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  • "The Osce Structure As A Negotiation Ground And Format Needs Serious

    "THE OSCE STRUCTURE AS A NEGOTIATION GROUND AND FORMAT NEEDS SERIOUS MODERNIZATION>>
    Ruzan Ishkhanian

    http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=229:t he-osce-structure-as-a-negotiation-ground-and-format-needs-serious-modernizationr-&catid=1:all&Itemid=1
    Tuesday, 31 May 2011 06:58

    Senior Staff Scientist of the Political and Social Researches Institute
    of the Black Sea-Caspian region, Scientific Associate of the RAS
    Oriental Studies Institute Andrey Areshev also participated in the
    international conference held in Stepanakert and called 'The legal,
    political, and historical bases of the NKR establishment'. In his
    interview to Azat Artsakh newspaper, he touched upon the peculiarities
    of the current stage of the Karabakh conflict peaceful settlement and
    considered them in the context of the geopolitical processes taking
    place in the region.

    - Mr. Areshev, as a political analyst, what are your forecasts on
    the political processes taking place around the Karabakh conflict
    and what do you think about the settlement process?

    - The Karabakh conflict settlement is very complicated. In this regard,
    there are quite different viewpoints and approaches, complicated with
    many factors. First of all, the conflict started in the structure of a
    common state. Some people consider that the conflict started in 1991,
    but this approach is wrong. One should not ignore the nuances related
    to the historical aspects of the conflict.

    In particular, the AzerbaijaniRepublic, which was formed after the
    collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, stated its refusal of the
    succession to Soviet Azerbaijan, in the structure of which Nagorno
    Karabakh had been. So, the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan can be
    noted only under a condition - Azerbaijan must return to the Soviet
    Union. As of the current situation, the Karabakh conflict has left the
    frames of the South Caucasus and has become a subject of attention
    of different world states and forces. oomplicated correlation has
    occurred in the negotiation process: negotiations are held within
    the OSCE and meetings of the Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents are
    held under the mediation of Russia. We realize that Russia plays an
    important role in the negotiation process. On the other hand, it is
    also clear that the situation in the South Caucasus is far from the
    Soviet realities, in particular, from the situation of the 90s. Great
    players, and first of all the USA, entered the region, though not
    always publicly, however, considerably impacting the negotiation
    process. Public impact on the developments has the Russian Federation.

    The existing complicated situation is a direct consequence of the
    lasting tension between the USA and RF.

    - Considering the existing political realities, what solution to the
    issue do you see within the OSCE?

    - The prospect of the conflict settlement in this format seems
    fantastic to me. Similar expectations existed before the conference
    in Astana and we saw the results. The speeches of the Armenian
    and Azerbaijani Presidents run counter to each other. The Russian
    diplomatic sources have repeatedly stated (I also support this
    viewpoint) that the OSCE structure as a negotiation ground and format
    needs serious modernization. In the current conditions, it is quite
    difficult to resolve the issue within the frames. The same concerns
    the European Union, which positions itself as an active player in
    the South Caucasus, but doesn't sufficiently take the realities into
    account. For instance, when Abkhazia was an unrecognized state, foreign
    missions ignored it. Currently, when Abkhazia has become a subject
    of international law after its recognition by the RF and some other
    states, increased interest towards it and aspiration for establishing
    official contacts with it is displayed by the Western and European
    diplomatic missions. It should be realized that, on the one hand,
    the involvement in the world processes gives certain possibilities,
    and on the other hand, it provides some restrictions.

    Especially if a country establishes relations with de jure
    international and de facto Western donor organizations, it must assume
    certain political commitments. In the prospect, it can even restrict
    the possibilities for a political maneuver.

    - Cooperation of European structures with unrecognized states,
    including the NKR, is an obvious fact today. Do you think that Europe
    can play the role of mediator in the conflict settlement?

    - As of Europe's activeness, I'd note the following: there is really
    an institute legitimizing Karabakh's participation in European NGOs
    and this is, surely, very good. However, it should be realized that
    currently, even the EU, as an active player, deals more with its own
    problems, which are more than enough. So, it should be taken into
    account that the Karabakh conflict will be on the periphery of EU's
    attention. Second, the interest towards Karabakh will be considered
    within the interest towards Azerbaijan as a transit territory and
    energy supplier, and these are projects, around which intensive
    lobbying processes are launched in the European Union, First, it is
    the project of NABUCCO. Much was spoken here about the prospects of
    European integration. Meanwhile, a political solution supposing any
    actions will be adopted by the EU, while watching the reaction of
    the USA. The sample of Abkhazia testifies this. On the other hand,
    the adopted solution will have a tendency equating the responsibility
    of the Azerbaijani and Armenian parties. The proposals, which Armenia
    and Karabakh will get from the EU and generally from the Western
    organizations, will have some disagreeable shade.

    - If no political solution is achieved on any level - neither within
    the OSCE nor the EU, and Azerbaijan tries to resume the war, what,
    do you think, will the superpowers' actions be? Resumption of war is
    unfavorable either for the West or Russia you know.

    - You are right. This isn't favorable for anybody. I should also
    note that different forces have quite different impulses. But, what
    I see allows me to state with some optimism that the probability of
    wide-scale military activities is small. Unjustified expectations
    are finally gone.


    From: Baghdasarian
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