but received support from across the political
spectrum and was passed with ease. The bill will now be debated and
voted on in the French upper house, the Senate, before returning to
the lower house for final adoption. Given that parliament will be
dissolved in February 2012 ahead of presidential and legislative
elections in April, May, and June, and given lingering question-marks
over the bill's constitutionality, it is far from a certainty that it
will become law.
The proposal to criminalise denial of the Armenian genocide does not
come out of the blue. France initially recognised the deaths of over 1
million Armenians in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire as genocide
in 2001. Bills seeking to criminalise denial of the genocide were
introduced in 2006 and in May 2011, but both were defeated in the then
UMP-dominated Senate.
The Turkish government reacted angrily to the vote. The Turkish
ambassador to France was called back to Ankara, and Turkish prime
minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan suspended political visits and military
co-operation between the two NATO member states. Crowds of ethnic
Turkish protestors gathered outside the French National Assembly for
the vote, and crowds in Ankara were reported to have gathered and
expressed anti-French feelings. Erdogan decried the move as "politics
based on racism, discrimination and xenophobia" and warned of
"irreparable damage" to relations between the two nations. Late
yesterday (22 December), Turkish economy minister Zafer Caglayan
announced that Turkey would withdraw from an economy and trade
committee meeting with France planned for early 2012.
Political Opportunism
The Turkish government, and domestic French political opposition, has
criticised the timing of the bill as a cynical piece of political
opportunism ahead of presidential and legislative elections scheduled
for April, May, and June 2012. France is home to a significant
Armenian minority numbering almost 500,000, and the UMP, and the MPs
proposing the bill, are likely to be aware of the boost such a law
would provide to their poll numbers. Given this, the timing may also
be an attempt by the UMP to steal a march on its Socialist Party (PS)
rivals. PS presidential candidate Francois Hollande suggested at the
end of September that the proposed law might make a reappearance
following a historic victory for the left in Senate elections. Shortly
after this announcement, President Nicolas Sarkozy indicated that he
would consider supporting such a bill in a meeting with the Armenian
president in Yerevan if Turkey did not recognise the events as
genocide. Nonetheless, wider public opinion across France appears to
be more sceptical of the bill, with polls by major newspapers on both
the centre-right and centre-left suggesting majorities against
criminalising genocide denial.
The French vote is a setback for the Turkish government, which had
hoped to contain the issue by launching internationally mediated
normalisation talks with Armenia from 2000 to 2010. Neither party,
however, ratified the protocols that would have seen Turkey lifting a
blockade on its eastern neighbour. At the same time, Turkey hoped that
the contentious issues would be confined to its relations with
Armenia. The strong Turkish reaction was predictable, given the
similar response to recognition of the Armenian genocide by at least
19 other countries, including Canada, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands,
Russia, and Sweden, as well as the European Parliament.
Outlook and Implications
The vote marks a new low for Franco-Turkish relations, already
strained by vocal French objections to Turkish accession to the EU.
However, although undoubtedly damaging for diplomatic relations in the
short term, the longer-term political and economic consequences may
well be less severe. Each French move towards criminalising genocide
denial since 2001 has been met with strong Turkish objections,
including the recall of the Turkish ambassador in 2001 and foreboding
comments of the damage such moves would cause to bilateral relations.
Nonetheless, Franco-Turkish trade has continued to increase, with
trade between the two estimated to be worth EUR12 billion (USD15.6
billion) a year. The two countries have also co-operated on a number
of international diplomatic issues from Afghanistan to Syria and the
Mediterranean. Moreover, the EU and Turkey established a customs union
in 1995, which provides for free trade between them in industrial and
processed agricultural products, and both countries are members of the
WTO. These factors will limit Turkey's scope for economic retaliation,
although French companies may suffer in public procurement tenders.
The current Turkish government may also up the populist rhetoric in an
attempt to placate growing concerns over the curbing of individual
freedoms within Turkey.