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BAKU: Armenia To Be Crushed In Case Of No Progress On Karabakh

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  • BAKU: Armenia To Be Crushed In Case Of No Progress On Karabakh

    ARMENIA TO BE CRUSHED IN CASE OF NO PROGRESS ON KARABAKH

    news.az
    June 15 2011
    Azerbaijan

    News.Az interviews Rasim Musabayov, MP and political scientist.
    What risks do the basic principles of Karabakh settlement carry in
    themselves for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, given that
    the envision signing of a document by the presidents of Azerbaijan
    and Armenia during their visit to Kazan in late June?

    Basic principles meet the interests of Azerbaijan. I think these
    principles also meet the interests of Armenia and the overall
    development of the region. The moments like liberation of a part of
    occupied Azerbaijani lands, deployment of international peacekeeping
    contingent between the conflict parties, conduction of a referendum
    to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh, operaning of communication
    lines, envisioned in the basic principles, are the components of the
    single peace agreement. All the same, I have to note that it all cannot
    be achieved if the Armenian occupational troops do not withdraw from
    the Azerbaijani lands.

    Will all components of basic principles of Karabakh settlement
    become real?

    Certainly, implementation of each of the indicated components depends
    on whether the conflict will be settled peacefully or through war. The
    main points is whether Armenia, with its impoverished population of
    2-2.5m people begging for aid and transfers from diaspora through
    haunting the doorways of international organizations and the states
    will be compliant in fulfilling these components. On the other
    hand, there is an example of Azerbaijan that always complies with
    its commitments. However, it should be taken into account that the
    economy and the population of Azerbaijan overtop the Armenian by seven
    and three times respectively. For this reason, if the problem is not
    settled peacefully, Armenia~Rs defeat will be just a matter of time.

    How can a referendum to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh affect
    Azerbaijan?

    If the referendum will fix the will about the status of Karabakh, this
    expression of a will must be equal to the status of the Nakhchivan
    Autonomous Republic. The status of Nagorno Karabakh cannot be defined
    only by the Armenian population. Karabakh also had the Azerbaijani
    population that flee their homes. They have the same rights with the
    Armenian community of Karabakh. Therefore, if someone is trying to
    interpret this issue unilaterally, that is as a mechanism which can
    cause Karabakh secession from Azerbaijan, they are mistaken, since
    it will never be so.

    Both Azerbaijani and Armenian parties, and a number of countries in
    the region are concerned over the issue of a peacekeeping contingent
    that might be deployed in the Karabakh conflict area. Which form of
    such a peacekeeping contingent would be fitting for both sides?

    I suppose these issues are being negotiated. It has definite
    restrictions, according to which the peacekeeping contingent cannot
    include the militaries of the Minsk Group co-chairing countries,
    as well as the countries neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia. The
    deployment of the militaries of one of these countries into the
    peacekeeping conflict would create clashes between the states.

    In fact, the future peacekeeping contingent may include militaries
    from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, as well as Finland,
    Sweden and Austria. In this case, we do not mean the peacekeeping
    contingent of 10,000-20,000 people. Peacekeepers in Karabakh will
    mostly do the observation, since when conflict parties show goodwill,
    they can preserve peace with even a limited number of peacekeepers.

    Are there chances to sign any document on basic principles of Karabakh
    settlement at the Kazan meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and
    Armenia and which issues can be reflected in this document?

    As far as I know, the protocol by which the parties will announce that
    they accept Madrid principles, will allow to start works to prepare the
    framework peace agreement. Meanwhile, the co-chairing states will be
    the guarantors, given that the Madrid principles will likely not be
    published. This formula will likely be applied to avoid resistance
    inside Azerbaijan and Armenia. Additionally, I believe that the
    document will fix moments and record measures to strengthen ceasefire
    regime. It may also reflect the issues of reducing military rhetoric,
    humanitarian issues and measures raising mutual trust among parties.
    Such a protocol is likely to be signed in Kazan. As the protocol will
    not directly fix all moments of Madrid principles, this document has
    a chance to be adopted in Kazan.

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