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TRACK TWO DIPLOMACY?: ARMENIAN ANALYST EXPOUNDS ON CHANGES IN TURKISH POLICIES AFTER MEETING FM IN ANKARA
Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow
26.07.11
Director of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies Richard
Giragosian who met last week with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu as part of a visit of civil society representatives to
Turkey says he once again made sure that "the president of Armenia
is playing a chess game, while Turkey is playing 'theater'." Still,
he says, certain important changes have been observed in post-election
Turkey's policies.
On July 18, representatives of five Armenian non-governmental
organizations, participating in a forum organized by the Economic
Policy Research Institute, suddenly learned that Turkey's chief
diplomat had expressed his desire to meet with them.
According to Giragosian, the timing of the meeting was remarkable,
as two days before that Davutoglu had met with U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton and on the very same day he had a meeting with
the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.
"This, of course, means that by meeting with us Davutoglu meant to
show to the international community that he was trying to, at least,
keep the [Turkish-Armenian] process alive, and we were very careful
not to get into that PR trap, but, of course, it was better meeting
than boycotting it, as the opportunity was bigger than the damage,
fortunately we managed to deliver quite a strong message," says
the analyst.
At the meeting that lasted about 45 minutes, according to Giragosian,
the Turkish side was willing to listen to their rather harsh
judgments and that patience revealed not only that "Davutoglu is a
good diplomat", but also that there are "some changes in the Turkish
politics."
"This is a change in the Turkish policies, because we were allowed to
criticize the Turkish state policy of genocide denial, as in Turkey
they now better understand that there is an asymmetry of power, but
Armenia is not dying without an open border and, most interestingly,
what Turkey seems to recognize now is that the Turkish policy regarding
Armenia is a complete failure," says the analyst, adding that this
realization "has made Armenia's positions even more difficult".
The analyst thinks that based on its own interests, Turkey has some
reasons to return to what once proved to be a stalled rapprochement
with Armenia.
"If Turkey has too many problems in its foreign policies related to
Syria, Iraq, Israel, it may return to the Armenian issue, which could
be a short-term gain. The second reason why they may return [to this
rapprochement] may be related to the Kurdish issue and the opening
of the border to help the Kurdish issue," Giragosian tells ArmeniaNow.
The analyst says that despite the fact that in post-election Turkey
the number of supporters of Turkish-Armenian relations has increased
due to the pro-Kurdish party members in the parliament, he still has
"no great expectations".
"I see no political will to normalize the relations, but I am
optimistic in one respect - as Turkey has no alternative, it must
normalize its relations with Armenia, simply now it has extended its
deadline till 2015 [the year to commemorate the centennial of the
Ottoman-era Genocide of Armenians]," Giragosian says.
The analyst notices another important factor, which is the worsening
of relations between Turkey and its regional ethnic cousin Azerbaijan.
"The confirmation during that meeting was how bad is the relationship
between Turkey and Azerbaijan; in many ways the problem for Turkey
in dealing with Armenia and the region is Azerbaijan, not Yerevan,"
says Giragosian, adding that a situation has emerged where Turkey's
actions in the region are limited and depend on Azerbaijan's response.
"In other words the little brother Azerbaijan is telling the big
brother Turkey what it can and cannot do in the region. This reveals
that Turkey is very upset about that change in the relationship and it
also reveals the death of the concept of 'One Nation, Two States' and
we should all celebrate the funeral of that death," says Giragosian.
('One Nation, Two States' was a well-known thesis advanced by late
Azerbaijani leader Heidar Aliyev and advocated by others in relations
between Azerbaijan and Turkey).
But the trip to Turkey gave the analyst an occasion not only for
interesting observations, but also some controversy around his name,
which Giragosian says came as no surprise to him, but only as proof
that "Turkey is not being sincere with Armenia".
He says his interview with the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet was presented
in a distorted manner, which gave an occasion for some at home to
call him a 'traitor'.
Hurriyet ascribed the following statement to Giragosian:
"My second proposal that I would like to present to the Turkish
Ministry of Foreign Affairs is connected with ASALA (the Armenian
Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia). During his time as foreign
minister Ali Babacan was positive about the idea that Armenian should
start the work in the direction of criticizing the ASALA terrorism.
Davutoglu also thinks this way. I think that what ASALA has done is
terrorism and it should be criticized. However, Armenia's approach
in this regard is like weather - it may get cloudy and then get bright.
But work must be done on this proposal."
Giragosian considers this to be a distortion and a totally different
interpretation of what he said.
"They wrote something that I didn't say. Simply they twisted my words
proceeding from their own interests. In the original interview, as an
analyst, I was explaining what Turkish officials were thinking about
it and may try to do with Armenia, including the fact that Turkish
officials publicly want to raise the ASALA issue against Armenia, but
this was published and translated in Turkish in a totally different
way, as if that was my idea," says Giragosian, who believes the
distortion happened not as a result of a mere mistranslation.
Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow
26.07.11
Director of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies Richard
Giragosian who met last week with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu as part of a visit of civil society representatives to
Turkey says he once again made sure that "the president of Armenia
is playing a chess game, while Turkey is playing 'theater'." Still,
he says, certain important changes have been observed in post-election
Turkey's policies.
On July 18, representatives of five Armenian non-governmental
organizations, participating in a forum organized by the Economic
Policy Research Institute, suddenly learned that Turkey's chief
diplomat had expressed his desire to meet with them.
According to Giragosian, the timing of the meeting was remarkable,
as two days before that Davutoglu had met with U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton and on the very same day he had a meeting with
the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.
"This, of course, means that by meeting with us Davutoglu meant to
show to the international community that he was trying to, at least,
keep the [Turkish-Armenian] process alive, and we were very careful
not to get into that PR trap, but, of course, it was better meeting
than boycotting it, as the opportunity was bigger than the damage,
fortunately we managed to deliver quite a strong message," says
the analyst.
At the meeting that lasted about 45 minutes, according to Giragosian,
the Turkish side was willing to listen to their rather harsh
judgments and that patience revealed not only that "Davutoglu is a
good diplomat", but also that there are "some changes in the Turkish
politics."
"This is a change in the Turkish policies, because we were allowed to
criticize the Turkish state policy of genocide denial, as in Turkey
they now better understand that there is an asymmetry of power, but
Armenia is not dying without an open border and, most interestingly,
what Turkey seems to recognize now is that the Turkish policy regarding
Armenia is a complete failure," says the analyst, adding that this
realization "has made Armenia's positions even more difficult".
The analyst thinks that based on its own interests, Turkey has some
reasons to return to what once proved to be a stalled rapprochement
with Armenia.
"If Turkey has too many problems in its foreign policies related to
Syria, Iraq, Israel, it may return to the Armenian issue, which could
be a short-term gain. The second reason why they may return [to this
rapprochement] may be related to the Kurdish issue and the opening
of the border to help the Kurdish issue," Giragosian tells ArmeniaNow.
The analyst says that despite the fact that in post-election Turkey
the number of supporters of Turkish-Armenian relations has increased
due to the pro-Kurdish party members in the parliament, he still has
"no great expectations".
"I see no political will to normalize the relations, but I am
optimistic in one respect - as Turkey has no alternative, it must
normalize its relations with Armenia, simply now it has extended its
deadline till 2015 [the year to commemorate the centennial of the
Ottoman-era Genocide of Armenians]," Giragosian says.
The analyst notices another important factor, which is the worsening
of relations between Turkey and its regional ethnic cousin Azerbaijan.
"The confirmation during that meeting was how bad is the relationship
between Turkey and Azerbaijan; in many ways the problem for Turkey
in dealing with Armenia and the region is Azerbaijan, not Yerevan,"
says Giragosian, adding that a situation has emerged where Turkey's
actions in the region are limited and depend on Azerbaijan's response.
"In other words the little brother Azerbaijan is telling the big
brother Turkey what it can and cannot do in the region. This reveals
that Turkey is very upset about that change in the relationship and it
also reveals the death of the concept of 'One Nation, Two States' and
we should all celebrate the funeral of that death," says Giragosian.
('One Nation, Two States' was a well-known thesis advanced by late
Azerbaijani leader Heidar Aliyev and advocated by others in relations
between Azerbaijan and Turkey).
But the trip to Turkey gave the analyst an occasion not only for
interesting observations, but also some controversy around his name,
which Giragosian says came as no surprise to him, but only as proof
that "Turkey is not being sincere with Armenia".
He says his interview with the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet was presented
in a distorted manner, which gave an occasion for some at home to
call him a 'traitor'.
Hurriyet ascribed the following statement to Giragosian:
"My second proposal that I would like to present to the Turkish
Ministry of Foreign Affairs is connected with ASALA (the Armenian
Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia). During his time as foreign
minister Ali Babacan was positive about the idea that Armenian should
start the work in the direction of criticizing the ASALA terrorism.
Davutoglu also thinks this way. I think that what ASALA has done is
terrorism and it should be criticized. However, Armenia's approach
in this regard is like weather - it may get cloudy and then get bright.
But work must be done on this proposal."
Giragosian considers this to be a distortion and a totally different
interpretation of what he said.
"They wrote something that I didn't say. Simply they twisted my words
proceeding from their own interests. In the original interview, as an
analyst, I was explaining what Turkish officials were thinking about
it and may try to do with Armenia, including the fact that Turkish
officials publicly want to raise the ASALA issue against Armenia, but
this was published and translated in Turkish in a totally different
way, as if that was my idea," says Giragosian, who believes the
distortion happened not as a result of a mere mistranslation.