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On the Visit of the Iranian President
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics22091.html
Published: 18:30:50 - 04/06/2011
The president of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinejad is arriving in Armenia on
June 6. The Golos Armeni Newspaper has asked Igor Muradyan, political
scientist, to comment on this visit in the context of the political
situation in the region.
Igor Muradyan says the visit of the Iranian President Ahmadinejad
takes place in a time of tensions in both countries, therefore the
analysts and observers tend to relate this visit with internal issues.
In reality, this visit has a specific geopolitical importance.
In the weakening activity of the United States in the South Caucasus,
Turkey and Russia are increasingly displaying intentions to establish
relations that resemble an alliance. At least, along with agreement on
a disclosed policy, Moscow and Ankara have reached some closed
agreements. This has become a special subject of professional
discussion among analysts of the United States and Europe along with
other aspects of the `Turkish subject' which includes the Near East,
as well as the Caucasus and the Balkans.
Earlier Turkey had experienced a serious geopolitical defeat in
Central Asia and the Balkans and is not fighting for influence in the
Near East where the concept of neo-ottomanism focuses. However, Turkey
needs reliable backing in Eurasia, and it can be provided by Russia.
No doubt, Russia and Turkey have agreements on the Caucasus and the
Black Sea, and Turkey understands that only Russia can help `dismiss'
the Armenian cause. The Americans, both politicians and experts, claim
that the United States is committed to responding to the emergence of
real threat in the region, which is under doubt now. At the same time,
the `honeymoon' of Turkey and Iran has failed because neither the West
nor Iran saw it as a strategic mediator between them. Tehran, one of
the three angles of the strategic triangle of Turkey, Russia and Iran,
has appeared in the worst situation. The United States is not rushing
to resist to Turkey's expansion, hoping that it may lead to a clash
between Turkey and the leading countries of the region, therefore the
situation of Iran is not so very favorable. Besides, there are a
number of serious problems with the relations between Iran and Turkey
regarding the Near East, and these controversies are long-term and
strategic. It is the issue of Syria and Iraq, and the Sunni - Shia
opposition in some places. In this situation, as well as considering
the main external threat, the economic, technological and
communication blockade imposed on Iran by the coalition and its
regional partners, Iran cannot be indifferent to the events in the
neighboring region and the growing risks.
Tehran views Armenia as a natural and reliable partner. In addition,
Armenia interests it as a country which has large-scale cooperation
with the West and Russia. With unprecedented rapprochement of Turkey
and Russia, Armenian and Iranian interests ignored by Russia, military
cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia and Iran tend to
face each other and to establish closer relations. As to internal
aspects, Iran is interested in the support of Putin's team in Moscow
and is ready to help neutralize Medvedev. In this, Iran and Armenia
have common interests.
Now when it has become clear that the West, namely the United States
have not bet on Medvedev, and merely expressed their `preference', the
interested states are more determined to support Putin to prevent
Russia from returning to the former hard times. Iran could have been
bolder in expanding the `new' regional policy, namely the shaping of a
new geopolitical situation, had Armenia sent a signal of readiness for
cooperation. It should be understood that the last stage of the
US-Iranian opposition, and these two countries are doomed to
rapprochement, strange though it may seem.
In the result of this, there will be principal changes in the regional
geopolitics. The United States is aware that Iran is a state which
shapes the region but it is not aggressive and is in `defense in
depth', meanwhile Turkey is gradually becoming problem number 1 for
the United States and other countries. A step by step policy also
looks good but it is time for serious geopolitical analysis as a basic
condition of external policy, Igor Muradyan said.
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics22091.html
Published: 18:30:50 - 04/06/2011
The president of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinejad is arriving in Armenia on
June 6. The Golos Armeni Newspaper has asked Igor Muradyan, political
scientist, to comment on this visit in the context of the political
situation in the region.
Igor Muradyan says the visit of the Iranian President Ahmadinejad
takes place in a time of tensions in both countries, therefore the
analysts and observers tend to relate this visit with internal issues.
In reality, this visit has a specific geopolitical importance.
In the weakening activity of the United States in the South Caucasus,
Turkey and Russia are increasingly displaying intentions to establish
relations that resemble an alliance. At least, along with agreement on
a disclosed policy, Moscow and Ankara have reached some closed
agreements. This has become a special subject of professional
discussion among analysts of the United States and Europe along with
other aspects of the `Turkish subject' which includes the Near East,
as well as the Caucasus and the Balkans.
Earlier Turkey had experienced a serious geopolitical defeat in
Central Asia and the Balkans and is not fighting for influence in the
Near East where the concept of neo-ottomanism focuses. However, Turkey
needs reliable backing in Eurasia, and it can be provided by Russia.
No doubt, Russia and Turkey have agreements on the Caucasus and the
Black Sea, and Turkey understands that only Russia can help `dismiss'
the Armenian cause. The Americans, both politicians and experts, claim
that the United States is committed to responding to the emergence of
real threat in the region, which is under doubt now. At the same time,
the `honeymoon' of Turkey and Iran has failed because neither the West
nor Iran saw it as a strategic mediator between them. Tehran, one of
the three angles of the strategic triangle of Turkey, Russia and Iran,
has appeared in the worst situation. The United States is not rushing
to resist to Turkey's expansion, hoping that it may lead to a clash
between Turkey and the leading countries of the region, therefore the
situation of Iran is not so very favorable. Besides, there are a
number of serious problems with the relations between Iran and Turkey
regarding the Near East, and these controversies are long-term and
strategic. It is the issue of Syria and Iraq, and the Sunni - Shia
opposition in some places. In this situation, as well as considering
the main external threat, the economic, technological and
communication blockade imposed on Iran by the coalition and its
regional partners, Iran cannot be indifferent to the events in the
neighboring region and the growing risks.
Tehran views Armenia as a natural and reliable partner. In addition,
Armenia interests it as a country which has large-scale cooperation
with the West and Russia. With unprecedented rapprochement of Turkey
and Russia, Armenian and Iranian interests ignored by Russia, military
cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia and Iran tend to
face each other and to establish closer relations. As to internal
aspects, Iran is interested in the support of Putin's team in Moscow
and is ready to help neutralize Medvedev. In this, Iran and Armenia
have common interests.
Now when it has become clear that the West, namely the United States
have not bet on Medvedev, and merely expressed their `preference', the
interested states are more determined to support Putin to prevent
Russia from returning to the former hard times. Iran could have been
bolder in expanding the `new' regional policy, namely the shaping of a
new geopolitical situation, had Armenia sent a signal of readiness for
cooperation. It should be understood that the last stage of the
US-Iranian opposition, and these two countries are doomed to
rapprochement, strange though it may seem.
In the result of this, there will be principal changes in the regional
geopolitics. The United States is aware that Iran is a state which
shapes the region but it is not aggressive and is in `defense in
depth', meanwhile Turkey is gradually becoming problem number 1 for
the United States and other countries. A step by step policy also
looks good but it is time for serious geopolitical analysis as a basic
condition of external policy, Igor Muradyan said.