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THE SECOND MOVE IN THE 2011 GENOCIDE OBFUSCATION GAMBIT?
David Davidian
Noyan Tapan
www.nt.am
03.03.2011
(Noyan Tapan - 03.03.2011) At about this time every year the Turkish
government engages in political antics, the purpose of which is to
counter any incremental success Armenians have achieved in their
quest for recognition of the Turkish genocide of 1.5 million Armenians.
During April of 1915, under the guise of WWI, the Turkish government
condemned the entire Armenian citizenry under its jurisdiction, and
some of the neighboring lands, to extermination. The crime and denial
of genocide isn't a game, but international relations is a contest.
In past years, major US defense contractors have presured members
of Congress urging them not to undertake any vote for genocide
recognition, so as not to "offend" their Turkish customers. Also,
past US Secretaries of State either individually or collectively,
have pleaded a similar story to members of Congress, recommending
that any recognition of genocide would anger the Turks.
The US Congress regularly reaffirmed or otherwise memorializes
historical events including the near destruction of Native Americas
and the Nazi Holocaust of European Jews. Official US recognition,
and to a similar extent an Israeli recognition, of the genocide of
the Armenians would ease the way for Armenian reparations. Turkey is
becoming more confident of its role globally and in the region. It
endeavors to assert influence by representing itself as a big brother
to regional Muslim states. Turkey finds itself in a position from which
it can simultaneously divert the attention of the Armenian diaspora
while providing face-saving excuses vis-a-vis engagement with Armenia
for major powers to ignore Armenian demands for genocide recognition.
Since around 2003, Armenia and Turkey have been in deliberations with
the goal of establishing diplomatic relations and opening their common
border. This border was unilaterally shut by Turkey in 1993 as Armenian
forces were succeeding in securing the region of Nagorno-Karabakh
from Azerbaijani rule."The Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic
Relations Between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey"
was officially signed and simultaneously announced in Berne, Yerevan,
and Ankara on Aug. 31, 2009. On the heals of this announcement, Turkey
attached preconditions to any Turkish ratification. As a result, this
document is all but dead, even though the signed protocol passed legal
approval by Armenia's Constitutional Court. It was rather presumptuous
for Turkey to have set post-facto pre-conditions. This lack of Turkish
resolve allowed the Armenian president, Serge Sargsyan the latitude
to take a tougher stance on the genocide issue. On March 24, 2010,
at the Armenian Genocide memorial in the Syrian desert at Der Zor,
Sargsyan give a hard hitting speech against the policies of the
Turkish government, calling it the last stop on the Armenian death
marches. Sargsyan called Der Zor the Armenian Auschwitz. As Sun Tzu
said, "Opportunities multiply as they are seized."
On February 7, 2011 in an article
published in the Turkish newspaper Sabah
(http://www.sabah.com.tr/Gundem/2011/02/07/yahudi_acilimindan_sonra_ermeni_acilimi)
author Duygu Guvenc wrote that Turkish Minister of State, Egemen
BagıÅ~_, after attending the January 27, 2011 Holocaust Remembrance
Day (first for a Turkish state minister) in Istanbul, was instructed
to subsequently attend Armenian April 24th activities. Apparently
only Sabah reported this, although it was picked up by many Armenian
media outlets. Since Guvenc's article is still on an active web site
and has not been retracted, it appears to be an official trial balloon
looking for any Armenian reaction. Alternatively, it could be Turkey's
first move in the 2011 genocide obfuscation gambit.
It is a challenge to suggest or predict Armenia's reaction to this
Turkish ploy because moves like these are not zero-sum, nor made in
isolation. There is also a lack of information from ongoing diplomatic
efforts, if they even exist, in whatever form. There are costs in
making foreign policy decisions, and similarly, in not making them.
Given the limited information available to us, what might an Armenian
response be?
Turkish general elections are scheduled for this year. According to
polls, the AKP party has been steadily gaining popularity. Currently,
it enjoys a substantial lead over its nationalist contender, the CHP.
AKP party leaders may feel they can take a chance with bolder genocide
obfuscation tactics considering such moves are coming at a time of
transforming events in the region, placing such risky foreign policy
moves out of media limelight in Turkey. This is not the case with
citizens of Armenia or its diaspora, who view Turkish moves differently
than official Yerevan. Turkey knows this and modulates its FP moves
associated with genocide denial, highlighting such nuances.
FP moves are based on extracting the maximum benefit from prevailing
conditions. They are not based on right or wrong, good or bad, but
rather on interests. We know the overarching Turkish interest is
deferring accepting responsibility for the crime of genocide.
Armenia should immediately invite the Turkish President, Abdullah
Gul, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu to attend the April 24th genocide commemoration at
Armenia's Genocide Memorial at Tsitsernakaberd. Turkey should be given
a specific time limit to respond or the invitation is pulled. The
Turkish delegation can join the hundreds of thousands of Armenians
who gather to commemorate the victims of the 1915 genocide. The
Turkish delegation would be accorded the customary VIP protocol at
the Genocide Museum and attend lectures by prominent scholars. If
Turkey was bluffing, Armenia was not. Armenia thus forces Turkey not
to attend a genocide commemoration in some obscure Armenian community
out of shear embarrassment by refusing this invitation.
There are many scenarios that can be played out. Pretend inferiority
and encourage his arrogance," wrote Sun Tzu.
From: A. Papazian
David Davidian
Noyan Tapan
www.nt.am
03.03.2011
(Noyan Tapan - 03.03.2011) At about this time every year the Turkish
government engages in political antics, the purpose of which is to
counter any incremental success Armenians have achieved in their
quest for recognition of the Turkish genocide of 1.5 million Armenians.
During April of 1915, under the guise of WWI, the Turkish government
condemned the entire Armenian citizenry under its jurisdiction, and
some of the neighboring lands, to extermination. The crime and denial
of genocide isn't a game, but international relations is a contest.
In past years, major US defense contractors have presured members
of Congress urging them not to undertake any vote for genocide
recognition, so as not to "offend" their Turkish customers. Also,
past US Secretaries of State either individually or collectively,
have pleaded a similar story to members of Congress, recommending
that any recognition of genocide would anger the Turks.
The US Congress regularly reaffirmed or otherwise memorializes
historical events including the near destruction of Native Americas
and the Nazi Holocaust of European Jews. Official US recognition,
and to a similar extent an Israeli recognition, of the genocide of
the Armenians would ease the way for Armenian reparations. Turkey is
becoming more confident of its role globally and in the region. It
endeavors to assert influence by representing itself as a big brother
to regional Muslim states. Turkey finds itself in a position from which
it can simultaneously divert the attention of the Armenian diaspora
while providing face-saving excuses vis-a-vis engagement with Armenia
for major powers to ignore Armenian demands for genocide recognition.
Since around 2003, Armenia and Turkey have been in deliberations with
the goal of establishing diplomatic relations and opening their common
border. This border was unilaterally shut by Turkey in 1993 as Armenian
forces were succeeding in securing the region of Nagorno-Karabakh
from Azerbaijani rule."The Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic
Relations Between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey"
was officially signed and simultaneously announced in Berne, Yerevan,
and Ankara on Aug. 31, 2009. On the heals of this announcement, Turkey
attached preconditions to any Turkish ratification. As a result, this
document is all but dead, even though the signed protocol passed legal
approval by Armenia's Constitutional Court. It was rather presumptuous
for Turkey to have set post-facto pre-conditions. This lack of Turkish
resolve allowed the Armenian president, Serge Sargsyan the latitude
to take a tougher stance on the genocide issue. On March 24, 2010,
at the Armenian Genocide memorial in the Syrian desert at Der Zor,
Sargsyan give a hard hitting speech against the policies of the
Turkish government, calling it the last stop on the Armenian death
marches. Sargsyan called Der Zor the Armenian Auschwitz. As Sun Tzu
said, "Opportunities multiply as they are seized."
On February 7, 2011 in an article
published in the Turkish newspaper Sabah
(http://www.sabah.com.tr/Gundem/2011/02/07/yahudi_acilimindan_sonra_ermeni_acilimi)
author Duygu Guvenc wrote that Turkish Minister of State, Egemen
BagıÅ~_, after attending the January 27, 2011 Holocaust Remembrance
Day (first for a Turkish state minister) in Istanbul, was instructed
to subsequently attend Armenian April 24th activities. Apparently
only Sabah reported this, although it was picked up by many Armenian
media outlets. Since Guvenc's article is still on an active web site
and has not been retracted, it appears to be an official trial balloon
looking for any Armenian reaction. Alternatively, it could be Turkey's
first move in the 2011 genocide obfuscation gambit.
It is a challenge to suggest or predict Armenia's reaction to this
Turkish ploy because moves like these are not zero-sum, nor made in
isolation. There is also a lack of information from ongoing diplomatic
efforts, if they even exist, in whatever form. There are costs in
making foreign policy decisions, and similarly, in not making them.
Given the limited information available to us, what might an Armenian
response be?
Turkish general elections are scheduled for this year. According to
polls, the AKP party has been steadily gaining popularity. Currently,
it enjoys a substantial lead over its nationalist contender, the CHP.
AKP party leaders may feel they can take a chance with bolder genocide
obfuscation tactics considering such moves are coming at a time of
transforming events in the region, placing such risky foreign policy
moves out of media limelight in Turkey. This is not the case with
citizens of Armenia or its diaspora, who view Turkish moves differently
than official Yerevan. Turkey knows this and modulates its FP moves
associated with genocide denial, highlighting such nuances.
FP moves are based on extracting the maximum benefit from prevailing
conditions. They are not based on right or wrong, good or bad, but
rather on interests. We know the overarching Turkish interest is
deferring accepting responsibility for the crime of genocide.
Armenia should immediately invite the Turkish President, Abdullah
Gul, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu to attend the April 24th genocide commemoration at
Armenia's Genocide Memorial at Tsitsernakaberd. Turkey should be given
a specific time limit to respond or the invitation is pulled. The
Turkish delegation can join the hundreds of thousands of Armenians
who gather to commemorate the victims of the 1915 genocide. The
Turkish delegation would be accorded the customary VIP protocol at
the Genocide Museum and attend lectures by prominent scholars. If
Turkey was bluffing, Armenia was not. Armenia thus forces Turkey not
to attend a genocide commemoration in some obscure Armenian community
out of shear embarrassment by refusing this invitation.
There are many scenarios that can be played out. Pretend inferiority
and encourage his arrogance," wrote Sun Tzu.
From: A. Papazian