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MESSAGE TO TURKEY
Naira Hayrumyan
Lragir.am
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics22787.html
29/07/2011
New notes and even trends have appeared in the political rhetoric of
Armenia. Probably, it is early to talk about change of foreign policy
priorities but tougher rhetoric and rising of the foreign policy bar
is evident.
During the recent week, Serzh Sargsyan outlined not only Armenia's
tough position on the Karabakh issue but also on its relations with
Turkey. In particular, he blamed the leadership of Azerbaijan for the
failure of negotiations, causing lack of confidence in the result
of Baku's anti-democracy. In this way, Serzh Sargsyan acknowledged
that the initiative of the Russian president to get the positions of
Yerevan and Baku closer failed. This means that the current stage of
settlement of the Karabakh issue can be considered over, even though,
according to non-official information, the next three-party meeting
is scheduled in Sochi. And this means that the next proposals of
the mediators can't set forth recommendations of a lower level of
"autonomy" and status for Karabakh.
Interesting notes appeared in Serzh Sargsyan's rhetoric on Turkey. His
statement that the current generation of Armenians freed Karabakh and
the next generation may free Western Armenia caused a real shock in
Turkey. Even though Armenia does not recognize the current borders
of Turkey and advocates the international recognition of the genocide
and does not remove the image of Ararat from its Coat of Arms, Armenia
has never officially voiced territorial claims to Turkey. It is most
likely that this was a written or unwritten condition for Turkey to
enter negotiations with Armenia. Erdogan's reaction and his demand
that Sargsyan should apologize means that Serzh Sargsyan touched the
most sensitive issue for the Turks.
The Turks know the legitimacy of Armenia's territorial claims as
compensation for the genocide, they understand that this factor can
be used by the "malevolent" if not for the fragmentation, at least
for weakening Turkey, so this seemingly ordinary statement by Serzh
Sargsyan has caused a real shock in Turkey. Erdogan even spoke of
a war.
It is not known whether Serzh Sargsyan's statement was a deliberate
message, use of a forceful argument against Turkey by the West,
or Serzh Sargsyan was simply "obsessed" with the conversation with a
Diaspora youth. Obviously, however, Turkey reacted as if it felt great
danger. Same panicky shock is also observed in Azerbaijan where Aliyev
again stated that they will free-Karabakh - through peace or war.
Another interesting feature was revealed in the political rhetoric.
During his visit to Armenia, the president of Poland Komorowski
suddenly announced that his country will contribute to Armenia's
accession to the EU. Until now, Armenia has declared partnership with
both the EU and NATO. But there has been no word on entry into these
two structures, either by Armenia or by the West. But Komarowski's
statement suggests that this prospect is real, and it can change the
political orientation of Armenia and the balance of power radically.
These are just a few facts that may be associated with foreign
policy transformations, constraint of Turkish expansion by the West,
as well as the forthcoming elections in Armenia. It is likely that
Serzh Sargsyan, in anticipation of elections, decided to put a full
stop in his foreign policy, and he did it by raising the bar of
Armenia's claims.
Naira Hayrumyan
Lragir.am
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics22787.html
29/07/2011
New notes and even trends have appeared in the political rhetoric of
Armenia. Probably, it is early to talk about change of foreign policy
priorities but tougher rhetoric and rising of the foreign policy bar
is evident.
During the recent week, Serzh Sargsyan outlined not only Armenia's
tough position on the Karabakh issue but also on its relations with
Turkey. In particular, he blamed the leadership of Azerbaijan for the
failure of negotiations, causing lack of confidence in the result
of Baku's anti-democracy. In this way, Serzh Sargsyan acknowledged
that the initiative of the Russian president to get the positions of
Yerevan and Baku closer failed. This means that the current stage of
settlement of the Karabakh issue can be considered over, even though,
according to non-official information, the next three-party meeting
is scheduled in Sochi. And this means that the next proposals of
the mediators can't set forth recommendations of a lower level of
"autonomy" and status for Karabakh.
Interesting notes appeared in Serzh Sargsyan's rhetoric on Turkey. His
statement that the current generation of Armenians freed Karabakh and
the next generation may free Western Armenia caused a real shock in
Turkey. Even though Armenia does not recognize the current borders
of Turkey and advocates the international recognition of the genocide
and does not remove the image of Ararat from its Coat of Arms, Armenia
has never officially voiced territorial claims to Turkey. It is most
likely that this was a written or unwritten condition for Turkey to
enter negotiations with Armenia. Erdogan's reaction and his demand
that Sargsyan should apologize means that Serzh Sargsyan touched the
most sensitive issue for the Turks.
The Turks know the legitimacy of Armenia's territorial claims as
compensation for the genocide, they understand that this factor can
be used by the "malevolent" if not for the fragmentation, at least
for weakening Turkey, so this seemingly ordinary statement by Serzh
Sargsyan has caused a real shock in Turkey. Erdogan even spoke of
a war.
It is not known whether Serzh Sargsyan's statement was a deliberate
message, use of a forceful argument against Turkey by the West,
or Serzh Sargsyan was simply "obsessed" with the conversation with a
Diaspora youth. Obviously, however, Turkey reacted as if it felt great
danger. Same panicky shock is also observed in Azerbaijan where Aliyev
again stated that they will free-Karabakh - through peace or war.
Another interesting feature was revealed in the political rhetoric.
During his visit to Armenia, the president of Poland Komorowski
suddenly announced that his country will contribute to Armenia's
accession to the EU. Until now, Armenia has declared partnership with
both the EU and NATO. But there has been no word on entry into these
two structures, either by Armenia or by the West. But Komarowski's
statement suggests that this prospect is real, and it can change the
political orientation of Armenia and the balance of power radically.
These are just a few facts that may be associated with foreign
policy transformations, constraint of Turkish expansion by the West,
as well as the forthcoming elections in Armenia. It is likely that
Serzh Sargsyan, in anticipation of elections, decided to put a full
stop in his foreign policy, and he did it by raising the bar of
Armenia's claims.