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WHY KOMOROWSKI ARRIVED
Lragir.am
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics22771.html
28/07/2011
Interview with Igor Muradyan, political scientist
What is your opinion on the visit of the president of Poland Bronislaw
Komorowski to the countries of the South Caucasus? Does this visit
have geopolitical and economic goals? How should we view the policy of
Poland in the context of international processes related to the region?
Interesting events are underway in Europe. The UK's military and
political positions are weakening. France is trying to conduct a
multi-vector policy, setting up relations with the United States in the
Transatlantic framework, practically establishing close defense and
economic relations with Germany and creating a new defense alliance
with the UK, thereby reminding the United States and Germany about
its traditional interests and goals. France and Germany, acting in a
tandem, are trying to "bind" Russia to their interests, at the same
time, keeping it in a distance.
Europe's intentions regarding Turkey are also interesting when the
Europeans and Americans gradually gain common goals of constraining
the expansion and pretensions of Turkey, in both European and regional
directions. The European policy is increasingly dominated by the
economic crisis into which the United States is plunging.
In its currently vulnerable economic and political situation Russia
has to accept any proposal from the Europeans, but at the same time
such a policy does not seem to produce positive results. In Central
and Western Europe, some political stagnation is observed which is
connected with the entry of the countries of the Baltic and Black
Sea region to the EU and NATO. All these countries have displayed
inability to conduct an active foreign policy and are not likely to.
Nevertheless, they all are interested in the implementation of this
objective because excessive rapprochement of the positions of Germany
and Russia will, no doubt, threaten their independence and reduce
their foreign political freedom.
Currently only Poland shows likelihood to conduct an active foreign
and regional policy, and Poland's relations with the countries of
the Baltic and Black Sea region and the South Caucasus are related
to this. One way or another, the geopolitical goal set by Poland is
to constrain Russia. Poland's European and generally foreign policies
are aimed at the fulfillment of this goal. Whatever positive goals of
Poland's policy on Russia are declared, without achieving the goal of
constraining Russia the entire Polish policy will be void of content
and dull, including for the states of the mentioned regions.
Most states of this region have expectations from Poland because
Warsaw is the main provider of the geopolitics of the United States in
Western Europe and only Warsaw can convey problems to Washington which
are not always heard clearly in the capital of the United States. At
the same time, the election of Bronislaw Komorowski, a responsible
and moderate politician of the European class, introduced a more
reserved political style into these geopolitical goals. Not only the
states of the Baltic and Black Sea region, but also the Moscow-based
politicians have expectations from Bronislaw Komorowski.
Certainly, Poland lacks sufficient political and economic resource to
carry out the role of a geopolitical "pole" but there is a possibility
to pursue a consistent policy which would be an alternative for
the foreign policy of these states. The Western Partnership Policy
initiated by Poland and Sweden not only proposes an alternative format
of integration of these states with Europe but is also an effort to
set the geopolitical goal to constrain Russia. France and Germany
did not welcome this project, not only for economic reasons but also
realizing the goal of the project as a counterbalance to Russia and
a barrier to cooperation between Berlin and Moscow.
The Polish government understands that the visit of the president of
Poland to the South Caucasus will be disapproved not only by Russia but
also by Germany, and Bronislaw Komorowski faces a difficult problem,
considering the hysteric position of Georgia and the funny arrogance
of Azerbaijan's position. However, messages from Azerbaijan and
Georgia did not contain any shocking facts about the visits of the
Polish president except Ilham Aliyev's "complaints" and Tbilisi's
traditional theatre. It is understood that Poland is interested in
these two countries as important participants of the anti-Russian
geopolitical zone, as well as suppliers of fuel.
It should be noted, however, that unlike the notorious GUAM bloc and
other unilateral projects which excluded Armenia's participation,
the Western Partnership and generally Poland's initiatives related
to Western Europe suppose Armenia's participation. In other words,
institutionally, Armenia will hardly lose if it doesn't conduct a
passive policy regarding these initiatives.
Apart from these circumstances, there are also definite geopolitical
expectations. Considering that not only the United States but also
the European leaders are set, for different motives and at different
speeds, to constrain the foreign political ambitions and expansion
of Turkey, presumably every geopolitical project, especially those
related to the Black Sea, will be aimed at this goal.
The dividing lines projected in the Baltic and Black See and the Black
Sea-Caucasian regions are, one way or another, related to constraining
not only Turkey but also Russia. Therefore, the role of Armenia in
this project is unchanged and will gain geopolitical importance in
the course of time. Moreover, Armenia may become a country where the
interests of Europe and Russia will overlap in terms of constraining
Turkey, even though Russia is trying to demonstrate close partnership
with Turkey.
The Polish politicians may make diplomatic statements welcoming
Turkey's entry to the EU but apparently Poland cannot distance itself
from the position of the majority of European states and has no reason
to assist Ankara in implementing its European project.
It should be kept in mind that in the Middle Ages a great part of
the Armenian people lived in Rzeczpospolita and integrated with the
Polish society and policy. By the way, tens of thousands and even
hundreds of thousands of Poles have Armenian origin. How can this
factor be ignored in the relationship of Armenia and Poland?
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Lragir.am
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics22771.html
28/07/2011
Interview with Igor Muradyan, political scientist
What is your opinion on the visit of the president of Poland Bronislaw
Komorowski to the countries of the South Caucasus? Does this visit
have geopolitical and economic goals? How should we view the policy of
Poland in the context of international processes related to the region?
Interesting events are underway in Europe. The UK's military and
political positions are weakening. France is trying to conduct a
multi-vector policy, setting up relations with the United States in the
Transatlantic framework, practically establishing close defense and
economic relations with Germany and creating a new defense alliance
with the UK, thereby reminding the United States and Germany about
its traditional interests and goals. France and Germany, acting in a
tandem, are trying to "bind" Russia to their interests, at the same
time, keeping it in a distance.
Europe's intentions regarding Turkey are also interesting when the
Europeans and Americans gradually gain common goals of constraining
the expansion and pretensions of Turkey, in both European and regional
directions. The European policy is increasingly dominated by the
economic crisis into which the United States is plunging.
In its currently vulnerable economic and political situation Russia
has to accept any proposal from the Europeans, but at the same time
such a policy does not seem to produce positive results. In Central
and Western Europe, some political stagnation is observed which is
connected with the entry of the countries of the Baltic and Black
Sea region to the EU and NATO. All these countries have displayed
inability to conduct an active foreign policy and are not likely to.
Nevertheless, they all are interested in the implementation of this
objective because excessive rapprochement of the positions of Germany
and Russia will, no doubt, threaten their independence and reduce
their foreign political freedom.
Currently only Poland shows likelihood to conduct an active foreign
and regional policy, and Poland's relations with the countries of
the Baltic and Black Sea region and the South Caucasus are related
to this. One way or another, the geopolitical goal set by Poland is
to constrain Russia. Poland's European and generally foreign policies
are aimed at the fulfillment of this goal. Whatever positive goals of
Poland's policy on Russia are declared, without achieving the goal of
constraining Russia the entire Polish policy will be void of content
and dull, including for the states of the mentioned regions.
Most states of this region have expectations from Poland because
Warsaw is the main provider of the geopolitics of the United States in
Western Europe and only Warsaw can convey problems to Washington which
are not always heard clearly in the capital of the United States. At
the same time, the election of Bronislaw Komorowski, a responsible
and moderate politician of the European class, introduced a more
reserved political style into these geopolitical goals. Not only the
states of the Baltic and Black Sea region, but also the Moscow-based
politicians have expectations from Bronislaw Komorowski.
Certainly, Poland lacks sufficient political and economic resource to
carry out the role of a geopolitical "pole" but there is a possibility
to pursue a consistent policy which would be an alternative for
the foreign policy of these states. The Western Partnership Policy
initiated by Poland and Sweden not only proposes an alternative format
of integration of these states with Europe but is also an effort to
set the geopolitical goal to constrain Russia. France and Germany
did not welcome this project, not only for economic reasons but also
realizing the goal of the project as a counterbalance to Russia and
a barrier to cooperation between Berlin and Moscow.
The Polish government understands that the visit of the president of
Poland to the South Caucasus will be disapproved not only by Russia but
also by Germany, and Bronislaw Komorowski faces a difficult problem,
considering the hysteric position of Georgia and the funny arrogance
of Azerbaijan's position. However, messages from Azerbaijan and
Georgia did not contain any shocking facts about the visits of the
Polish president except Ilham Aliyev's "complaints" and Tbilisi's
traditional theatre. It is understood that Poland is interested in
these two countries as important participants of the anti-Russian
geopolitical zone, as well as suppliers of fuel.
It should be noted, however, that unlike the notorious GUAM bloc and
other unilateral projects which excluded Armenia's participation,
the Western Partnership and generally Poland's initiatives related
to Western Europe suppose Armenia's participation. In other words,
institutionally, Armenia will hardly lose if it doesn't conduct a
passive policy regarding these initiatives.
Apart from these circumstances, there are also definite geopolitical
expectations. Considering that not only the United States but also
the European leaders are set, for different motives and at different
speeds, to constrain the foreign political ambitions and expansion
of Turkey, presumably every geopolitical project, especially those
related to the Black Sea, will be aimed at this goal.
The dividing lines projected in the Baltic and Black See and the Black
Sea-Caucasian regions are, one way or another, related to constraining
not only Turkey but also Russia. Therefore, the role of Armenia in
this project is unchanged and will gain geopolitical importance in
the course of time. Moreover, Armenia may become a country where the
interests of Europe and Russia will overlap in terms of constraining
Turkey, even though Russia is trying to demonstrate close partnership
with Turkey.
The Polish politicians may make diplomatic statements welcoming
Turkey's entry to the EU but apparently Poland cannot distance itself
from the position of the majority of European states and has no reason
to assist Ankara in implementing its European project.
It should be kept in mind that in the Middle Ages a great part of
the Armenian people lived in Rzeczpospolita and integrated with the
Polish society and policy. By the way, tens of thousands and even
hundreds of thousands of Poles have Armenian origin. How can this
factor be ignored in the relationship of Armenia and Poland?
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress