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ARIEL COHEN: ARMENIA, BY BEING INTRANSIGENT IN TALKS, MAY LOSE UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY
Trend News Agency
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News
June 6, 2011 Monday
Baku, Azerbaijan
June 06--JUNE 6 / , Azerbaijan, Baku -- Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov wrapped up a successful visit to Washington, Ariel
Cohen, a prominent Washington expert on the Eurasia and the Caucasus,
believes. Cohen is a Member of TREND Expert Council and the head of
Eurasian studies at the Heritage Foundation.
"Mammadyarov met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is
deeply involved in prodding the two sides, Armenia and Azerbaijan, to
come up with basic principles for an agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue settlement," Cohen told Trend.
The Minister has built excellent relations with foreign ministers of
the two key powers involved in the Minsk Group, Russia and the United
States, as well as with EU officials, Cohen added.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group -- Russia, France, and the U.S. --
are currently holding the peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
Cohen said Hillary Clinton understands that Armenia may lose a
chance to come to a settlement, similar to how Yasir Arafat of the
Palestinian Liberation Organization, lost a chance for a deal with
Israel in 2000, called the Camp David II, a deal which he later
regretted he did not conclude.
"Hillary was at the side of her husband, then-President Bill Clinton,
who tried in the last days of his presidency to negotiate the deal,
and Israel was willing to give Arafat over 90 percent of what
he demanded. Similarly, the Armenian side, by being intransigent
and trying to go for a 100 percent of demands, may lose a unique
opportunity," he said.
At the 9th trilateral summit in Kazan on June 25, Presidents Ilham
Aliyev, Dmitry Medvedev, and Serzh Sargsyan, may attempt to come to
an agreement on basic principles, and Foreign Minister Mammadyarov's
visit had to do with the effort by Azerbaijan to keep the United
States abreast of the development, Cohen said.
However, the expert believes that Russia is currently in the lead
with regards to the effort to play the intermediary between the two
sides as Mr. Medvedev went out of his way to build trust with his
Armenian and Azeri counterparts.
"This is despite the fact that Russia is effectively a national
security patron of Armenia, having signed a long term agreement to keep
its forces at the Gyumri base until 2044, guarding its borders, and
supplying it with large amounts of cheap and sophisticated weapons,"
Cohen said.
The agreement was signed between Russia and Armenia, and renews
Moscow's lease on the base for 24 years. The agreement was undersigned
by the Armenian and Russian defense ministers.
Russia's 102nd Military Base has been accommodated in northern Armenia
since 1995. The base operates in the framework of the CIS United Air
Defense System. It is managed by the Russian troops in Transcaucasia --
Russia's North Caucasian Military District.
Trend News Agency
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News
June 6, 2011 Monday
Baku, Azerbaijan
June 06--JUNE 6 / , Azerbaijan, Baku -- Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov wrapped up a successful visit to Washington, Ariel
Cohen, a prominent Washington expert on the Eurasia and the Caucasus,
believes. Cohen is a Member of TREND Expert Council and the head of
Eurasian studies at the Heritage Foundation.
"Mammadyarov met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is
deeply involved in prodding the two sides, Armenia and Azerbaijan, to
come up with basic principles for an agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue settlement," Cohen told Trend.
The Minister has built excellent relations with foreign ministers of
the two key powers involved in the Minsk Group, Russia and the United
States, as well as with EU officials, Cohen added.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group -- Russia, France, and the U.S. --
are currently holding the peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
Cohen said Hillary Clinton understands that Armenia may lose a
chance to come to a settlement, similar to how Yasir Arafat of the
Palestinian Liberation Organization, lost a chance for a deal with
Israel in 2000, called the Camp David II, a deal which he later
regretted he did not conclude.
"Hillary was at the side of her husband, then-President Bill Clinton,
who tried in the last days of his presidency to negotiate the deal,
and Israel was willing to give Arafat over 90 percent of what
he demanded. Similarly, the Armenian side, by being intransigent
and trying to go for a 100 percent of demands, may lose a unique
opportunity," he said.
At the 9th trilateral summit in Kazan on June 25, Presidents Ilham
Aliyev, Dmitry Medvedev, and Serzh Sargsyan, may attempt to come to
an agreement on basic principles, and Foreign Minister Mammadyarov's
visit had to do with the effort by Azerbaijan to keep the United
States abreast of the development, Cohen said.
However, the expert believes that Russia is currently in the lead
with regards to the effort to play the intermediary between the two
sides as Mr. Medvedev went out of his way to build trust with his
Armenian and Azeri counterparts.
"This is despite the fact that Russia is effectively a national
security patron of Armenia, having signed a long term agreement to keep
its forces at the Gyumri base until 2044, guarding its borders, and
supplying it with large amounts of cheap and sophisticated weapons,"
Cohen said.
The agreement was signed between Russia and Armenia, and renews
Moscow's lease on the base for 24 years. The agreement was undersigned
by the Armenian and Russian defense ministers.
Russia's 102nd Military Base has been accommodated in northern Armenia
since 1995. The base operates in the framework of the CIS United Air
Defense System. It is managed by the Russian troops in Transcaucasia --
Russia's North Caucasian Military District.