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EXPERTS IN YEREVAN: NO DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENTS IN RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA LIKELY IN POST-ELECTION TURKEY
By Gayane Lazarian
ArmeniaNow
15.06.11 | 10:15
Most experts in Armenia believe Turkey's parliamentary elections that
were held last Sunday will hardly open a new page in Armenian-Turkish
relations.
They say Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which
has been led by current Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to a
landslide victory, will hardly introduce any major changes in terms
of Ankara's relations with Yerevan and Baku.
Enlarge Photo Ruben Melkonyan
Enlarge Photo Richard Giragosian
Turkologist Artak Shakaryan says: "Azerbaijan will remain a priority
direction for Turkey. They will try to make some steps towards progress
in relations with Armenia, but at the same time will be careful not
to harm relations with Azerbaijan or hit Azerbaijan's interests."
Another expert Ruben Melkonyan also expects no essential changes in
Armenian-Turkish relations. According to him, in his foreign policy
Erdogan will continue to make "empty statements", creating an illusion
that he wants relations with Armenia improved, while inside Turkey
he will continue his "unconcealed anti-Armenian policies".
While Erdogan's political party managed to get nearly 50 percent of
the vote at the June 12 elections, it still represents fewer mandates
than it held previously. Shakaryan says that with the representation
of the Nationalist Movement Party and Kurdish MPs in the parliament
as well as the improvement of the positions of the Kemalist Republican
People's Party (CHP), the Turkish parliament will be more balanced.
"Today Erdogan has 326 parliamentary seats [in the 550-member
body], which is not enough to change the Constitution or have the
Armenian-Turkish protocols ratified. For this, he will now have to
negotiate with Kurds, nationalists, the CHP in order to secure at
least 367 votes," he says.
Still, Shakaryan thinks that after the latest Turkish elections
Europe gets a more balanced Turkey that does not look like going the
Islamist way.
Thirty-five Kurds managed to get into the Grand National Assembly
of Turkey by the vote from single-mandate constituencies, which
is largely viewed as progress given that in the past even fielding
Kurdish candidates involved serious difficulties. Also, 74 women
candidates have made it to the legislature.
Melkonyan also views such a composition of the Turkish parliament as
a step closer to Europe.
"Today's Turkey has undergone certain changes. The military do not
have the power that they formerly had, and the society has fairly
grasped the ruling party's model -- moderate Islam. So, I think, from
the viewpoint of democracy these elections are quite normal," he says.
Meanwhile, Regional Studies Center director Richard Giragosian thinks
that the most important thing about the latest elections in Turkey
is that the Armenian and Karabakh issues were not discussed during
the election campaign, which, he says, means these issues are not
priorities for Turkey.
"For Armenia these elections mean three major things. First, the
[Armenian-Turkish] protocols and related processes, which have been
suspended and won't get unfrozen. Secondly, after these elections the
Turkish prime minister will make his first foreign trip to Azerbaijan.
And the third circumstance is that new figures will appear in
Turkish-Armenian relations," the analyst says.
According to Giragosian, changes are possible in the Turkish Cabinet,
which means that the Armenian side will have to deal with some new
people and in this regard Armenia already appears from stronger
positions.
"New people in the Turkish Cabinet who are not well aware of the
Armenia-Turkey relations will start dealing with Armenia, which means
that the Armenian-Turkish protocols process that is now suspended
will see new developments and manifestations," the analyst says.
By Gayane Lazarian
ArmeniaNow
15.06.11 | 10:15
Most experts in Armenia believe Turkey's parliamentary elections that
were held last Sunday will hardly open a new page in Armenian-Turkish
relations.
They say Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which
has been led by current Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to a
landslide victory, will hardly introduce any major changes in terms
of Ankara's relations with Yerevan and Baku.
Enlarge Photo Ruben Melkonyan
Enlarge Photo Richard Giragosian
Turkologist Artak Shakaryan says: "Azerbaijan will remain a priority
direction for Turkey. They will try to make some steps towards progress
in relations with Armenia, but at the same time will be careful not
to harm relations with Azerbaijan or hit Azerbaijan's interests."
Another expert Ruben Melkonyan also expects no essential changes in
Armenian-Turkish relations. According to him, in his foreign policy
Erdogan will continue to make "empty statements", creating an illusion
that he wants relations with Armenia improved, while inside Turkey
he will continue his "unconcealed anti-Armenian policies".
While Erdogan's political party managed to get nearly 50 percent of
the vote at the June 12 elections, it still represents fewer mandates
than it held previously. Shakaryan says that with the representation
of the Nationalist Movement Party and Kurdish MPs in the parliament
as well as the improvement of the positions of the Kemalist Republican
People's Party (CHP), the Turkish parliament will be more balanced.
"Today Erdogan has 326 parliamentary seats [in the 550-member
body], which is not enough to change the Constitution or have the
Armenian-Turkish protocols ratified. For this, he will now have to
negotiate with Kurds, nationalists, the CHP in order to secure at
least 367 votes," he says.
Still, Shakaryan thinks that after the latest Turkish elections
Europe gets a more balanced Turkey that does not look like going the
Islamist way.
Thirty-five Kurds managed to get into the Grand National Assembly
of Turkey by the vote from single-mandate constituencies, which
is largely viewed as progress given that in the past even fielding
Kurdish candidates involved serious difficulties. Also, 74 women
candidates have made it to the legislature.
Melkonyan also views such a composition of the Turkish parliament as
a step closer to Europe.
"Today's Turkey has undergone certain changes. The military do not
have the power that they formerly had, and the society has fairly
grasped the ruling party's model -- moderate Islam. So, I think, from
the viewpoint of democracy these elections are quite normal," he says.
Meanwhile, Regional Studies Center director Richard Giragosian thinks
that the most important thing about the latest elections in Turkey
is that the Armenian and Karabakh issues were not discussed during
the election campaign, which, he says, means these issues are not
priorities for Turkey.
"For Armenia these elections mean three major things. First, the
[Armenian-Turkish] protocols and related processes, which have been
suspended and won't get unfrozen. Secondly, after these elections the
Turkish prime minister will make his first foreign trip to Azerbaijan.
And the third circumstance is that new figures will appear in
Turkish-Armenian relations," the analyst says.
According to Giragosian, changes are possible in the Turkish Cabinet,
which means that the Armenian side will have to deal with some new
people and in this regard Armenia already appears from stronger
positions.
"New people in the Turkish Cabinet who are not well aware of the
Armenia-Turkey relations will start dealing with Armenia, which means
that the Armenian-Turkish protocols process that is now suspended
will see new developments and manifestations," the analyst says.