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CAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BE A SUPRISE?
Hurriyet Daily News
Dec 26 2011
Turkey
While debates on President Abdullah Gul's presidential term are
ongoing, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mentioned seven years
for the first time. Erdoğan's Cankaya (the presidential mansion)
calculations have postponed the confirmation of this subject until
the beginning of 2012.
In the first week of January, the Parliamentary Constitutional
Commission will meet and will make alterations to the Constitution
so that Gul's presidential term ends in 2014. But this will not
end the debates; on the contrary, it will rekindle them. It is
highly probable that the opposition will take the amendment to the
Constitutional Court.
Obviously, Erdoğan's Cankaya calculations will radically change the
equilibriums starting from the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Several assumptions, estimations and questions are voiced in the
corridors and lobbies of politics...
Will Erdoğan ascend to Cankaya? If he is going to try this, will he do
this to be the first president elected by popular vote? Will Gul lead
the party, if that is the case? If Erdoğan is elected, can he stay in
Cankaya as an "unauthorized" and "ineffective" president? Will he say
"yes" to Gul's leading the AKP? Or will he support another name loyal
to him? Will he make use of the writing of a new constitution and
propose a presidential or semi-presidential model? Will he retreat and
set up a foundation and devote himself to social affairs, justifying
his move with the "three-term principle" of the AKP statute?
Nobody but Erdoğan knows the answers to these precise questions
whispered in the deep corridors of the AKP. The main reason of the
intraparty tension is based on this. Because Erdoğan is not sharing
his game plan with anybody, his close aides are stumbling. A leading
AKP official said, "If the three-term principle stays valid, only a
few ministers such as Ahmet Davutoğlu, İsmet Yılmaz, Erdoğan Bayraktar
and Ertuğrul Gunay will be able to continue among the 25 ministers.
The others have to wait a term. There are many people in this situation
in the party. "
If that statute article stays, the core administration of the AKP
will be empty by the first elections. Several important names such
as Bulent Arınc, Ali Babacan, Binali Yıldırım and Hayati Yazıcı from
the Cabinet as well as Speaker of Parliament Cemil Cicek and Huseyin
Celik and Mehmet Ali Şahin from the party organization will not be
able to run for office. A total of 74 deputies are covered by this
rule. In other words, those names that have moved the AKP to its
present position have to withdraw. There are those who want the ban
to be lifted but Erdoğan is resisting...
One of the AKP founders, Cuneyt Zapsu is one of those names who know
Erdoğan closely. He spoke in the southeastern city of Kahramanmaraş
the other day, saying, "Talk to people who know the prime minister
well. If there is a major announcement to be made at 12:00, even if
the time is 11:59, nobody knows for sure. This includes his wife also.
He says nothing to anybody. Will he become the president? Everybody
says he will be, but he can draw back at the last minute and may not
become the president." Erdoğan had retreated into a similar silence
until the last moment during Gul's Cankaya candidacy.
AKP is waiting for Erdoğan's decision. And, it seems as if the
Cankaya process will be painful in terms of the AKP. The cards will be
reshuffled whether or not Erdoğan ascends to Cankaya. Erdoğan may give
clues during the 2012 autumn congress about the changes in the party's
core administrators and in the cabinet and what his decision for 2014
will be. Expectations in the AKP corridors are all in that direction...
Just as Zapsu, many AKP members agree that the surprise-loving Erdoğan
will surprise everybody.
Core positions in opposition may change soon
The "extreme nationalist" wing within the main opposition Republican
People's Party (CHP) is pressing for an exclusive congress to discuss
statutes with external support from former leader Deniz Baykal and
former general secretary Onder Sav. Their aim is to make the statutes
they have created "more democratic" so that they can maintain the
supporter balance and gain advantages in the party general assembly for
the main congress. Because CHP leader Kılıcdaroğlu knows this, he is
opposing them. It is being whispered in the corridors that Kılıcdaroğlu
is highlighting the names of some opponents in an effort to break
the group's resistance and prevent the opposition from growing.
ECHR option to confront France's decision
Republican People's Party (CHP) İzmir Deputy Rıza Turmen is an
experienced European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) judge. He said the
motion adopted in the French Parliament that criminalizes the denial
of Armenian genocide claims can be taken to court. Turmen said it
could be an individual's case or it could be that of the state,
but a state case could also have a political bill.
Turmen suggested another avenue: He said a case could be opened in the
International Court of Justice after recognizing the authority of the
court. The government is said to have noted Turmen's options. My guess
is that the government is waiting for the French Senate's decision.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Hurriyet Daily News
Dec 26 2011
Turkey
While debates on President Abdullah Gul's presidential term are
ongoing, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mentioned seven years
for the first time. Erdoğan's Cankaya (the presidential mansion)
calculations have postponed the confirmation of this subject until
the beginning of 2012.
In the first week of January, the Parliamentary Constitutional
Commission will meet and will make alterations to the Constitution
so that Gul's presidential term ends in 2014. But this will not
end the debates; on the contrary, it will rekindle them. It is
highly probable that the opposition will take the amendment to the
Constitutional Court.
Obviously, Erdoğan's Cankaya calculations will radically change the
equilibriums starting from the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Several assumptions, estimations and questions are voiced in the
corridors and lobbies of politics...
Will Erdoğan ascend to Cankaya? If he is going to try this, will he do
this to be the first president elected by popular vote? Will Gul lead
the party, if that is the case? If Erdoğan is elected, can he stay in
Cankaya as an "unauthorized" and "ineffective" president? Will he say
"yes" to Gul's leading the AKP? Or will he support another name loyal
to him? Will he make use of the writing of a new constitution and
propose a presidential or semi-presidential model? Will he retreat and
set up a foundation and devote himself to social affairs, justifying
his move with the "three-term principle" of the AKP statute?
Nobody but Erdoğan knows the answers to these precise questions
whispered in the deep corridors of the AKP. The main reason of the
intraparty tension is based on this. Because Erdoğan is not sharing
his game plan with anybody, his close aides are stumbling. A leading
AKP official said, "If the three-term principle stays valid, only a
few ministers such as Ahmet Davutoğlu, İsmet Yılmaz, Erdoğan Bayraktar
and Ertuğrul Gunay will be able to continue among the 25 ministers.
The others have to wait a term. There are many people in this situation
in the party. "
If that statute article stays, the core administration of the AKP
will be empty by the first elections. Several important names such
as Bulent Arınc, Ali Babacan, Binali Yıldırım and Hayati Yazıcı from
the Cabinet as well as Speaker of Parliament Cemil Cicek and Huseyin
Celik and Mehmet Ali Şahin from the party organization will not be
able to run for office. A total of 74 deputies are covered by this
rule. In other words, those names that have moved the AKP to its
present position have to withdraw. There are those who want the ban
to be lifted but Erdoğan is resisting...
One of the AKP founders, Cuneyt Zapsu is one of those names who know
Erdoğan closely. He spoke in the southeastern city of Kahramanmaraş
the other day, saying, "Talk to people who know the prime minister
well. If there is a major announcement to be made at 12:00, even if
the time is 11:59, nobody knows for sure. This includes his wife also.
He says nothing to anybody. Will he become the president? Everybody
says he will be, but he can draw back at the last minute and may not
become the president." Erdoğan had retreated into a similar silence
until the last moment during Gul's Cankaya candidacy.
AKP is waiting for Erdoğan's decision. And, it seems as if the
Cankaya process will be painful in terms of the AKP. The cards will be
reshuffled whether or not Erdoğan ascends to Cankaya. Erdoğan may give
clues during the 2012 autumn congress about the changes in the party's
core administrators and in the cabinet and what his decision for 2014
will be. Expectations in the AKP corridors are all in that direction...
Just as Zapsu, many AKP members agree that the surprise-loving Erdoğan
will surprise everybody.
Core positions in opposition may change soon
The "extreme nationalist" wing within the main opposition Republican
People's Party (CHP) is pressing for an exclusive congress to discuss
statutes with external support from former leader Deniz Baykal and
former general secretary Onder Sav. Their aim is to make the statutes
they have created "more democratic" so that they can maintain the
supporter balance and gain advantages in the party general assembly for
the main congress. Because CHP leader Kılıcdaroğlu knows this, he is
opposing them. It is being whispered in the corridors that Kılıcdaroğlu
is highlighting the names of some opponents in an effort to break
the group's resistance and prevent the opposition from growing.
ECHR option to confront France's decision
Republican People's Party (CHP) İzmir Deputy Rıza Turmen is an
experienced European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) judge. He said the
motion adopted in the French Parliament that criminalizes the denial
of Armenian genocide claims can be taken to court. Turmen said it
could be an individual's case or it could be that of the state,
but a state case could also have a political bill.
Turmen suggested another avenue: He said a case could be opened in the
International Court of Justice after recognizing the authority of the
court. The government is said to have noted Turmen's options. My guess
is that the government is waiting for the French Senate's decision.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress