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JANE'S: AZERBAIJAN ATTACK ON KARABAKH UNLIKELY -- FOR NOW
by Joshua Kucera
EurasiaNet
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63030
March 8 2011
NY
The Bug PitArmeniaAzerbaijanNagorno Karabakh The Armenia-Azerbaijan
military balance is getting a lot of scrutiny these days, and Jane's
Intelligence Review has just published a good reported analysis
(subscription required) by Emil Sanamyan that has a lot of interesting
points. Among them:
-- "Upon closer inspection, Azerbaijan's purported 'military budget'
incorporates not just the paramilitary forces outside the Ministry of
Defence but also state prosecutors and even courts, with an apparent
intention to inflate the overall figure for propaganda effect."
-- "The combined Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh defence army total
is estimated by Jane's to be around 300 T-72s, considerably larger
than the 110 officially declared by Yerevan. Azerbaijan is thought to
maintain around 350 to 400 T-72s... Baku has declared only 217 tanks,
although it it likely that this figure was designed to appear under
the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty ceiling of 220."
-- "[F]or now it is the Azerbaijani UAV capability that provides the
most immediate potential for escalation. Armenian defence officials
have confirmed that Azerbaijan has begun flying its UAVs close to
the Line of Contact that separates the two sides, with several such
flights reported since 2008. In mid-2010, two Armenian Su-25s were
dispatched to try to intercept these UAV flights."
-- "Armenian officials also claim that Armenia has begun to
domestically produce UAVs and that more than a dozen have already
entered service, with the aim of co-ordinating artillery fire. These
have yet to be seen publicly."
But he concluded that, in the short term at least, war was unlikely.
That's because Azerbaijan's ability to strike Armenian targets from a
distance -- either from the air or with artillery -- is still too weak
to overwhelm Armenians' defenses. The Armenian/Karabakh air defense
systems are relatively good (they have S-300s, including possibly
in Karabakh) and Azerbaijan has a fairly small number of ground
attack aircraft (according to Jane's, 19 Su-25s) which would quickly
be depleted by the Armenians' air defense. Azerbaijan's artillery,
which also might be used to take out air defenses, would be vulnerable
to Armenian artillery counterattacks, as the two sides are somewhat
evenly matched on that front. So at this point, Sanamyan says, it's
too risky for Azerbaijan to attack. For now.
From: A. Papazian
by Joshua Kucera
EurasiaNet
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63030
March 8 2011
NY
The Bug PitArmeniaAzerbaijanNagorno Karabakh The Armenia-Azerbaijan
military balance is getting a lot of scrutiny these days, and Jane's
Intelligence Review has just published a good reported analysis
(subscription required) by Emil Sanamyan that has a lot of interesting
points. Among them:
-- "Upon closer inspection, Azerbaijan's purported 'military budget'
incorporates not just the paramilitary forces outside the Ministry of
Defence but also state prosecutors and even courts, with an apparent
intention to inflate the overall figure for propaganda effect."
-- "The combined Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh defence army total
is estimated by Jane's to be around 300 T-72s, considerably larger
than the 110 officially declared by Yerevan. Azerbaijan is thought to
maintain around 350 to 400 T-72s... Baku has declared only 217 tanks,
although it it likely that this figure was designed to appear under
the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty ceiling of 220."
-- "[F]or now it is the Azerbaijani UAV capability that provides the
most immediate potential for escalation. Armenian defence officials
have confirmed that Azerbaijan has begun flying its UAVs close to
the Line of Contact that separates the two sides, with several such
flights reported since 2008. In mid-2010, two Armenian Su-25s were
dispatched to try to intercept these UAV flights."
-- "Armenian officials also claim that Armenia has begun to
domestically produce UAVs and that more than a dozen have already
entered service, with the aim of co-ordinating artillery fire. These
have yet to be seen publicly."
But he concluded that, in the short term at least, war was unlikely.
That's because Azerbaijan's ability to strike Armenian targets from a
distance -- either from the air or with artillery -- is still too weak
to overwhelm Armenians' defenses. The Armenian/Karabakh air defense
systems are relatively good (they have S-300s, including possibly
in Karabakh) and Azerbaijan has a fairly small number of ground
attack aircraft (according to Jane's, 19 Su-25s) which would quickly
be depleted by the Armenians' air defense. Azerbaijan's artillery,
which also might be used to take out air defenses, would be vulnerable
to Armenian artillery counterattacks, as the two sides are somewhat
evenly matched on that front. So at this point, Sanamyan says, it's
too risky for Azerbaijan to attack. For now.
From: A. Papazian