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ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN: "WE NEED TO CHANGE THE NATURE OF SOCIETY PRIOR TO RESOLVING THE KARABAKH CONFLICT"
Vestnik Kavkaza
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/21302.html
Dec 26 2011
Russia
The head of the 'Caucasus' Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, sums up
the political developments that took place in Armenia in the passing
year in his interview to VK.
- What event was the most important one in the political life of
Armenia this year?
- The most important development was the search for a compromise
between the ruling coalition and the opposition - the Armenian
National Congress. I think they tried to work out some basic rules of
interaction on the eve of 2012 parliamentary elections. This attempt
by power and opposition to interact constructively was one of the
most important trends of the year.
- Is it possible that this dialogue will contribute to a relatively
calm election?
- It is obvious that the ANC is geared up for an election campaign
and not for a revolution (for the first time in our history, I
should mention). And I believe that, despite all the rhetoric, if
the ANC gets a number of seats that satisfies it, it will agree to
participate in our Parliament. This would signal the beginning of a
new political era in Armenia. Up until now those political parties
who lost the elections refused to recognize their legitimacy. Now
we'll have to wait and see whether the opposition would accept its
mandates or declare the elections to be rigged.
- What would you say on the political picture of the year in general?
- There were three main trends. First of all, there was the
abovementioned process of the coalition-opposition dialogue. Secondly,
both political camps had to deal with internal contradictions. And
thirdly, there was a personnel reshuffle in the government, aimed
at reducing the influence of oligarchs and monopolists. This process
isn't yet complete, so we'll have to wait and see.
- What key event is most likely to happen next year?
- Of course, it is the parliamentary election. Will the elites
recognize its results or not? This is the main question.
- What was the most important event of the passing year as far as
foreign policy is concerned?
- I think it is the 'Eastern partnership' program and the growing
interaction with the EU. But close relations with Russia are also
important.
- What are the results of the Nagorno-Karabakh process this year?
- It is generally accepted that all sides are experiencing
disappointment after all the trilateral presidential meetings came to
nothing. It is true that Russia's attempt to settle the conflict was
doomed to fail and now it is obvious that no solution to the conflict
will be found soon. Experts understood this a long while ago, but
now it is becoming clear to the general populations, however, the
societies themselves have changed.
- What social changes are you referring to?
- Azerbaijan is allegedly constructing a wall on its border with
Nagorno-Karabakh. I don't know whether it's true or not,but the very
suggestion is symptomatic. No, it's not Azerbaijan that threatens
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the positions are reversed. On the other
hand, Armenia declares its intention to construct a highway from Sotok
to the northern part of Karabakh - through the very territory that
is supposed to be given back to Azerbaijan as soon as possible. You
can see that the elites as well as the general populations of
the countries in question have changed their attitudes towards the
conflict. Azerbaijani can't take the construction of the road lightly,
nor can Armenians take the construction of the wall lightly.
- What is your prognosis on possible ways and terms of the conflict's
resolution?
- There is no possible solution that hasn't been invented yet.
Karabakh is more about the balance between the parties. And today it
is impossible to resolve the conflict, as the Azerbaijani side isn't
ready for concessions acceptable to the Armenian side and vice-versa.
But we should stop thinking of it terms of the 18th century and turn
to 21st-century means of conflict settlement.
We need to change the nature of the society prior to resolving
the Karabakh conflict - change the societies in Nagorno-Karabakh,
Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is 'younger'
than all other similar conflicts, so why should it be resolved sooner
than all of them?
We have decades of work ahead of us. I have no specific expectations
for the next year or the year after that.
Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK .
Vestnik Kavkaza
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/21302.html
Dec 26 2011
Russia
The head of the 'Caucasus' Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, sums up
the political developments that took place in Armenia in the passing
year in his interview to VK.
- What event was the most important one in the political life of
Armenia this year?
- The most important development was the search for a compromise
between the ruling coalition and the opposition - the Armenian
National Congress. I think they tried to work out some basic rules of
interaction on the eve of 2012 parliamentary elections. This attempt
by power and opposition to interact constructively was one of the
most important trends of the year.
- Is it possible that this dialogue will contribute to a relatively
calm election?
- It is obvious that the ANC is geared up for an election campaign
and not for a revolution (for the first time in our history, I
should mention). And I believe that, despite all the rhetoric, if
the ANC gets a number of seats that satisfies it, it will agree to
participate in our Parliament. This would signal the beginning of a
new political era in Armenia. Up until now those political parties
who lost the elections refused to recognize their legitimacy. Now
we'll have to wait and see whether the opposition would accept its
mandates or declare the elections to be rigged.
- What would you say on the political picture of the year in general?
- There were three main trends. First of all, there was the
abovementioned process of the coalition-opposition dialogue. Secondly,
both political camps had to deal with internal contradictions. And
thirdly, there was a personnel reshuffle in the government, aimed
at reducing the influence of oligarchs and monopolists. This process
isn't yet complete, so we'll have to wait and see.
- What key event is most likely to happen next year?
- Of course, it is the parliamentary election. Will the elites
recognize its results or not? This is the main question.
- What was the most important event of the passing year as far as
foreign policy is concerned?
- I think it is the 'Eastern partnership' program and the growing
interaction with the EU. But close relations with Russia are also
important.
- What are the results of the Nagorno-Karabakh process this year?
- It is generally accepted that all sides are experiencing
disappointment after all the trilateral presidential meetings came to
nothing. It is true that Russia's attempt to settle the conflict was
doomed to fail and now it is obvious that no solution to the conflict
will be found soon. Experts understood this a long while ago, but
now it is becoming clear to the general populations, however, the
societies themselves have changed.
- What social changes are you referring to?
- Azerbaijan is allegedly constructing a wall on its border with
Nagorno-Karabakh. I don't know whether it's true or not,but the very
suggestion is symptomatic. No, it's not Azerbaijan that threatens
Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the positions are reversed. On the other
hand, Armenia declares its intention to construct a highway from Sotok
to the northern part of Karabakh - through the very territory that
is supposed to be given back to Azerbaijan as soon as possible. You
can see that the elites as well as the general populations of
the countries in question have changed their attitudes towards the
conflict. Azerbaijani can't take the construction of the road lightly,
nor can Armenians take the construction of the wall lightly.
- What is your prognosis on possible ways and terms of the conflict's
resolution?
- There is no possible solution that hasn't been invented yet.
Karabakh is more about the balance between the parties. And today it
is impossible to resolve the conflict, as the Azerbaijani side isn't
ready for concessions acceptable to the Armenian side and vice-versa.
But we should stop thinking of it terms of the 18th century and turn
to 21st-century means of conflict settlement.
We need to change the nature of the society prior to resolving
the Karabakh conflict - change the societies in Nagorno-Karabakh,
Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is 'younger'
than all other similar conflicts, so why should it be resolved sooner
than all of them?
We have decades of work ahead of us. I have no specific expectations
for the next year or the year after that.
Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK .