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2011 FOR KARABAKH: NO SIGN (OR PROSPECT) OF PROGRESS AS PEACE BROKERS WORK TO AVERT RENEWED HOSTILITIES
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
27.12.11 | 15:36
2011 became a year of practical freezing of political negotiations
on the Karabakh settlement and intensified efforts to prevent the
use of force and to build confidence measures.
During the year that saw the recognition of South Sudan as an
independent state, leaders in Karabakh stated that, in parallel with
the negotiations, it will begin diplomatic work for the international
recognition of the republic.
The results could be felt already in autumn as Uruguay's Minister for
Foreign Affairs Luis Almagro stated, unexpectedly for many, that his
country backs Nagorno-Karabakh's self-determination. As a result,
the Karabakh online newspaper Artsakhnews recognized the Uruguayan
foreign minister as the Man of the Year.
The first flight from a newly built airport in Stepanakert had been
announced for May. However, Azerbaijan warned both directly and
indirectly that it would shoot even at civilian aircraft. Despite
the fact that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that he would
become the first passenger of a Yerevan-Stepanakert flight, no such
flight has been operated yet.
Meanwhile, the international mediators have tried or pretended to be
trying to reach a political settlement, suggesting that the parties
agree on basic principles. The presidents of Russia, the United States
and France, the three main mediating powers as part of the OSCE Minsk
Group, met on the sidelines of a G8 summit in Deauville, France,
and issued only one joint statement from there and that statement
concerned Karabakh.
The Deauville statement revealed and subsequent statements elaborated
on the approximate basic principles that needed to be agreed upon by
the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The principles were largely
taken as unacceptable in Armenia because of a perceived unacceptable
compromise. For the first time actions of protests against possible
concessions that could be made at a tripartite meeting of the
presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in Kazan were staged.
But the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev-mediated round of talks in
Kazan ended in a failure of the sides to agree on the principles of
settlement, and that development, perhaps, has nullified the so-called
Madrid principles of settlement as well as Russian leadership in the
international mediation efforts. It became clear that Armenia would
not give up Karabakh's independent status, while Baku did not accept
that option. Even Russia's pressure could not change that position.
Although Moscow later sent new proposals to Yerevan and Baku through
its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, nothing major happened afterwards.
The year was also marked by a new escalation of tensions along the line
of contact in Karabakh. Ceasefire violations became more frequent and
major deadly incidents would happen almost every month. At the same
time, Azerbaijan would strongly decline appeals from mediators, as well
as Armenia and even the UN secretary-general and the spiritual leaders
of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia for the withdrawal of snipers from
the front lines. At the same time, Armenia warned that if Azerbaijan
unleashed a new war, it would only hasten the recognition of Karabakh,
which will come out of this new war an even stronger side.
Tensions continued unabated even in autumn, leading to Armenia stating
it was opting for a 'disproportionate response' to the provocations of
Azerbaijan. After the killing of two Armenian soldiers by Azerbaijani
snipers the Armenian side stated that it had also carried out special
operations, during which it destroyed several times more manpower of
the enemy.
After the failure of mediation initiatives the Minsk Group negotiators
began to work for the preservation of the status quo and preventing
the escalation of tensions along the line of contact. The mediating
troika stopped offering principles for a settlement, concessions and
other similar things, while concentrating more on confidence-building
measures. Perhaps this is due to the fact that 2012 will be a year
of elections in Russia, the United States and France, as well as in
Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan.
No news is still good news. The year can be considered successful in
the sense that there were no sharp turns, which could lead to a sharp
escalation of tensions or even a new war in Karabakh, especially
during a very tense period when there is an increased risk of a
major war in the region involving Iran, Israel, the United States
and possibly other Western powers.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
27.12.11 | 15:36
2011 became a year of practical freezing of political negotiations
on the Karabakh settlement and intensified efforts to prevent the
use of force and to build confidence measures.
During the year that saw the recognition of South Sudan as an
independent state, leaders in Karabakh stated that, in parallel with
the negotiations, it will begin diplomatic work for the international
recognition of the republic.
The results could be felt already in autumn as Uruguay's Minister for
Foreign Affairs Luis Almagro stated, unexpectedly for many, that his
country backs Nagorno-Karabakh's self-determination. As a result,
the Karabakh online newspaper Artsakhnews recognized the Uruguayan
foreign minister as the Man of the Year.
The first flight from a newly built airport in Stepanakert had been
announced for May. However, Azerbaijan warned both directly and
indirectly that it would shoot even at civilian aircraft. Despite
the fact that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that he would
become the first passenger of a Yerevan-Stepanakert flight, no such
flight has been operated yet.
Meanwhile, the international mediators have tried or pretended to be
trying to reach a political settlement, suggesting that the parties
agree on basic principles. The presidents of Russia, the United States
and France, the three main mediating powers as part of the OSCE Minsk
Group, met on the sidelines of a G8 summit in Deauville, France,
and issued only one joint statement from there and that statement
concerned Karabakh.
The Deauville statement revealed and subsequent statements elaborated
on the approximate basic principles that needed to be agreed upon by
the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The principles were largely
taken as unacceptable in Armenia because of a perceived unacceptable
compromise. For the first time actions of protests against possible
concessions that could be made at a tripartite meeting of the
presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in Kazan were staged.
But the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev-mediated round of talks in
Kazan ended in a failure of the sides to agree on the principles of
settlement, and that development, perhaps, has nullified the so-called
Madrid principles of settlement as well as Russian leadership in the
international mediation efforts. It became clear that Armenia would
not give up Karabakh's independent status, while Baku did not accept
that option. Even Russia's pressure could not change that position.
Although Moscow later sent new proposals to Yerevan and Baku through
its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, nothing major happened afterwards.
The year was also marked by a new escalation of tensions along the line
of contact in Karabakh. Ceasefire violations became more frequent and
major deadly incidents would happen almost every month. At the same
time, Azerbaijan would strongly decline appeals from mediators, as well
as Armenia and even the UN secretary-general and the spiritual leaders
of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia for the withdrawal of snipers from
the front lines. At the same time, Armenia warned that if Azerbaijan
unleashed a new war, it would only hasten the recognition of Karabakh,
which will come out of this new war an even stronger side.
Tensions continued unabated even in autumn, leading to Armenia stating
it was opting for a 'disproportionate response' to the provocations of
Azerbaijan. After the killing of two Armenian soldiers by Azerbaijani
snipers the Armenian side stated that it had also carried out special
operations, during which it destroyed several times more manpower of
the enemy.
After the failure of mediation initiatives the Minsk Group negotiators
began to work for the preservation of the status quo and preventing
the escalation of tensions along the line of contact. The mediating
troika stopped offering principles for a settlement, concessions and
other similar things, while concentrating more on confidence-building
measures. Perhaps this is due to the fact that 2012 will be a year
of elections in Russia, the United States and France, as well as in
Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan.
No news is still good news. The year can be considered successful in
the sense that there were no sharp turns, which could lead to a sharp
escalation of tensions or even a new war in Karabakh, especially
during a very tense period when there is an increased risk of a
major war in the region involving Iran, Israel, the United States
and possibly other Western powers.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress