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BAKU: Russia Will Only Benefit From Karabakh Conflict Resolution

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  • BAKU: Russia Will Only Benefit From Karabakh Conflict Resolution

    RUSSIA WILL ONLY BENEFIT FROM KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION

    news.az
    July 1 2011
    Azerbaijan

    News.Az interviews Sahib Aliyev, member of Milli Majlis, the parliament
    of Azerbaijan, and political expert.

    How do you asses the outcome of the recent Kazan meeting between
    Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh
    Sargsyan mediated by Russian leader Dmitriy Medvedev?

    I did not feel optimistic about any significant results on the Karabakh
    conflict settlement in a Kazan meeting. Negative psychological moment
    around the participants of the meeting in Kazan played a role in
    absence of any tangible results in negotiations. One such reason was
    Russian State Duma's ratification of the agreement with Armenia which
    extended stay of Russian military base in Armenia for a longer period
    and that surplus weapons and munitions from the base were donated to
    the Armenian side.

    Of course, all this showed that Armenia would take a constructive
    position in the negotiations. Thus, Armenia once again benefited from
    the policy of maintaining a balance between the conflicting parties
    used by the Karabakh conflict mediators, including Russia itself. In
    other words, officially, mediators and Russia show the same approach
    both to the aggressor and to the side which is subject to aggression.

    Russian media, quoting a diplomatic source close to the talks, reported
    that the Russian president is so disappointed with the outcome of the
    Kazan summit that he was ready to terminate his mediation mission. In
    this case, what might be the "destiny" of the negotiating process on
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement?

    As you know, the states acting as international mediators in the
    Karabakh conflict settlement, at one time or another, took the
    initiative and acted as moderator in solving this problem. Russia has
    acted as a moderator for the last three years. Judging by the Russian
    proverb that "a holy place is never empty," we can assume that if
    Moscow departs from the active mediation in the Karabakh settlement,
    it can be replaced by another moderator from the OSCE Minsk Group
    member countries.

    On the other hand, the Azerbaijani side, which is all the more
    impatient about continuation of the status quo in the Karabakh
    conflict, might not accept this. However, Russia has the most
    significant potential to solve the Karabakh conflict among the
    co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group.

    In the meantime, Russia also will be a party that will benefit from
    the solution of the Karabakh conflict to a greater extent. Only a
    superficial analysis might show that preservation of the Karabakh
    conflict in a frozen state meets Russia's interests in the short term.

    But this state of affairs for the Russian side can continue until the
    first case of force majeure. I mean resumption of hostilities between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan. Therefore, the option of a phased settlement
    of the Karabakh conflict meets interests of not only Azerbaijan but
    also Russia.

    Russia will retain its influence in the South Caucasus region once
    Armenia withdraws forces from areas around Nagorno-Karabakh. Besides,
    Russia can get some dividends in exchange for providing such services.

    We should not forget that Azerbaijan has already given Russia certain
    signals about some dividends. Shortly before the meeting in Kazan
    Azerbaijan joined the Non-Aligned Movement making it clear for the
    Russian side that Baku will not consider NATO membership even in the
    long term.

    Moreover, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev shortly before the
    meeting in Kazan said that Baku does not see a need to build an
    additional pipeline to transport its energy resources. However, as it
    is evident from statements by members of the Russian ruling elite, this
    country has no common approach towards the settlement of the Karabakh
    conflict. In other words, Russia's political leadership initiates the
    meeting between Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, makes efforts to
    achieve progress in the negotiations, however, the military leadership
    of Russia makes statements in favor of the Armenian side.

    Western countries openly support Georgia, and in some cases engage
    in confrontation with Russia because of Georgia. However, the same
    West agrees to and trusts Russia's mediation in the Karabakh conflict
    settlement. What is the reason for such a dual approach of Western
    countries in relation to Azerbaijan and its problems?

    In this context, one should emphasize the results this kind of support
    provided by the West had for Georgia. I mean the war in the Caucasus
    in 2008. West's support for Georgia ended up in a complete loss of
    control over the country's two regions. Also, Azerbaijan holds talks
    rather with countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group than with
    Armenia in Karabakh issue.

    In other words, Azerbaijan's diplomatic resources are directed not
    only against Armenia, but also to neutralize, and in some cases to
    attract OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries to its side. After all, it
    is clear that the co-chair countries, without diplomatic efforts from
    the Azerbaijani side, will have no interest in solving the Karabakh
    conflict. Since all three co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group are interested
    in preserving the status quo in the Karabakh conflict settlement.

    In this respect, I want to emphasize the increased efforts by co-chairs
    lately. Looking at the current situation in the world, one can see
    absence of significant events that could change the international
    situation on the Karabakh issue. The fact that Azerbaijan becomes
    stronger makes international mediators step up efforts.

    What impact the futile Kazan meeting can have on the Karabakh conflict
    settlement and the region as a whole?

    Of course, the threat of war will remain on the agenda as long as the
    lands of Azerbaijan are under occupation especially if Baku constantly
    says that the threat of war resumption will continue.

    However, the statements by the Azerbaijani President make it clear
    that there are still hopes for peaceful resolution of the conflict.

    So, we can say the potential for negotiations still exists.

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