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WHETHER OR NOT PROBLEM OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH HAS SOLUTION
Yuri Snegirev
WPS Agency
July 5, 2011 Tuesday
Russia
Source: Izvestia (Moscow issue)
AN EXPERT: NO TALKS WILL EVER SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH;
Experts say that the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be solved by
negotiations. Fortunately, they also say that there will be no war.
The situation along the contact line where the Azerbaijani and
Nagorno-Karabakh forces face each other is fairly tranquil at this
point. Politicians in Nagorno-Karabakh try to understand why the peace
talks in Kazan, Russia, on June 24 failed. The meeting between the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan arranged by their Russian
counterpart ended with nothing to show for it. Armenia kept demanding
sovereignty for Karabakh. Azerbaijani insisted on restoration of
territorial integrity and promised Karabakh broad powers of an
autonomy.
"Ilham Aliyev will never sign a document that recognizes
Nagorno-Karabakh," said Bagram Atanesjan of the parliament of the
non-recognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. "Besides, a military
parade took place in Baku on June 26, one to honor the Independence
Day. How could anyone expect Azerbaijani leaders to sign such a
document on the eve of the parade? Some source from the Russian
Foreign Ministry had leaked several hours before the talks that there
was no way for them to be successful."
Said Atanesjan, "As for Karabakh, it will never sign a document that
will make it part of Azerbaijan again... regardless of what Moscow
expects. The Azerbaijanis openly say that there are 25,000
"undesirable" persons living in Nagorno-Karabakh. They mean the people
who fought for independence of Karabakh. Any compromise will mean
their deportation... If it is a war, if Azerbaijan sees no other
solution, then we are ready for them. Let them come. Either they reach
Yerevan or we reach Baku. I'd even say that this second outcome is
more likely."
Said political scientist and Institute of the Caucasus Director
Alexander Iskanarjan, "No talks will ever solve the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh. And yet, talks are an important instrument. Even the
Azerbaijani claims that they just might send the army to reconquer
Karabakh are an instrument. Skirmishes, too... All of that are
instruments... Karabakh does not want a war. It has no reasons to wish
it. Azerbaijan has the wish but lacks the capacity. I'm not even
talking military might. A war will void oil contracts, inflation will
soar, there will be refugees all over again, investors will walk away.
No economy will negotiate this storm."
Question: But what about the war in August 2008? Mikhail Saakashvili
lost the war but boosted his rating in Georgia.
Alexander Iskanarjan: Saakashvili had a chance, minor but a chance, to
win a war rapidly. A blitzkrieg. He might have pulled it off. This
option does not exist in Nagorno-Karabakh. No blitzkrieg is possible
here and Baku must know it. I'm telling you therefore that there will
be no war. There will be talks again and again, fruitless. But even
fruitless talks are better than a bloodshed.
WPS'2011
Yuri Snegirev
WPS Agency
July 5, 2011 Tuesday
Russia
Source: Izvestia (Moscow issue)
AN EXPERT: NO TALKS WILL EVER SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH;
Experts say that the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be solved by
negotiations. Fortunately, they also say that there will be no war.
The situation along the contact line where the Azerbaijani and
Nagorno-Karabakh forces face each other is fairly tranquil at this
point. Politicians in Nagorno-Karabakh try to understand why the peace
talks in Kazan, Russia, on June 24 failed. The meeting between the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan arranged by their Russian
counterpart ended with nothing to show for it. Armenia kept demanding
sovereignty for Karabakh. Azerbaijani insisted on restoration of
territorial integrity and promised Karabakh broad powers of an
autonomy.
"Ilham Aliyev will never sign a document that recognizes
Nagorno-Karabakh," said Bagram Atanesjan of the parliament of the
non-recognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. "Besides, a military
parade took place in Baku on June 26, one to honor the Independence
Day. How could anyone expect Azerbaijani leaders to sign such a
document on the eve of the parade? Some source from the Russian
Foreign Ministry had leaked several hours before the talks that there
was no way for them to be successful."
Said Atanesjan, "As for Karabakh, it will never sign a document that
will make it part of Azerbaijan again... regardless of what Moscow
expects. The Azerbaijanis openly say that there are 25,000
"undesirable" persons living in Nagorno-Karabakh. They mean the people
who fought for independence of Karabakh. Any compromise will mean
their deportation... If it is a war, if Azerbaijan sees no other
solution, then we are ready for them. Let them come. Either they reach
Yerevan or we reach Baku. I'd even say that this second outcome is
more likely."
Said political scientist and Institute of the Caucasus Director
Alexander Iskanarjan, "No talks will ever solve the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh. And yet, talks are an important instrument. Even the
Azerbaijani claims that they just might send the army to reconquer
Karabakh are an instrument. Skirmishes, too... All of that are
instruments... Karabakh does not want a war. It has no reasons to wish
it. Azerbaijan has the wish but lacks the capacity. I'm not even
talking military might. A war will void oil contracts, inflation will
soar, there will be refugees all over again, investors will walk away.
No economy will negotiate this storm."
Question: But what about the war in August 2008? Mikhail Saakashvili
lost the war but boosted his rating in Georgia.
Alexander Iskanarjan: Saakashvili had a chance, minor but a chance, to
win a war rapidly. A blitzkrieg. He might have pulled it off. This
option does not exist in Nagorno-Karabakh. No blitzkrieg is possible
here and Baku must know it. I'm telling you therefore that there will
be no war. There will be talks again and again, fruitless. But even
fruitless talks are better than a bloodshed.
WPS'2011