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Is Azerbaijan Ready For Its Own Revolution?

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  • Is Azerbaijan Ready For Its Own Revolution?

    http://www.rferl.org/content/is_azerbaijan_ready_for_its_own_revolution/2334286.html

    March 10, 2011

    Is Azerbaijan Ready For Its Own Revolution?
    by Arife Kazimova, Daisy Sindelar

    Inspired by last month's Egyptian uprising, young activists in
    Azerbaijan are calling for antigovernment demonstrations on March 11
    -- and using Facebook to spread the word.

    Originally planned as a "virtual protest," in which supporters could
    express their solidarity with a simple click of the mouse, the March
    11 movement has since morphed into calls for a flesh-and-blood
    demonstration of growing disenchantment with the country's autocratic
    regime. It is a move that has rattled Baku.

    But it's uncertain what size or shape the March 11 protests will take
    -- or even if they'll take place at all, with organizers being
    intentionally vague about locations. As of March 10, nearly 4,000
    people had used Facebook to signal their intention to mark the day of
    protests. Protest organizers have stressed the peaceful nature of the
    initiative, but have not minced words when it comes to their goal --
    bringing an end to the country's "dictatorial regime."

    The Azerbaijani government does not take such phrases lightly. In the
    past several days, authorities have arrested a number of activists
    tied to the March 11 events and the country's Musavat opposition
    party, which is planning a subsequent day of rallied on March 12.
    (Members of another opposition force, the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan,
    are They forget that Azerbaijani youth will not be fooled by these
    crazy attempts."
    planning yet another protest in the coming days.) They forget that
    Azerbaijani youth will not be fooled by these crazy attempts."

    Among those arrested is Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, the only March 11 organizer
    operating within Azerbaijan. A fellow organizer, France-based
    Azerbaijani activist Elnur Majidli, said the arrest of Hajiyev and
    others shows how anxious the authorities have become about rising
    opposition to the regime of President Ilham Aliyev.

    "If the government detains young men for a minor Facebook page and
    exerts pressure on their families, it means the end for the
    government," Majidli says. "The authorities have admitted as much
    through their actions. The more they detain young people, the more
    they're going to motivate those young people to protest and aggravate
    the situation."

    The New Opposition

    Hajiyev, Majidli, and other organizers of the so-called Great People's
    Day action say they chose March 11 as the day for their protest
    because it marks one month since public demonstrations in Egypt forced
    the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.

    Indeed, the March 11 organizers share the tactics and goals of their
    Egyptian counterparts. All are young, Internet-savvy, and
    Western-educated -- Hajiyev, for one, is a 2009 graduate of Harvard
    University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. As a group, they
    have emerged as a fresh-faced complement -- or alternative -- to the
    Azerbaijan's graying class of political oppositionists, represented by
    parties like Musavat and the Popular Front.

    Hajiyev was detained March 4 in his home city of Ganja, on charges of
    leaving the city limits while under investigation for evading military
    service. But Hajiyev says his one-month detention is tied to his
    Facebook activities, and has complained of being insulted and harassed
    by prison officials.

    In a statement, the U.S. Embassy called on the Azerbaijani government
    to ensure Hajiyev receives due process and proper treatment. The
    rights watchdog Freedom House has called the recent arrests
    "disturbing" and said further crackdowns "will be an indication not of
    the Azeri regime's strength, but rather its weakness."

    The March 11 campaign has sparked efforts from pro-government youth
    groups to discredit activists like Hajiyev and question the loyalties
    of government opponents. But Hajiyev's mother, Solida Movlayeva,
    argues her son is fighting for a better Azerbaijan.

    "Bakhtiyar has been detained for his political views, because of his
    search for justice," Movlayeva says. "He's a patriotic young man who
    loves his country and its people. Otherwise he never would have
    returned after paying to get an education somewhere else."

    Preparing For The Worst

    Many countries have seen a rise in public protests inspired by the
    political turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt. Oil-rich Azerbaijan, which is
    ruled with an iron grip by Aliyev and a tightly knit network of
    allies, has been no exception, with widespread poverty and political
    and religious repression fueling anger among ordinary Azerbaijanis.

    Mindful of the mood, the government has attempted to stave off public
    unrest by trumpeting a new anticorruption drive. But critics have
    shrugged off such campaigns as window-dressing and accuse the
    government of redoubling its pressure on activists and boosting the
    police presence in Baku. (The government's lockdown efforts have been
    so strenuous they've spawned a March 11 joke among young Azerbaijani
    activists: "If they're trying this hard, we'd better show up!")

    The government in recent days has also sought to crack down on a
    number of foreign NGOs operating in Azerbaijan, including the U.S.
    National Democratic Institute, a nonprofit group working with youth
    groups in the country. An NDI employee in Azerbaijan told RFE/RL the
    group's country director received a letter from the Justice Ministry
    requesting their office be closed.

    In a statement published on its website on March 9, the Azerbaijani
    Interior Ministry likewise blamed foreign agents for the rising
    unrest, saying that "radical opposition forces" were attempting to
    "create color revolutions in Azerbaijan."

    "Adventurers are trying to take advantage of the developments in North
    Africa, and are using as their tools a group of youths and some NGOs
    that are directly dependent on foreign donations," the ministry said.
    "But they forget that Azerbaijani youth will not be fooled by these
    crazy attempts."

    The government has even brought out its chief psychiatric expert to
    warn about the consequences of Facebook-style revolt. Speaking to the
    Trend news agency, Garay Geraybeyli advised the country's online
    activists to seek mental help and said, "Those who prefer virtual
    communication have problems communicating in real life. Such people
    have a limited vocabulary. They have problems speaking."

    Geraybeyli's admonition apparently does not extend to the country's
    president, Ilham Aliyev, who recently waded into the world of social
    networking by launching his own Twitter and YouTube pages.

    Written in Prague by Daisy Sindelar based on reporting by Arife Kazimova in Baku




    From: A. Papazian
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