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EMBARGO FOR RUSSIAN GRAIN WILL BE LIFTED AFTER HARVEST OF 2011
David Stepanyan
ArmInfo
2011-01-26 06:25:00
Interview with Sergey Grinyaev, Director General of the Russian Center
of Strategic Assessment and Forecasts, Doctor of Engineering
Mr. Grinyaev, President of Georgia was on a working visit to Armenia
on January 22-23. What are the problems of prior importance between our
countries and what are the perspectives of development of relations?
Good relations with Georgia are crucial for Armenia as it is really
vital for your country to have one more transport route. But if the
foreign political situation gets worse, Georgia will certainly do
the bidding of its "older brother," the United States, and will close
this route.
Do you thin that high tariffs of Georgia for the transit of goods to
Armenia are continuation of its negative relations with Russia? Does
Russia still plan to manage the transit railway corridor from Iran to
the Black Sea via the territory of Armenia? Will the Russian Railways
attempt to acquire the Georgian railway?
I do not think that Georgia's tariff policy on Armenia depends on
its relations with Russia. Simply, just like many other post-Soviet
republics, Georgia is experiencing economic problems.
Georgia just tries to earn money. Simply in the case of Armenia the
policy of earning on high tariffs is very much like the monopolization
of transport routes and Armenia does have a reason to complain.
Do you think that monopolization of the Armenian economy by Russian
companies, first of all, in the energy sector, promotes development
of Armenian-Russian political relations?
This question is more like a suggestion to weight alternative
versions. Nationalization is not favorable for Armenia because today's
energy infrastructure is surplus for the internal needs.
Second, geopolitical position of Armenia allows using its transit
status with a benefit for the country. In fact, the question of
access of foreign investors to the infrastructure arouses. Out of
all the possible versions I think Russia is the most preferable party
because Russia is the closest neighbor of Armenia and cooperation in
the energy sector allows boosting partnerships also in other spheres.
Is Russia the only country able to fund and build a new nuclear power
unit in Armenia because of some political reasons and in conditions
of external pressure and no interest by foreign investors? What are
the perspectives of that project?
We should refer to the contemporary history, specifically to completion
of a nuclear power plant construction in Busher, Iran. It should be
noted that even in conditions of an unprecedented external pressure
Russia has implemented the given project. In the case with the
Armenian project, problems similar to those with Iran may originate
that will lead to pressure on both the Armenian leadership and the
leadership of the partner-country in the project. I will not dwell
on the problems that may provoke such developments, but I think such
developments possible. In such conditions, the expert believes that
it is necessary to have a clear picture of the country able to assume
such responsibility. The history shows that only Russia is able to
do that in conditions of external pressure.
Earlier on Dec 21 Energy Minister Armen Movsisyan said that the
authorities will exert genuine effort to prevent further rise of
gas tariffs for the population in future. Gazprom announced that in
2011 Armenia will consume natural gas for a market price. Last year
the tariffs had already been increased to 132 drams (37.5%). Will
Armenian economy withstand such "world" tariffs?
The question about the Russian gas tariffs has already become
traditional for many journalists.
Unfortunately, in their items journalists are basing on the relative
figures of the gas price growth, forgetting about the absolute terms.
The situation in the world economy has seriously worsened over the
past year, because of the irresponsive policy of the US Federal
Reserve system, which put about 1,5 trillion dollars on the market,
thanks to which the American currency devaluated much. Incidentally,
this became the reason of the beginning of the so-called "currency
wars" before the G20 summit in Seoul. For this reason, when speaking
about the price growth of this or that product, one should not forget
about inflation - the process of the national currency devaluation.
As for the problem, if the Armenian economy will bear "the world"
prices, Armenia and Russia should more actively draw out and submit
for discussion options of the bilateral cooperation development,
which would promote development of the Armenian economy in general.
Do you expect that the embargo on export of grain from Russia will
be lifted after the harvest of 2011 and how will that predetermine
the grain prices in CIS?
Yes. I think that embargo for the Russian grain will be lifted after
the harvest of 2011. Anyway, there are currently all the prerequisites
for this. Consequently, one may also forecast stabilization of prices
in the grain market, at least in CIS.
If the uranium deposit in the south of Armenia is developed, will it
affect the relations of Armenia and the West considering that uranium
will be processed in Angarsk in Russia?
I see no potential threat of aggravation of Armenia-West relations.
The only problem is that a new supplier may emerge in the international
uranium market (quite closed). For many it will allow diversifying
own purchases of this valuable resource, however, some will not be
quite glad. At the same time, some complications in this unique market
may raise issues of unfair competition. However, I do not think that
the given risk will outweigh the benefit from the beginning of the
deposit development. Moreover, much will depend on the geological
description of the field, which may be specified just after the
beginning of its development.
Inflation in Armenia in 2010 reached its historical maximum over the
last 15 years - 9.4%. After a 14% decline last year economic growth
made up 2.6%, although in due time just low inflation was said to
restrain economic growth. What is the reason of such contradiction?
Unfortunately, Armenia like many other countries, turned out to be
under the influence of consequences of the global financial crisis. At
present, even stronger economies of the world are extremely unstable:
it is just enough to see how the European Union burns with fever
today. As for the specifics of Armenia's economic indicators, I
think much depends on structural peculiarities of the economy and the
country's financial system, as well as on how the country earns and
spends its budget. . Over the years of independence, Armenia's economy
started a process of reconstruction, however it has not yet completed
it. I think the absence of well-defined objectives of mid-term and
long-term development of the country in general, its role and place
in the global division of labor is the main obstacle on this way.
From: A. Papazian
David Stepanyan
ArmInfo
2011-01-26 06:25:00
Interview with Sergey Grinyaev, Director General of the Russian Center
of Strategic Assessment and Forecasts, Doctor of Engineering
Mr. Grinyaev, President of Georgia was on a working visit to Armenia
on January 22-23. What are the problems of prior importance between our
countries and what are the perspectives of development of relations?
Good relations with Georgia are crucial for Armenia as it is really
vital for your country to have one more transport route. But if the
foreign political situation gets worse, Georgia will certainly do
the bidding of its "older brother," the United States, and will close
this route.
Do you thin that high tariffs of Georgia for the transit of goods to
Armenia are continuation of its negative relations with Russia? Does
Russia still plan to manage the transit railway corridor from Iran to
the Black Sea via the territory of Armenia? Will the Russian Railways
attempt to acquire the Georgian railway?
I do not think that Georgia's tariff policy on Armenia depends on
its relations with Russia. Simply, just like many other post-Soviet
republics, Georgia is experiencing economic problems.
Georgia just tries to earn money. Simply in the case of Armenia the
policy of earning on high tariffs is very much like the monopolization
of transport routes and Armenia does have a reason to complain.
Do you think that monopolization of the Armenian economy by Russian
companies, first of all, in the energy sector, promotes development
of Armenian-Russian political relations?
This question is more like a suggestion to weight alternative
versions. Nationalization is not favorable for Armenia because today's
energy infrastructure is surplus for the internal needs.
Second, geopolitical position of Armenia allows using its transit
status with a benefit for the country. In fact, the question of
access of foreign investors to the infrastructure arouses. Out of
all the possible versions I think Russia is the most preferable party
because Russia is the closest neighbor of Armenia and cooperation in
the energy sector allows boosting partnerships also in other spheres.
Is Russia the only country able to fund and build a new nuclear power
unit in Armenia because of some political reasons and in conditions
of external pressure and no interest by foreign investors? What are
the perspectives of that project?
We should refer to the contemporary history, specifically to completion
of a nuclear power plant construction in Busher, Iran. It should be
noted that even in conditions of an unprecedented external pressure
Russia has implemented the given project. In the case with the
Armenian project, problems similar to those with Iran may originate
that will lead to pressure on both the Armenian leadership and the
leadership of the partner-country in the project. I will not dwell
on the problems that may provoke such developments, but I think such
developments possible. In such conditions, the expert believes that
it is necessary to have a clear picture of the country able to assume
such responsibility. The history shows that only Russia is able to
do that in conditions of external pressure.
Earlier on Dec 21 Energy Minister Armen Movsisyan said that the
authorities will exert genuine effort to prevent further rise of
gas tariffs for the population in future. Gazprom announced that in
2011 Armenia will consume natural gas for a market price. Last year
the tariffs had already been increased to 132 drams (37.5%). Will
Armenian economy withstand such "world" tariffs?
The question about the Russian gas tariffs has already become
traditional for many journalists.
Unfortunately, in their items journalists are basing on the relative
figures of the gas price growth, forgetting about the absolute terms.
The situation in the world economy has seriously worsened over the
past year, because of the irresponsive policy of the US Federal
Reserve system, which put about 1,5 trillion dollars on the market,
thanks to which the American currency devaluated much. Incidentally,
this became the reason of the beginning of the so-called "currency
wars" before the G20 summit in Seoul. For this reason, when speaking
about the price growth of this or that product, one should not forget
about inflation - the process of the national currency devaluation.
As for the problem, if the Armenian economy will bear "the world"
prices, Armenia and Russia should more actively draw out and submit
for discussion options of the bilateral cooperation development,
which would promote development of the Armenian economy in general.
Do you expect that the embargo on export of grain from Russia will
be lifted after the harvest of 2011 and how will that predetermine
the grain prices in CIS?
Yes. I think that embargo for the Russian grain will be lifted after
the harvest of 2011. Anyway, there are currently all the prerequisites
for this. Consequently, one may also forecast stabilization of prices
in the grain market, at least in CIS.
If the uranium deposit in the south of Armenia is developed, will it
affect the relations of Armenia and the West considering that uranium
will be processed in Angarsk in Russia?
I see no potential threat of aggravation of Armenia-West relations.
The only problem is that a new supplier may emerge in the international
uranium market (quite closed). For many it will allow diversifying
own purchases of this valuable resource, however, some will not be
quite glad. At the same time, some complications in this unique market
may raise issues of unfair competition. However, I do not think that
the given risk will outweigh the benefit from the beginning of the
deposit development. Moreover, much will depend on the geological
description of the field, which may be specified just after the
beginning of its development.
Inflation in Armenia in 2010 reached its historical maximum over the
last 15 years - 9.4%. After a 14% decline last year economic growth
made up 2.6%, although in due time just low inflation was said to
restrain economic growth. What is the reason of such contradiction?
Unfortunately, Armenia like many other countries, turned out to be
under the influence of consequences of the global financial crisis. At
present, even stronger economies of the world are extremely unstable:
it is just enough to see how the European Union burns with fever
today. As for the specifics of Armenia's economic indicators, I
think much depends on structural peculiarities of the economy and the
country's financial system, as well as on how the country earns and
spends its budget. . Over the years of independence, Armenia's economy
started a process of reconstruction, however it has not yet completed
it. I think the absence of well-defined objectives of mid-term and
long-term development of the country in general, its role and place
in the global division of labor is the main obstacle on this way.
From: A. Papazian