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STAKES HIGH AS MEDVEDEV SEEKS KARABAKH DEAL
By Nikolaus von Twickel
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/stakes-high-as-medvedev-seeks-karabakh-deal/439409.html
23 June 2011
The stakes are higher than ever before when President Dmitry Medvedev
hosts talks about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the presidents
of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Kazan on Friday.
Judging from a recent war of words in the South Caucasus, the risk
that a smoldering dispute over the Armenian enclave on Azeri territory
will erupt into open hostilities has risen to new heights.
Peace talks mediated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe, led by Russia, France and the United States in the
so-called Minsk Group, have met little success since 1994, when
Armenian separatists secured much of Nagorno-Karabakh and some
surrounding territory. The conflict killed more than 30,000 people
and displaced more than 1 million.
The Foreign Ministry said Thursday that it hoped the Kazan talks would
provide a breakthrough. "This meeting will play a landmark role in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," the ministry said in a statement.
Clashes have worsened since 2008 around the mountainous enclave,
and Baku, buoyed by surging oil profits - much of which has spent
modernizing its armed forces - has recently stepped up its rhetoric.
Deputy Azeri Prime Minister Ali Gasanov warned earlier this week
that if "Armenia continues to play games, Azerbaijan will free its
territories by force," the news site Trend.az reported.
Baku is planning to hold a military parade on Sunday to "show the
whole world the might of its army," Gasanov said.
Azeri officials have also threatened to shoot down any planes that
try to land at the newly reconstructed airport in Nagorno-Karabakh's
capital, Stepanakert. The airport had been closed since 1992.
A growing number of people in Baku believe that the permanent loss of
Nagorno-Karabakh can only be averted by retaking the region through
military force, analysts said.
"While each side's fundamental positions have not changed, the balance
of strength has. Azerbaijan has become stronger, while Armenia
is lagging behind," said Svante Cornell, director of the Central
Asia-Caucasus Institute in Stockholm.
Despite the difficult circumstances, Medvedev has committed himself
to getting Presidents Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan to sign a "basic principles" agreement.
The agreement, forged by Russia, France and the United States
in discussions over the past four years, stipulates that
Nagorno-Karabakh's status will be determined in a referendum, that
people who fled during the early 1990s hostilities will be allowed to
return and that an international peacekeeping force will be deployed.
Both sides have not moved an inch in the past, with Azerbaijan
insisting that Nagorno-Karabakh remain part of its territory, albeit
with broad autonomy, while Armenia says the area must never return
to Baku's control.
To make the atmosphere for Friday's talks as rewarding as possible,
the Kremlin has moved its annual presidential horserace from Moscow
to Kazan. If all goes well, the three leaders will join Tatarstan
President Rustam Minnikhanov at the Kazan hippodrome on Friday night
to watch a total of nine races, according to the hippodrome's web site.
President Aliyev thanked the European Union for its support of the
OSCE Minsk Group during a visit to Brussels on Thursday.
"We want a solution to the conflict to be found as soon as possible
that will allow hundreds of thousands of Azeris to return home
after our lands are liberated from occupation," he said at a news
conference alongside EU President Herman van Rompuy, Azerbaijan's
APA news agency reported.
President Sargsyan also was shoring up EU support this week, telling
the Council of Europe on Wednesday: "I am going to Kazan in high
spirits and in anticipation of a constructive dialogue," Armenian
news reports said.
Analysts said the reality is that no side wants to let the situation
get out of hand.
"Nobody is interested in a war, not Moscow, not the West, not Armenia
nor Azerbaijan," said Alexander Krylov, a Caucasus expert at the
Institute of the World Economy and International Relations.
Krylov said that while Azerbaijan has built up its military forces,
it faces an incalculable risk in deploying them because Russia
would almost certainly support Armenia. Moscow and Yerevan are allied
in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a post-Soviet security
alliance, and Russia has a large military base in the Armenian town
of Gyumri.
Azerbaijan also could not expect any foreign support, not even from
Turkey, which has been the country's closest ally in the past and
sided with Baku during the Nagorno-Karabakh hostilities in 1993.
Turkey wants stability in the region, and this is also Russia's
interest, Krylov said, pointing out that Moscow faces enough trouble
in its restive North Caucasus.
The United States and Europe also have vested economic interests in
the energy-rich region. Washington, Brussels and Ankara have recently
stepped up support for the Nabucco pipeline, which is supposed to pump
Caspian gas, mainly from Azerbaijan, to Europe by 2017 by bypassing
Russia.
The biggest hindrance for progress might be that Baku and Yerevan
both expect Russia to exert pressure on the other side, Krylov said.
But paradoxically, a breakthrough at Friday's talks might just as
well pose new dangers because any rapprochement is likely to be highly
unpopular in both countries.
"Peace talks can be destabilizing because they are being opposed all
across the political spectrum," Cornell said.
Under these circumstances, some are pinning their hopes on a completely
new force in this long-standing conflict - music.
Despite the angry rhetoric emitting from Baku, anyone harboring any
plans for war has been forced to postpone them after Azerbaijan won
the Eurovision Song Contest in May, said Zurab Kananchev, an Azerbaijan
expert at the Academy of Sciences' Oriental Institute. Baku will now
host the pan-European television fest next year, and this could well
influence the talks in Kazan, he said.
"The victory is a huge collateral for peace," Kananchev said. "500
million TV viewers and tens of thousands of visiting fans - basically
all of Europe - will be coming to Baku."
Some Armenians are not so convinced.
"Maybe this event has some significance for the domestic situation in
Azerbaijan, but it would be naive to think that it will make them stop
the blackmail over Karabakh," Manvel Sargsyan, research director of
the Armenian Center for National and International Studies in Yerevan,
said in e-mailed comments.
By Nikolaus von Twickel
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/stakes-high-as-medvedev-seeks-karabakh-deal/439409.html
23 June 2011
The stakes are higher than ever before when President Dmitry Medvedev
hosts talks about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the presidents
of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Kazan on Friday.
Judging from a recent war of words in the South Caucasus, the risk
that a smoldering dispute over the Armenian enclave on Azeri territory
will erupt into open hostilities has risen to new heights.
Peace talks mediated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe, led by Russia, France and the United States in the
so-called Minsk Group, have met little success since 1994, when
Armenian separatists secured much of Nagorno-Karabakh and some
surrounding territory. The conflict killed more than 30,000 people
and displaced more than 1 million.
The Foreign Ministry said Thursday that it hoped the Kazan talks would
provide a breakthrough. "This meeting will play a landmark role in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," the ministry said in a statement.
Clashes have worsened since 2008 around the mountainous enclave,
and Baku, buoyed by surging oil profits - much of which has spent
modernizing its armed forces - has recently stepped up its rhetoric.
Deputy Azeri Prime Minister Ali Gasanov warned earlier this week
that if "Armenia continues to play games, Azerbaijan will free its
territories by force," the news site Trend.az reported.
Baku is planning to hold a military parade on Sunday to "show the
whole world the might of its army," Gasanov said.
Azeri officials have also threatened to shoot down any planes that
try to land at the newly reconstructed airport in Nagorno-Karabakh's
capital, Stepanakert. The airport had been closed since 1992.
A growing number of people in Baku believe that the permanent loss of
Nagorno-Karabakh can only be averted by retaking the region through
military force, analysts said.
"While each side's fundamental positions have not changed, the balance
of strength has. Azerbaijan has become stronger, while Armenia
is lagging behind," said Svante Cornell, director of the Central
Asia-Caucasus Institute in Stockholm.
Despite the difficult circumstances, Medvedev has committed himself
to getting Presidents Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan to sign a "basic principles" agreement.
The agreement, forged by Russia, France and the United States
in discussions over the past four years, stipulates that
Nagorno-Karabakh's status will be determined in a referendum, that
people who fled during the early 1990s hostilities will be allowed to
return and that an international peacekeeping force will be deployed.
Both sides have not moved an inch in the past, with Azerbaijan
insisting that Nagorno-Karabakh remain part of its territory, albeit
with broad autonomy, while Armenia says the area must never return
to Baku's control.
To make the atmosphere for Friday's talks as rewarding as possible,
the Kremlin has moved its annual presidential horserace from Moscow
to Kazan. If all goes well, the three leaders will join Tatarstan
President Rustam Minnikhanov at the Kazan hippodrome on Friday night
to watch a total of nine races, according to the hippodrome's web site.
President Aliyev thanked the European Union for its support of the
OSCE Minsk Group during a visit to Brussels on Thursday.
"We want a solution to the conflict to be found as soon as possible
that will allow hundreds of thousands of Azeris to return home
after our lands are liberated from occupation," he said at a news
conference alongside EU President Herman van Rompuy, Azerbaijan's
APA news agency reported.
President Sargsyan also was shoring up EU support this week, telling
the Council of Europe on Wednesday: "I am going to Kazan in high
spirits and in anticipation of a constructive dialogue," Armenian
news reports said.
Analysts said the reality is that no side wants to let the situation
get out of hand.
"Nobody is interested in a war, not Moscow, not the West, not Armenia
nor Azerbaijan," said Alexander Krylov, a Caucasus expert at the
Institute of the World Economy and International Relations.
Krylov said that while Azerbaijan has built up its military forces,
it faces an incalculable risk in deploying them because Russia
would almost certainly support Armenia. Moscow and Yerevan are allied
in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a post-Soviet security
alliance, and Russia has a large military base in the Armenian town
of Gyumri.
Azerbaijan also could not expect any foreign support, not even from
Turkey, which has been the country's closest ally in the past and
sided with Baku during the Nagorno-Karabakh hostilities in 1993.
Turkey wants stability in the region, and this is also Russia's
interest, Krylov said, pointing out that Moscow faces enough trouble
in its restive North Caucasus.
The United States and Europe also have vested economic interests in
the energy-rich region. Washington, Brussels and Ankara have recently
stepped up support for the Nabucco pipeline, which is supposed to pump
Caspian gas, mainly from Azerbaijan, to Europe by 2017 by bypassing
Russia.
The biggest hindrance for progress might be that Baku and Yerevan
both expect Russia to exert pressure on the other side, Krylov said.
But paradoxically, a breakthrough at Friday's talks might just as
well pose new dangers because any rapprochement is likely to be highly
unpopular in both countries.
"Peace talks can be destabilizing because they are being opposed all
across the political spectrum," Cornell said.
Under these circumstances, some are pinning their hopes on a completely
new force in this long-standing conflict - music.
Despite the angry rhetoric emitting from Baku, anyone harboring any
plans for war has been forced to postpone them after Azerbaijan won
the Eurovision Song Contest in May, said Zurab Kananchev, an Azerbaijan
expert at the Academy of Sciences' Oriental Institute. Baku will now
host the pan-European television fest next year, and this could well
influence the talks in Kazan, he said.
"The victory is a huge collateral for peace," Kananchev said. "500
million TV viewers and tens of thousands of visiting fans - basically
all of Europe - will be coming to Baku."
Some Armenians are not so convinced.
"Maybe this event has some significance for the domestic situation in
Azerbaijan, but it would be naive to think that it will make them stop
the blackmail over Karabakh," Manvel Sargsyan, research director of
the Armenian Center for National and International Studies in Yerevan,
said in e-mailed comments.