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No compromise on Nagorno Karabakh in current political situation - Fiona Hill
Sat 24 December 2011 07:11 GMT | 7:11 Local Time
Fiona Hill
News.Az reprints from Vestnik Kavkaza interview with Fiona Hill, an
expert on Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union from
Brookings Institution contemplates on ways of Nagorno Karabakh
conflict settlement.
What is the main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict?
The main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict is that
the cooperation from both sides, both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and
perhaps especially of Azerbaijan are not ready for compromise. Both of
the leaders have not been able to show the idea of a compromise to
their populations. It is the political situation inside of the
countries that is really blocking any kind of settlement at this stage
so it is better for the both presidents that there is no resolution at
this stage.
So there is actually no way for a compromise nowadays, yes?
Not at the current juncture. You know, as Russians say, in principle
there can be a compromise, but under current political situation there
really is not.
In this context is there a possibility for full-scale hostilities to be resumed?
I think it is a real risk of miscalculation, as far as we continue to
see violence, the exchange of fire, sniper cups, regular killings of
soldiers on both sides, there is really a risk of an escalation, a
miscalculation and as a result of this the resumption of violence. It
is helped by the rhetoric, by what the presidents say in the public
contact. So I think most of the experts, most of the people who work
on this issue are very concerned.
Do experts think that there are any changes in the current political
agenda, in Russian foreign policy because of the new elections and
maybe the new government that can change the situation in Nagorno
Karabakh between the two sides?
Well, it is possible, I would not say that it is probable and we have
to see what happens in the Russian elections and how the new
government is formed , but the fact the president Dmitry Medvedev made
a good effort, it really seems like a very sincere effort to find a
way of resolution and put a lot of time and energy into this but as we
see he did not succeed because the two presidents were not ready.
It is likely that even the president Putin and the new Russian
government would have the same difficulty. Sargsyan and Aliyev are not
ready and not able, they are not just ready but not able in a larger
sense to try to be able to do this and Russia cannot impose the
settlement from outside, and more generally all other international
actors cannot impose the settlement. It is not demanded. It has been
very clear that it is not going to be possible. Russia wants to see
the settlement and Dmitry Medvedev made an effort, it was a very
promising sign, but he still did not succeed. Most problems have
ground in the region. Just from the international prospective.
Do you and other experts think that Azerbaijan and Armenia will face
full-scale warfare in the nearest future, I mean nowadays, not in two
years?
I think it is possible, it is a potential, I am not saying that it is
going to happen for sure, there is a risk of miscalculation. And the
issue of compromise is just about whether the two presidents are ready
to take the steps, it is about the domestic politics in Armenia and
Azerbaijan that it affected by the international environments but
ultimately it is about their politics and their calculation on
whether they can really afford to make a compromise. Does it make
sense to you?
In the case of the attempt to settle the conflict and to stop the
hostility by those two presidents there is a chance to reach a
peaceful conclusion for the conflict?
There is, but they have to make some tough decisions. I think
everybody knows what the basis for compromise is, but the question is
whether the domestic politics of Armenia and Azerbaijan permits it,
whether Sargsyan and Aliyev personally feel that they have enough of
what Americans call a political capital, whether they have enough
legitimacy and enough political strength to be able reach that
compromise. I think it is all really about the decisions that Sargsyan
and Aliyev have to make personally.
The interview was published in Vestnik Kavkaza
News.Az
Sat 24 December 2011 07:11 GMT | 7:11 Local Time
Fiona Hill
News.Az reprints from Vestnik Kavkaza interview with Fiona Hill, an
expert on Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union from
Brookings Institution contemplates on ways of Nagorno Karabakh
conflict settlement.
What is the main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict?
The main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict is that
the cooperation from both sides, both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and
perhaps especially of Azerbaijan are not ready for compromise. Both of
the leaders have not been able to show the idea of a compromise to
their populations. It is the political situation inside of the
countries that is really blocking any kind of settlement at this stage
so it is better for the both presidents that there is no resolution at
this stage.
So there is actually no way for a compromise nowadays, yes?
Not at the current juncture. You know, as Russians say, in principle
there can be a compromise, but under current political situation there
really is not.
In this context is there a possibility for full-scale hostilities to be resumed?
I think it is a real risk of miscalculation, as far as we continue to
see violence, the exchange of fire, sniper cups, regular killings of
soldiers on both sides, there is really a risk of an escalation, a
miscalculation and as a result of this the resumption of violence. It
is helped by the rhetoric, by what the presidents say in the public
contact. So I think most of the experts, most of the people who work
on this issue are very concerned.
Do experts think that there are any changes in the current political
agenda, in Russian foreign policy because of the new elections and
maybe the new government that can change the situation in Nagorno
Karabakh between the two sides?
Well, it is possible, I would not say that it is probable and we have
to see what happens in the Russian elections and how the new
government is formed , but the fact the president Dmitry Medvedev made
a good effort, it really seems like a very sincere effort to find a
way of resolution and put a lot of time and energy into this but as we
see he did not succeed because the two presidents were not ready.
It is likely that even the president Putin and the new Russian
government would have the same difficulty. Sargsyan and Aliyev are not
ready and not able, they are not just ready but not able in a larger
sense to try to be able to do this and Russia cannot impose the
settlement from outside, and more generally all other international
actors cannot impose the settlement. It is not demanded. It has been
very clear that it is not going to be possible. Russia wants to see
the settlement and Dmitry Medvedev made an effort, it was a very
promising sign, but he still did not succeed. Most problems have
ground in the region. Just from the international prospective.
Do you and other experts think that Azerbaijan and Armenia will face
full-scale warfare in the nearest future, I mean nowadays, not in two
years?
I think it is possible, it is a potential, I am not saying that it is
going to happen for sure, there is a risk of miscalculation. And the
issue of compromise is just about whether the two presidents are ready
to take the steps, it is about the domestic politics in Armenia and
Azerbaijan that it affected by the international environments but
ultimately it is about their politics and their calculation on
whether they can really afford to make a compromise. Does it make
sense to you?
In the case of the attempt to settle the conflict and to stop the
hostility by those two presidents there is a chance to reach a
peaceful conclusion for the conflict?
There is, but they have to make some tough decisions. I think
everybody knows what the basis for compromise is, but the question is
whether the domestic politics of Armenia and Azerbaijan permits it,
whether Sargsyan and Aliyev personally feel that they have enough of
what Americans call a political capital, whether they have enough
legitimacy and enough political strength to be able reach that
compromise. I think it is all really about the decisions that Sargsyan
and Aliyev have to make personally.
The interview was published in Vestnik Kavkaza
News.Az