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Today's Zaman, Turkey
July 10 2011
After key Kazan talks, fate of Karabakh now more dim than ever
10 July 2011, Sunday / MAHIR ZEYNALOV , İSTANBUL
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (C), Armenian President Serzh
Sarksyan (L) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev walk as they meet
in Kazan on June 24 to find a permanent solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Former Azerbaijani President Haydar Aliyev once said, in an attempt to
stress the possibility of reconciliation with Armenia, even nations
that had fought with each other for centuries now live peacefully side
by side.
It has increasingly become clear that Aliyev's dream still remains
distant today as Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to blame each other
for failing to reduce the pain of the Karabakh impasse after key talks
in Kazan.
The international community had pinned much hope on the latest peace
talks to find a lasting settlement for Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed
territory between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Observers, however, were not
surprised as leaders failed to embrace this historic chance to make
peace.
The Kazan peace talks, held on June 24, were what Ambassador Robert
Bradtke, the US diplomat involved in international efforts to find a
peaceful solution to the conflict, termed as `probably the most
important point in the process since 2001, when there were efforts
made to get a peace agreement at Key West.'
In a rare move, US President Barack Obama called both leaders a day
before the talks to encourage them to endorse the Basic Principles and
take a `decisive step toward a peaceful settlement.'
The Basic Principles, a document that both leaders were encouraged and
expected to agree upon in Kazan to set the stage for talks on
resolving the conflict, include the returning of occupied territories
adjacent to the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, the right of refugees from
both sides to return, an interim status providing security and
self-governance for Nagorno-Karabakh and an international security
guarantee to keep and maintain the peace deal. Vugar Gojayev, an
independent political analyst based in Baku, said even such high-level
diplomatic pressure was not enough to achieve a breakthrough. `The
international community understands that there is a concrete and
long-discussed framework deal on the table, so it is time to make the
conflicting sides narrow their differences with the Document on Basic
Principles, which could push to pen a complete peace treaty in years
to come,' he added.
Azerbaijan and Armenia were quick to blame each other for the failure
in peace talks.
`The Kazan summit did not achieve a breakthrough because Azerbaijan
was not ready to accept the last version of the Basic Principles,'
Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said in a statement after
the talks. In response to Nalbandian's statement, Novruz Mamedov, head
of the presidential administration's foreign relations department,
told reporters that the Armenian statement showed once again that the
Armenian leadership had no intention of abandoning methods of dirty
propaganda.
`The unconstructive position of the Armenian side is to be blamed for
the absence of serious progress,' he said. `What went wrong in
cautiously optimistic talks is not public,' Gojayev said, adding, `It
is obvious that Armenia demands more unacceptable concessions from
Azerbaijan.' He said that while the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh
remains the bone of contention in the talks, Armenia urges the
mediators to set a concrete date for the referendum, but the
Azerbaijani side is against any concrete dates and modalities of such
a vote. According to Gojayev, the Kazan talks were not the final
chance, but they could have been a turning point in the stalled peace
process.
Reuters reported on June 26, Azerbaijan's armed forces day, that two
days after the talks troops marched across Azadlıq Square in central
Baku, along with convoys of infantry combat vehicles and Russian-made
S-300 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile launchers. Warplanes,
helicopters and drones cruised over the city, as TV stations aired
footage of battleships on duty off the Azerbaijani Caspian coast.
`I am completely sure that our territorial integrity will be resumed
in any possible way,' Aliyev said at the parade. `Therefore, we should
be even stronger,' he underlined. Jale Sultanli, the managing editor
of the Caucasus Edition: Journal of Conflict Transformation, said the
results of the Kazan meeting were not completely surprising, claiming
that the environment in both Azerbaijan and Armenia was not ripe for
the leaders to make any steps forward.
Sultanli added that the Kazan meeting showed that while the
international community can play an important role in the peace
process, its encouragement and pressure is not enough to produce
results.
Turkish-Armenian ties to be in sync with Nagorno-Karabakh process
In a failed attempt to bury a century of hostilities with Armenia,
Turkey launched a reconciliation process with Armenia two years ago.
Despite Turkey's unconvincing diplomatic overtures to urge Azerbaijan
that reconciliation would help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
Azerbaijan's adamant opposition coupling with growing pressure from
the Armenian diaspora stalled the process.
Sultanli argues that the improvement of both processes needs to be
synchronized for reconciliation to have a positive impact on
Nagorno-Karabakh. `If Azerbaijan feels threatened, it will try to
jeopardize the process, again leading to more setbacks that will have
a negative impact on all sides involved,' Sultanli noted.
Drawing on similar lines, Gojayev also asserted that Turkey should
normalize its ties and reopen its border with Armenia only if progress
accepted by Baku is made with a Karabakh peace pact. `My fear is that
Azerbaijan would lose a crucial leverage in influencing the talks on
the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, if Turkey and Armenia's
rapprochement brings the opening of borders and results in the end of
Armenia's isolation. Turkey's refusal to normalize its relations with
Armenia should continue until Armenia withdraws its troops from the
occupied territories and the IDPs [internally displaced persons]
return to their native lands. With the border open with Turkey,
Armenia could toughen its stance at the Karabakh talks,' Gojayev said.
July 10 2011
After key Kazan talks, fate of Karabakh now more dim than ever
10 July 2011, Sunday / MAHIR ZEYNALOV , İSTANBUL
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (C), Armenian President Serzh
Sarksyan (L) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev walk as they meet
in Kazan on June 24 to find a permanent solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Former Azerbaijani President Haydar Aliyev once said, in an attempt to
stress the possibility of reconciliation with Armenia, even nations
that had fought with each other for centuries now live peacefully side
by side.
It has increasingly become clear that Aliyev's dream still remains
distant today as Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to blame each other
for failing to reduce the pain of the Karabakh impasse after key talks
in Kazan.
The international community had pinned much hope on the latest peace
talks to find a lasting settlement for Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed
territory between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Observers, however, were not
surprised as leaders failed to embrace this historic chance to make
peace.
The Kazan peace talks, held on June 24, were what Ambassador Robert
Bradtke, the US diplomat involved in international efforts to find a
peaceful solution to the conflict, termed as `probably the most
important point in the process since 2001, when there were efforts
made to get a peace agreement at Key West.'
In a rare move, US President Barack Obama called both leaders a day
before the talks to encourage them to endorse the Basic Principles and
take a `decisive step toward a peaceful settlement.'
The Basic Principles, a document that both leaders were encouraged and
expected to agree upon in Kazan to set the stage for talks on
resolving the conflict, include the returning of occupied territories
adjacent to the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, the right of refugees from
both sides to return, an interim status providing security and
self-governance for Nagorno-Karabakh and an international security
guarantee to keep and maintain the peace deal. Vugar Gojayev, an
independent political analyst based in Baku, said even such high-level
diplomatic pressure was not enough to achieve a breakthrough. `The
international community understands that there is a concrete and
long-discussed framework deal on the table, so it is time to make the
conflicting sides narrow their differences with the Document on Basic
Principles, which could push to pen a complete peace treaty in years
to come,' he added.
Azerbaijan and Armenia were quick to blame each other for the failure
in peace talks.
`The Kazan summit did not achieve a breakthrough because Azerbaijan
was not ready to accept the last version of the Basic Principles,'
Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said in a statement after
the talks. In response to Nalbandian's statement, Novruz Mamedov, head
of the presidential administration's foreign relations department,
told reporters that the Armenian statement showed once again that the
Armenian leadership had no intention of abandoning methods of dirty
propaganda.
`The unconstructive position of the Armenian side is to be blamed for
the absence of serious progress,' he said. `What went wrong in
cautiously optimistic talks is not public,' Gojayev said, adding, `It
is obvious that Armenia demands more unacceptable concessions from
Azerbaijan.' He said that while the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh
remains the bone of contention in the talks, Armenia urges the
mediators to set a concrete date for the referendum, but the
Azerbaijani side is against any concrete dates and modalities of such
a vote. According to Gojayev, the Kazan talks were not the final
chance, but they could have been a turning point in the stalled peace
process.
Reuters reported on June 26, Azerbaijan's armed forces day, that two
days after the talks troops marched across Azadlıq Square in central
Baku, along with convoys of infantry combat vehicles and Russian-made
S-300 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile launchers. Warplanes,
helicopters and drones cruised over the city, as TV stations aired
footage of battleships on duty off the Azerbaijani Caspian coast.
`I am completely sure that our territorial integrity will be resumed
in any possible way,' Aliyev said at the parade. `Therefore, we should
be even stronger,' he underlined. Jale Sultanli, the managing editor
of the Caucasus Edition: Journal of Conflict Transformation, said the
results of the Kazan meeting were not completely surprising, claiming
that the environment in both Azerbaijan and Armenia was not ripe for
the leaders to make any steps forward.
Sultanli added that the Kazan meeting showed that while the
international community can play an important role in the peace
process, its encouragement and pressure is not enough to produce
results.
Turkish-Armenian ties to be in sync with Nagorno-Karabakh process
In a failed attempt to bury a century of hostilities with Armenia,
Turkey launched a reconciliation process with Armenia two years ago.
Despite Turkey's unconvincing diplomatic overtures to urge Azerbaijan
that reconciliation would help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
Azerbaijan's adamant opposition coupling with growing pressure from
the Armenian diaspora stalled the process.
Sultanli argues that the improvement of both processes needs to be
synchronized for reconciliation to have a positive impact on
Nagorno-Karabakh. `If Azerbaijan feels threatened, it will try to
jeopardize the process, again leading to more setbacks that will have
a negative impact on all sides involved,' Sultanli noted.
Drawing on similar lines, Gojayev also asserted that Turkey should
normalize its ties and reopen its border with Armenia only if progress
accepted by Baku is made with a Karabakh peace pact. `My fear is that
Azerbaijan would lose a crucial leverage in influencing the talks on
the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, if Turkey and Armenia's
rapprochement brings the opening of borders and results in the end of
Armenia's isolation. Turkey's refusal to normalize its relations with
Armenia should continue until Armenia withdraws its troops from the
occupied territories and the IDPs [internally displaced persons]
return to their native lands. With the border open with Turkey,
Armenia could toughen its stance at the Karabakh talks,' Gojayev said.