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news.az, Azerbaijan
July 30 2011
Electoral processes in Russia will stall mediation in Karabakh conflict solution
Sat 30 July 2011 06:33 GMT | 2:33 Local Time
News.Az interviews Neil MacFarlane, Lester B. Pearson Professor of
International Relations, Oxford University.
What are your comments on Armenian president's will for young
Armenians to "return ancestral Armenian lands" in the present-day
Turkey after Sargsyan's generation has allegedly resolved Karabakh
issue?
I suppose that this is a middle way in answering the question he was
asked. For domestic political and Diasporic reasons, he could not say
that western Armenia (sic) was an irrelevant dream. For international
political reasons, he could not say he was pursuing the issue. The
next generation means that the issue is not on the table for this
government. [In general, my generation has a habit of kicking
difficult issues into the next generation's future. think about the
debt question.] And by the way, Armenia is not the only country that
harbours vague aspirations for reunification with territories that
many think are theirs.
This statement has caused strong reaction from the Turkish leadership.
Erdogan has said Sargsyan should apologize for his words. Is it
realistic?
No. Maybe Mr. Erdogan believes that, and it's what he has to say
anyway. But nothing major will come of it.
But is obvious that Sargsyan's remarks will do no good to the
Turkey-Armenia normalization process which is already frozen.
Yes. It will strengthen domestic opposition to the process in Turkey.
But I don't think anybody takes the process too seriously at the
moment anyway.
What impact Armenian leader's statement will have on the process of
normalization of Armenia's ties with neighbors in general?
These prospects were poor anyway. I don't think this makes much difference.
Does Armenian president's rhetoric mean that Azerbaijan has no other
way to regain Karabakh but a new war?
No. He said this was a matter for the future, not now. Everybody who
matters knows this is not has no practical implications.
Anyway, Russia is to set to continue mediation in the Karabakh
conflict settlement. Do you believe this mission will be success?
It is unlikely. The Kazan meeting reminded me of the Key West meeting.
Nothing much seems to have changed. The obstacles remain what they
were then. I bet that the electoral processes in Russia will stall
their mediation. If Mr. Putin ends up as the next president, I bet
that Karabakh will have less priority in Russian diplomacy.
What is the best international mechanism to finally establish peace
and stability in South Caucasus? Format of the UN and especially the
OSCE, with its principle of consensus decision-making, is inefficient,
as it can be seen.
I think it is a mistake to rely on international mechanisms. The last
twenty years suggest that the keys to ensuring peace lie in the
region, not outside it. International actors can facilitate (and of
course they can obstruct), but they can't and won't "produce" peace.
F.H.
News.Az
From: Baghdasarian
July 30 2011
Electoral processes in Russia will stall mediation in Karabakh conflict solution
Sat 30 July 2011 06:33 GMT | 2:33 Local Time
News.Az interviews Neil MacFarlane, Lester B. Pearson Professor of
International Relations, Oxford University.
What are your comments on Armenian president's will for young
Armenians to "return ancestral Armenian lands" in the present-day
Turkey after Sargsyan's generation has allegedly resolved Karabakh
issue?
I suppose that this is a middle way in answering the question he was
asked. For domestic political and Diasporic reasons, he could not say
that western Armenia (sic) was an irrelevant dream. For international
political reasons, he could not say he was pursuing the issue. The
next generation means that the issue is not on the table for this
government. [In general, my generation has a habit of kicking
difficult issues into the next generation's future. think about the
debt question.] And by the way, Armenia is not the only country that
harbours vague aspirations for reunification with territories that
many think are theirs.
This statement has caused strong reaction from the Turkish leadership.
Erdogan has said Sargsyan should apologize for his words. Is it
realistic?
No. Maybe Mr. Erdogan believes that, and it's what he has to say
anyway. But nothing major will come of it.
But is obvious that Sargsyan's remarks will do no good to the
Turkey-Armenia normalization process which is already frozen.
Yes. It will strengthen domestic opposition to the process in Turkey.
But I don't think anybody takes the process too seriously at the
moment anyway.
What impact Armenian leader's statement will have on the process of
normalization of Armenia's ties with neighbors in general?
These prospects were poor anyway. I don't think this makes much difference.
Does Armenian president's rhetoric mean that Azerbaijan has no other
way to regain Karabakh but a new war?
No. He said this was a matter for the future, not now. Everybody who
matters knows this is not has no practical implications.
Anyway, Russia is to set to continue mediation in the Karabakh
conflict settlement. Do you believe this mission will be success?
It is unlikely. The Kazan meeting reminded me of the Key West meeting.
Nothing much seems to have changed. The obstacles remain what they
were then. I bet that the electoral processes in Russia will stall
their mediation. If Mr. Putin ends up as the next president, I bet
that Karabakh will have less priority in Russian diplomacy.
What is the best international mechanism to finally establish peace
and stability in South Caucasus? Format of the UN and especially the
OSCE, with its principle of consensus decision-making, is inefficient,
as it can be seen.
I think it is a mistake to rely on international mechanisms. The last
twenty years suggest that the keys to ensuring peace lie in the
region, not outside it. International actors can facilitate (and of
course they can obstruct), but they can't and won't "produce" peace.
F.H.
News.Az
From: Baghdasarian