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The Economist: Nagorno-Karabakh And Kosovo

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  • The Economist: Nagorno-Karabakh And Kosovo

    NAGORNO-KARABAKH AND KOSOVO

    EX-COMMUNIST EUROPE
    http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2011/12/nagorno-karabakh-an d-kosovo
    Dec 28th 2011

    Eastern approaches

    EARLIER this year Vasily Atajanyan, the acting foreign minister of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, told me that his "country" would recognise Kosovo
    if the former Yugoslav province reciprocated. I conveyed this message
    to Enver Hoxhaj, Kosovo's foreign minister. He declined to take up
    his counterpart's offer, but thought long and hard about how to do
    so politely.

    This little episode speaks volumes for realpolitik in international
    relations, especially when it comes to small countries.

    In Soviet times Nagorno-Karabakh was a mostly Armenian-populated
    autonomous region in Azerbaijan. In Yugoslav times Kosovo was a mostly
    Albanian-populated autonomous province of Serbia.

    Armenians fought a war against the Azeris in the early 1990s, and
    the Kosovo Albanians against the Serbs in 1998-99. Nagorno-Karabakh
    declared independence in 1991. Serbia's administration and security
    forces were expelled from Kosovo by NATO in 1999. The region was then
    run by the United Nations. It declared independence in 2008.

    On the face of it there are plenty of similarities between Soviet
    breakaway statelets like Nagorno-Karabakh and Kosovo. But there are
    also many differences. No countries have recognised Nagorno-Karabakh
    as an independent state, but more than 80 have recognised Kosovo.

    Western countries emphasise that they believe that the Kosovo case
    is not a precedent for others.

    In Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, this argument cuts
    no ice. Indeed, some have a clear case of "recognition envy". Marcel
    Petrosian, a foreign-ministry official, says that Nagorno-Karabakh has
    "stronger arguments" for independence than Kosovo does.

    European and other countries that recognise Kosovo are, he says,
    practising "double standards." Mr Atajanyan echoes this. "We see
    Kosovo as a precedent," he says. "It is a vivid example of how
    conflicts like ours can be solved."

    The two conflicts see Armenians and Kosovars arguing in favour of
    a people's right to self-determination, and Serbia and Azerbaijan
    defending the the right of a state to defend its territorial integrity.

    There are inconsistencies everywhere you look. Russia, an ally of
    Serbia, does not acknowledge the independence of Kosovo. But, unlike
    any Western countries, it recognised the breakaway states of Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia following its war with Georgia in 2008. Serbia
    might like to make common cause with Georgia but does not wish to
    irritate Russia. Likewise Georgia won't work with Serbia because of
    the potential damage to relations with the United States.

    Likewise, the Armenians have been forced to fashion shrewd
    arguments for not recognising Kosovo's independence in order not to
    antagonise their Russian patrons. Armenia has not in fact recognised
    Nagorno-Karabakh, as it reminds American diplomats when they come
    calling asking for it to recognise Kosovo.

    Serbia and Armenia may be on different sides when it comes to
    territorial integrity. But they have much in common, too. Both are
    ageing nations with falling populations. Both talk of their respective
    enemies in the same terms, fearing the respective facts that both
    Kosovo Albanians and Azeris are young and Muslim, and dominate areas
    which they consider theirs by historic right.

    Hayk Khanumyan, an Armenian journalist and civil-society activist,
    employs a novel argument. Kosovo, he says, is an "historic region
    of Serbia" that Albanians have taken. (Albanians, needless to say,
    would disagree with this analysis.) But the real comparison is between
    Kosovo and Nakichevan, a large Azeri exclave separated from Azerbaijan
    proper by Armenian territory.

    Nakichevan, says Mr Khanumyan, was once Armenian. It was lost to the
    Azeris as Kosovo was lost to Albanians. Nagorno-Karabakh, by contrast,
    has not been lost and must be defended.

    Back to Mr Hoxhaj. His message to Mr Atajanyan is that Kosovo can
    only have formal relations with members of the UN, even though Kosovo
    itself has not yet joined. "We understand the aspirations of others
    but we have to be careful," he adds. "We can't shape the destiny of
    other small nations but we have to protect what we have and sometimes
    doing nothing is better than making a mistake."

    In other words, just as the Armenians sympathise with the Kosovars
    but don't want to annoy the Russians, the Kosovars don't want to
    irk their Western backers. Such are the basics of diplomacy in the
    twilight zone of international relations, in which small states and
    nations must manoeuvre to secure their best interests.

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