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IS THE KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS PUSHING GOVERNMENT-OPPOSITION DIALOGUE?
by Marianna Grigoryan
EurasiaNet
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63921
July 20 2011
NY
After years of acrimony, the Armenian government and the country's
largest opposition group sat down recently to open a political
dialogue. Some analysts in Yerevan believe the discussions stem
from a government desire to minimize distractions as it considers
recent Russian proposals to resolve the 23-year-long Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.
Just last month, the government backed away from earlier suggestions
that it would meet with representatives of former president Levon
Ter-Petrosian's Armenian National Congress (ANC). "Ultimatums are
unacceptable, and addressing each other with ultimatums is a behavior
that leads nowhere," President Serzh Sargsyan asserted in a June
17 statement.
Presidential spokesperson Armen Arzumanian surprised many Armenians
on July 9 when he announced that the governing coalition, in fact,
had formed a working group to meet with ANC representatives. The
closed-door talks on July 18 went on for nearly two hours at Yerevan's
downtown Erebuni Plaza Hotel. After wrapping up the meeting, both
sides pledged to continue discussions on "a wide range of issues." A
date for their next meeting has not yet been set.
"The main goal is to pass from absolute confrontation to more
cooperative work, and this does not at all mean that political
disagreements between us will be smoothed away," the head of the
government's delegation, Republican Party of Armenia member David
Harutiunian, told journalists. "However, such a platform will enable
us to hear each other's opinion."
The ANC delegation echoed that position. "We have our solution
[to the standoff with the government] -- that is, presidential and
parliamentary elections," said ANC coordinator Levon Zurabian. "But
at the same time, we have agreed that both parties have equal rights,
and [the government] also can propose their solutions."
Independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian sees more than a desire
for cooperation as the motivation behind the government's about-face
on the talks. As elsewhere in the Caucasus, July is tends to be quiet
time for politics, he noted. "The prompt response by Serzh Sargsyan
saying he is ready to speed up the process made me think that he has
serious problems on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and has to come to
terms with Levon Ter-Petrosian," Bozoian reasoned. "Only one factor
can be present here; I suppose it is the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh."
After lackluster round of Karabakh peace talks on June 24 in the
Russian city of Kazan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited
Yerevan on July 8 with fresh proposals for a political settlement. The
Armenian government's about-face on talks with the opposition came
a day later.
Lavrov shuttled off to Baku the same day, and then, on July 11, he
visited Washington, DC. Yerevan has not yet made an official statement
concerning the new Russian proposals, but Azerbaijan reportedly
has provided a written response. Details of that response, however,
have not been made public.
Asked whether Karabakh could have influenced the Armenian government's
decision to engage the opposition, governing Republican Party MP
Hovhannes Sahakian conceded that "[f]oreign policy dictates domestic
policy." At the same time, Sahakian underlined that "we cannot say
that, following the Kazan meeting, the authorities have weakened their
position and that is why they agreed to meet with the opposition."
Armenian Center for Political and International Studies political
analyst Ruben Mehrabian believes that the Karabakh conflict is one of
the "reasons" for the dialogue, but added that public pressure may
also have played a role. The government, mindful of the Arab Spring
example, could not "but pay attention to the voice of society," which
is expressing increasing anger about unemployment and labor migration,
among other topics, Mehrabian claimed. He termed the dialogue "a
manifestation of rationality" by both government and opposition.
Which side will emerge from the talks as the perceived "winner" is
anyone's guess. Bozoian contends that the government's decision to
start negotiations strengthened the ANC's position, but ANC coordinator
Zurabian noted that no concrete proposal from the government yet has
been put on the negotiating table.
Both Mehrabian and Bozoian nonetheless predict that change - in
whatever form -- is in the wind. "[T]his will happen despite the hot
weather and the perception that summer is a dead season in terms of
politics," concluded Mehrabian.
Editor's note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in
Yerevan and the editor of MediaLab.am.
From: Baghdasarian
by Marianna Grigoryan
EurasiaNet
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63921
July 20 2011
NY
After years of acrimony, the Armenian government and the country's
largest opposition group sat down recently to open a political
dialogue. Some analysts in Yerevan believe the discussions stem
from a government desire to minimize distractions as it considers
recent Russian proposals to resolve the 23-year-long Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.
Just last month, the government backed away from earlier suggestions
that it would meet with representatives of former president Levon
Ter-Petrosian's Armenian National Congress (ANC). "Ultimatums are
unacceptable, and addressing each other with ultimatums is a behavior
that leads nowhere," President Serzh Sargsyan asserted in a June
17 statement.
Presidential spokesperson Armen Arzumanian surprised many Armenians
on July 9 when he announced that the governing coalition, in fact,
had formed a working group to meet with ANC representatives. The
closed-door talks on July 18 went on for nearly two hours at Yerevan's
downtown Erebuni Plaza Hotel. After wrapping up the meeting, both
sides pledged to continue discussions on "a wide range of issues." A
date for their next meeting has not yet been set.
"The main goal is to pass from absolute confrontation to more
cooperative work, and this does not at all mean that political
disagreements between us will be smoothed away," the head of the
government's delegation, Republican Party of Armenia member David
Harutiunian, told journalists. "However, such a platform will enable
us to hear each other's opinion."
The ANC delegation echoed that position. "We have our solution
[to the standoff with the government] -- that is, presidential and
parliamentary elections," said ANC coordinator Levon Zurabian. "But
at the same time, we have agreed that both parties have equal rights,
and [the government] also can propose their solutions."
Independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian sees more than a desire
for cooperation as the motivation behind the government's about-face
on the talks. As elsewhere in the Caucasus, July is tends to be quiet
time for politics, he noted. "The prompt response by Serzh Sargsyan
saying he is ready to speed up the process made me think that he has
serious problems on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and has to come to
terms with Levon Ter-Petrosian," Bozoian reasoned. "Only one factor
can be present here; I suppose it is the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh."
After lackluster round of Karabakh peace talks on June 24 in the
Russian city of Kazan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited
Yerevan on July 8 with fresh proposals for a political settlement. The
Armenian government's about-face on talks with the opposition came
a day later.
Lavrov shuttled off to Baku the same day, and then, on July 11, he
visited Washington, DC. Yerevan has not yet made an official statement
concerning the new Russian proposals, but Azerbaijan reportedly
has provided a written response. Details of that response, however,
have not been made public.
Asked whether Karabakh could have influenced the Armenian government's
decision to engage the opposition, governing Republican Party MP
Hovhannes Sahakian conceded that "[f]oreign policy dictates domestic
policy." At the same time, Sahakian underlined that "we cannot say
that, following the Kazan meeting, the authorities have weakened their
position and that is why they agreed to meet with the opposition."
Armenian Center for Political and International Studies political
analyst Ruben Mehrabian believes that the Karabakh conflict is one of
the "reasons" for the dialogue, but added that public pressure may
also have played a role. The government, mindful of the Arab Spring
example, could not "but pay attention to the voice of society," which
is expressing increasing anger about unemployment and labor migration,
among other topics, Mehrabian claimed. He termed the dialogue "a
manifestation of rationality" by both government and opposition.
Which side will emerge from the talks as the perceived "winner" is
anyone's guess. Bozoian contends that the government's decision to
start negotiations strengthened the ANC's position, but ANC coordinator
Zurabian noted that no concrete proposal from the government yet has
been put on the negotiating table.
Both Mehrabian and Bozoian nonetheless predict that change - in
whatever form -- is in the wind. "[T]his will happen despite the hot
weather and the perception that summer is a dead season in terms of
politics," concluded Mehrabian.
Editor's note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based in
Yerevan and the editor of MediaLab.am.
From: Baghdasarian