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  • Alexander Iskandaryan: "We Need To Change The Nature Of Society Prio

    ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN: "WE NEED TO CHANGE THE NATURE OF SOCIETY PRIOR TO RESOLVING THE KARABAKH CONFLICT"

    Vestnik Kavkaza
    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/21302.html
    Dec 26 2011
    Russia

    The head of the 'Caucasus' Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, sums up
    the political developments that took place in Armenia in the passing
    year in his interview to VK.

    - What event was the most important one in the political life of
    Armenia this year?

    - The most important development was the search for a compromise
    between the ruling coalition and the opposition - the Armenian
    National Congress. I think they tried to work out some basic rules of
    interaction on the eve of 2012 parliamentary elections. This attempt
    by power and opposition to interact constructively was one of the
    most important trends of the year.

    - Is it possible that this dialogue will contribute to a relatively
    calm election?

    - It is obvious that the ANC is geared up for an election campaign
    and not for a revolution (for the first time in our history, I
    should mention). And I believe that, despite all the rhetoric, if
    the ANC gets a number of seats that satisfies it, it will agree to
    participate in our Parliament. This would signal the beginning of a
    new political era in Armenia. Up until now those political parties
    who lost the elections refused to recognize their legitimacy. Now
    we'll have to wait and see whether the opposition would accept its
    mandates or declare the elections to be rigged.

    - What would you say on the political picture of the year in general?

    - There were three main trends. First of all, there was the
    abovementioned process of the coalition-opposition dialogue. Secondly,
    both political camps had to deal with internal contradictions. And
    thirdly, there was a personnel reshuffle in the government, aimed
    at reducing the influence of oligarchs and monopolists. This process
    isn't yet complete, so we'll have to wait and see.

    - What key event is most likely to happen next year?

    - Of course, it is the parliamentary election. Will the elites
    recognize its results or not? This is the main question.

    - What was the most important event of the passing year as far as
    foreign policy is concerned?

    - I think it is the 'Eastern partnership' program and the growing
    interaction with the EU. But close relations with Russia are also
    important.

    - What are the results of the Nagorno-Karabakh process this year?

    - It is generally accepted that all sides are experiencing
    disappointment after all the trilateral presidential meetings came to
    nothing. It is true that Russia's attempt to settle the conflict was
    doomed to fail and now it is obvious that no solution to the conflict
    will be found soon. Experts understood this a long while ago, but
    now it is becoming clear to the general populations, however, the
    societies themselves have changed.

    - What social changes are you referring to?

    - Azerbaijan is allegedly constructing a wall on its border with
    Nagorno-Karabakh. I don't know whether it's true or not,but the very
    suggestion is symptomatic. No, it's not Azerbaijan that threatens
    Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the positions are reversed. On the other
    hand, Armenia declares its intention to construct a highway from Sotok
    to the northern part of Karabakh - through the very territory that
    is supposed to be given back to Azerbaijan as soon as possible. You
    can see that the elites as well as the general populations of
    the countries in question have changed their attitudes towards the
    conflict. Azerbaijani can't take the construction of the road lightly,
    nor can Armenians take the construction of the wall lightly.

    - What is your prognosis on possible ways and terms of the conflict's
    resolution?

    - There is no possible solution that hasn't been invented yet.

    Karabakh is more about the balance between the parties. And today it
    is impossible to resolve the conflict, as the Azerbaijani side isn't
    ready for concessions acceptable to the Armenian side and vice-versa.

    But we should stop thinking of it terms of the 18th century and turn
    to 21st-century means of conflict settlement.

    We need to change the nature of the society prior to resolving
    the Karabakh conflict - change the societies in Nagorno-Karabakh,
    Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is 'younger'
    than all other similar conflicts, so why should it be resolved sooner
    than all of them?

    We have decades of work ahead of us. I have no specific expectations
    for the next year or the year after that.

    Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK .

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