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RUSSIA AND US ATTEMPT TO END DEADLOCK IN ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI PEACE TALKS
by Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
July 12, 2011
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov made a whistle-stop tour to
Armenia and Azerbaijan on 8-9 July before heading to the US capital
for two days of high-level talks with the US administration. During his
visit to the Armenian capital Yerevan, Lavrov stated that his mission
is to pass on to the Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan a letter from
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev containing new proposals concerning
the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia's top diplomat
did not give any details of the proposals but said that they were drawn
up by Medvedev after the 24 June meeting in the central Russian city
of Kazan. The trilateral meeting was mediated by Medvedev and held
under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE). Despite high expectations among the international
mediators the talks, which aimed to sign the final document, failed as
Azerbaijan presented 10 new points to the final document (seeFrance -
Armenia - Azerbaijan - Russia: 27 June 2011:).
On 9 July Lavrov handed a similar letter to the Azerbaijani president
Ilham Aliyev.
To support Medvedev's efforts, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
Clinton held a telephone conversation with Sargsyan to discuss the next
step in the peace process. Both Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
have been asked by Lavrov to study Medvedev's proposals.
These points are due to be discussed during an upcoming meeting of
OSCE mediators to the region this week.
Significance:Russia, France and the US are co-chairs of the OSCE
Minsk Group entrusted with finding a peaceful solution to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the ethnic-Armenian-populated
Nagorno-Karabakh region. However, their concerted efforts for the past
17 years to find a final solution for the status of the self-declared
republic of Nagorno-Karabakh have only managed to maintain the status
quo. The standoff in peace talks has worsened as in recent years
Azerbaijan has boosted its military spending--it is now larger than
Armenia's national budget. This gives Azerbaijan confidence to raise
its demands despite the fact that it lost the 1988-1994 war that it
waged to suppress the ethnic Armenian movement to seek independence.
However, another war under the co-chair's watch will be damaging,
especially for Russia which has been the main mediator in recent
years. Furthermore, Nagorno-Karabakh has become part of the
collaborative agenda for the US and Russia, which stand divided on
a number of other strategic issues. Medvedev is keen not only to
prevent Azerbaijan to launch a new war but to go one step further. By
resolving this difficult conflict Medvedev would boost his credentials
as a skilled politician both internationally and domestically where
he is likely to run in the 2012 presidential election.
by Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
July 12, 2011
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov made a whistle-stop tour to
Armenia and Azerbaijan on 8-9 July before heading to the US capital
for two days of high-level talks with the US administration. During his
visit to the Armenian capital Yerevan, Lavrov stated that his mission
is to pass on to the Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan a letter from
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev containing new proposals concerning
the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia's top diplomat
did not give any details of the proposals but said that they were drawn
up by Medvedev after the 24 June meeting in the central Russian city
of Kazan. The trilateral meeting was mediated by Medvedev and held
under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE). Despite high expectations among the international
mediators the talks, which aimed to sign the final document, failed as
Azerbaijan presented 10 new points to the final document (seeFrance -
Armenia - Azerbaijan - Russia: 27 June 2011:).
On 9 July Lavrov handed a similar letter to the Azerbaijani president
Ilham Aliyev.
To support Medvedev's efforts, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
Clinton held a telephone conversation with Sargsyan to discuss the next
step in the peace process. Both Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
have been asked by Lavrov to study Medvedev's proposals.
These points are due to be discussed during an upcoming meeting of
OSCE mediators to the region this week.
Significance:Russia, France and the US are co-chairs of the OSCE
Minsk Group entrusted with finding a peaceful solution to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the ethnic-Armenian-populated
Nagorno-Karabakh region. However, their concerted efforts for the past
17 years to find a final solution for the status of the self-declared
republic of Nagorno-Karabakh have only managed to maintain the status
quo. The standoff in peace talks has worsened as in recent years
Azerbaijan has boosted its military spending--it is now larger than
Armenia's national budget. This gives Azerbaijan confidence to raise
its demands despite the fact that it lost the 1988-1994 war that it
waged to suppress the ethnic Armenian movement to seek independence.
However, another war under the co-chair's watch will be damaging,
especially for Russia which has been the main mediator in recent
years. Furthermore, Nagorno-Karabakh has become part of the
collaborative agenda for the US and Russia, which stand divided on
a number of other strategic issues. Medvedev is keen not only to
prevent Azerbaijan to launch a new war but to go one step further. By
resolving this difficult conflict Medvedev would boost his credentials
as a skilled politician both internationally and domestically where
he is likely to run in the 2012 presidential election.