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Global Insight
May 13, 2011
Azeri Forces Kill Armenian Civilian Ahead of International Mediators' Visit
BYLINE: Lilit Gevorgyan
The Armenian Foreign Ministry and the Defence Ministry of the
self-declared republic of Nagorno-Karabakh concurrently issued
statements on 12 May confirming that the Azerbaijani military shot and
killed an ethnic Armenian civilian on 11 May. Arayik Balasanyan was
shot by an Azerbaijani sniper as he was driving his tractor close the
border between the breakaway region and Azerbaijan proper, and died
from his head wounds. The reports of the killing coincided with the
four-day visit to South Caucasus =of the President of the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly
Petros Efthymiou. The OSCE Minsk group led by France, Russia and the
United States is dedicated to finding a peaceful resolution to the
23-year conflict that at its height during 1988-1994 claimed 30,000
lives on both sides. The Armenian Foreign Ministry condemned
Azerbaijan for destabilising the already precarious peace in the
region, adding that this hampers the international mediators' efforts
to find peace. Efthymiou is due to arrive in Azerbaijan today (13 May)
as part of his regional tour, and will spend a longer time in
Azerbaijan in an effort to activate the stalling peace process.
Significance:The shooting follows the recent escalation along the Line
of Contact between the breakaway region and Azerbaijan proper. Thus on
30 April Reuters reported that within 48 hours three Armenian soldiers
had been killed by an Azerbaijani sniper. The destabilisation is not a
mere coincidence with the international mediator's visit to the
region. Azerbaijan has long been frustrated with the OSCE Minsk Group
and wants to move the issue to another forum, an idea opposed by
France, Russia and the US as well as Armenia and the self-declared
republic. The oil- and gas-rich country that suffered a military
defeat at the hands of Armenian separatist forces back in 1994 has
since toughened its stance in the peace talks. Azerbaijan is
determined to restore its territorial integrity at all costs and has
been openly threatening to launch a new war. This is a dangerous and
costly way of resolving the conflict but the South Caucasus' major
energy exporter can afford the military option, at least financially.
Politically, however Azerbaijan's hard-line stance and reluctance to
give at least minimal guarantees against the physical destruction of
the breakaway region's ethnic Armenian population is not winning
support for the Azerbaijani government in the international community.
Nonetheless, this position is well received domestically, something
that the Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is likely to use in the
future at the expense of destabilising the situation in the region.
Meanwhile the OSCE calls to withdraw snipers are not likely to be
heeded; indeed, Azerbaijan has recently launched a sniper training
course for young people. Against this background the Armenian forces
are likely to retaliate and the situation along the Line of Contact is
set to deteriorate in the coming months.
May 13, 2011
Azeri Forces Kill Armenian Civilian Ahead of International Mediators' Visit
BYLINE: Lilit Gevorgyan
The Armenian Foreign Ministry and the Defence Ministry of the
self-declared republic of Nagorno-Karabakh concurrently issued
statements on 12 May confirming that the Azerbaijani military shot and
killed an ethnic Armenian civilian on 11 May. Arayik Balasanyan was
shot by an Azerbaijani sniper as he was driving his tractor close the
border between the breakaway region and Azerbaijan proper, and died
from his head wounds. The reports of the killing coincided with the
four-day visit to South Caucasus =of the President of the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Parliamentary Assembly
Petros Efthymiou. The OSCE Minsk group led by France, Russia and the
United States is dedicated to finding a peaceful resolution to the
23-year conflict that at its height during 1988-1994 claimed 30,000
lives on both sides. The Armenian Foreign Ministry condemned
Azerbaijan for destabilising the already precarious peace in the
region, adding that this hampers the international mediators' efforts
to find peace. Efthymiou is due to arrive in Azerbaijan today (13 May)
as part of his regional tour, and will spend a longer time in
Azerbaijan in an effort to activate the stalling peace process.
Significance:The shooting follows the recent escalation along the Line
of Contact between the breakaway region and Azerbaijan proper. Thus on
30 April Reuters reported that within 48 hours three Armenian soldiers
had been killed by an Azerbaijani sniper. The destabilisation is not a
mere coincidence with the international mediator's visit to the
region. Azerbaijan has long been frustrated with the OSCE Minsk Group
and wants to move the issue to another forum, an idea opposed by
France, Russia and the US as well as Armenia and the self-declared
republic. The oil- and gas-rich country that suffered a military
defeat at the hands of Armenian separatist forces back in 1994 has
since toughened its stance in the peace talks. Azerbaijan is
determined to restore its territorial integrity at all costs and has
been openly threatening to launch a new war. This is a dangerous and
costly way of resolving the conflict but the South Caucasus' major
energy exporter can afford the military option, at least financially.
Politically, however Azerbaijan's hard-line stance and reluctance to
give at least minimal guarantees against the physical destruction of
the breakaway region's ethnic Armenian population is not winning
support for the Azerbaijani government in the international community.
Nonetheless, this position is well received domestically, something
that the Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is likely to use in the
future at the expense of destabilising the situation in the region.
Meanwhile the OSCE calls to withdraw snipers are not likely to be
heeded; indeed, Azerbaijan has recently launched a sniper training
course for young people. Against this background the Armenian forces
are likely to retaliate and the situation along the Line of Contact is
set to deteriorate in the coming months.