Tweet
Foreign Policy Journal
May 14 2011
Is Another Nuclear Accident Waiting to Happen in Armenia?
by Richard Rousseau
May 14, 2011
As the political and radioactive fallout of Japan's Fukushima meltdown
spreads, serious regional concerns over the safety of Armenia's aging
Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant continue to mount. Not only does the
plant lie on a physical fault line, but it is also located in a
politically unstable neighborhood, intersected by ethnic and sectarian
divisions, especially with Azerbaijan and Turkey, the latter two being
at loggerheads with Armenia over political, territorial, and valid
environmental safety issues.
While all the parties have an interest in making sure there are no
problems at Metsamor, the recent Fukushima nuclear disaster has simply
magnified the security and environmental concerns of regional actors,
and this will inevitably have an effect on their political relations,
also.
One only has to look at the history of the Metsamor Nuclear Power
Plant to understand that it is basically an accident waiting to
happen. Following the earthquake in the Armenian city of Spitak in
1988, which measured 6.9 on the Richter scale and killed over 25,000
people,[1] Soviet officials decided to shut down the plant. However, a
highly effective economic blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey in
response to the illegal occupation of the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh
by Armenian troops created conditions which led to the reopening of
the plant seven years later, despite expert advice that it should
remain deactivated.
Landlocked Armenia has few short term alternatives to nuclear power.
The Metsamor reactor provides about 40 percent of Armenia's
electricity. Attempts to replace it have been continually frustrated
and efforts to find alternative energy sources, or install a new
reactor with state-of-the-art controls and backup systems, have so far
proved fruitless. However, something will have to be done because the
clock is ticking. In October 2008, Areg Galstyan, the Armenian Deputy
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, announced that the
construction of a new nuclear power plant is due to start sometime in
2011 and is expected to be commissioned in 2017.[2]
Hakob Sanasaryan, an Armenian chemist and head of the Green Union of
Armenia, claimed in 2003 that the Metsamor did not meet
internationally accepted nuclear safety standards, as it lacks a
containment vessel, whose function is to prevent radioactive release
in the event of an accident.[3] Moreover, the plant is located a mere
75 kilometers from the 1988 earthquake epicenter, an area with a long
history of powerful quakes, and 30 kilometers from the Armenian
capital Yerevan.
Nonetheless, officials in Yerevan insist that Armenia is immune to the
kind of nuclear emergency which has struck Japan, even if the country
is located in a seismically active zone. Ashot Martirosian, head of
Armenia's State Committee on Nuclear Safety Regulation, claims that a
magnitude-8.9 offshore quake, such as the one that has wreaked havoc
on Japan, is extremely unlikely ever to hit Armenia.[4] He also claims
that the cooling system of the nuclear plant at Metsamor is superior
to that of the Fukushima Daiichi facility and that it can withstand an
even more severe earthquake than has been experienced either in Japan
or Armenia in 1988.
The consensus statements by Armenian officials indicate that they have
closed ranks on the nuclear issue. Rafael Arutunian, Deputy Director
of the Institute for Nuclear Energy Security Problems of Armenia,
thinks that Metsamor has shown its capability to withstand serious
earthquakes since 1988 and that any speculation about the threat posed
by Metsamor is merely politicking.[5] However, the Japanese tragedy
has definitely been a wakeup call, he believes. Additional security
measures will now have to be put in place to make the nuclear power
station safe for Armenians as well as for their immediate neighbors.
The Soviet-built nuclear power plant is not considered safe enough by
Western governments either, according to a Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty report.[6] Also, there has been considerable public
controversy - sometimes even hysteria - lately over the use of nuclear
energy and the nuclear industry has a contentious track record. So
much so, for example, that Germany has plans to decommission several
of its plants, even if they are considered as modern and
state-of-the-art. However, the trend for putting safety first is about
to stall in many regions of the world, as political and economic
expediency pushes safety concerns onto the back burner. In that
context, Armenia's neighbors cannot now assume that the once
all-pervading anti-nuclear logic can be used as an unassailable
argument against the Metsamor plant.
The Azerbaijani government and international experts continue to voice
safety concerns over the Metsamor nuclear plant. Azerbaijan wants
solid assurances from Armenia that the plant does not constitute a
danger for any state in the region. Eduard Shevardnadze, former
president of Georgia, has urged his country's authorities to negotiate
with Armenia on the safety of the plant. `Reports about the Armenian
NPP's condition raise serious concerns. The Armenian NPP turned out to
be in the most deplorable condition and there are not any safety
guarantees, what threatens the entire region,' reports PanArmenian.[7]
Up until now, however, it appears that the threat of nuclear disaster
and the damage this potential threat is inflicting to its
international relations are prices the Armenian government considers
worth paying to avoid losing face with their domestic consumers and
international lobby.
Azerbaijan and other regional states' reasonable concerns deserve to
be taken seriously and properly addressed by the Armenian government.
In particular, they need to be reassured that there is an effective
emergency response plan in place; and that needs to be done without
any bias by all the sides as well as other stakeholders. The same
questions which have been thrown up by the Fukushima disaster should
be asked in the case of Metsamor and parallels should be drawn.
Another source of misgivings is the fact that Metsamor has been
operated since 2003 by the Russian Inter RAO UES, owned by Russian
state-run Rosatom Corporation. The contract is valid until 2013.
Azerbaijan and contiguous countries should be particularly concerned
by the `business ethic' of Rosatom. A relic of the Soviet system, it
still operates largely with full autonomy and without oversight since
its activities are not under the scrutiny of any independent
agency.[8] Also, suspicions abounds that Rosatom's officials and
scientists are engaged in money-laundering schemes, clandestine
technology transfers and other types of `transactions.'[9] An
embodiment of Cold War-style secrecy, Rosatom is a complex of
laboratories and secret `closed cities' where mostly former soviet
scientists design and build nuclear power plants for local demand and
foreign markets.
Notes
[1] See http://wn.com/1988_Spitak_Earthquake
[2] See http://www.arka.am/eng/energy/2008/10/24/11736.html
[3] See http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Armenia/index.html
[4] See http://hyemedia.com/2011/03/14/armenia-protected-against-major-nuclear-plant-emergency/
[5] See http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/2332_april_6_2011/2332_econ_three.html
[6] See http://www.armeniadiaspora.com/news/2176-armenia-protected-against-major-nuclear-plant-emergency.html
[7] See http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/world/news/65443/Georgias_expresident_joins_those_concerned_over_Me tsamor_NPP
[8] See http://www.letemps.ch/Page/Uuid/a869f708-7645-11e0-ad9c-5bc151931d57
[9] See http://csis.org/blog/nuclear-policy-news-may-11-2010;
http://www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home&newsid=21565
Richard Rousseau, Ph.D. is a professor of international relations at
the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku. Read more articles by
Richard Rousseau.
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/14/is-another-nuclear-accident-waiting-to-happen-in-armenia/
May 14 2011
Is Another Nuclear Accident Waiting to Happen in Armenia?
by Richard Rousseau
May 14, 2011
As the political and radioactive fallout of Japan's Fukushima meltdown
spreads, serious regional concerns over the safety of Armenia's aging
Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant continue to mount. Not only does the
plant lie on a physical fault line, but it is also located in a
politically unstable neighborhood, intersected by ethnic and sectarian
divisions, especially with Azerbaijan and Turkey, the latter two being
at loggerheads with Armenia over political, territorial, and valid
environmental safety issues.
While all the parties have an interest in making sure there are no
problems at Metsamor, the recent Fukushima nuclear disaster has simply
magnified the security and environmental concerns of regional actors,
and this will inevitably have an effect on their political relations,
also.
One only has to look at the history of the Metsamor Nuclear Power
Plant to understand that it is basically an accident waiting to
happen. Following the earthquake in the Armenian city of Spitak in
1988, which measured 6.9 on the Richter scale and killed over 25,000
people,[1] Soviet officials decided to shut down the plant. However, a
highly effective economic blockade imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey in
response to the illegal occupation of the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh
by Armenian troops created conditions which led to the reopening of
the plant seven years later, despite expert advice that it should
remain deactivated.
Landlocked Armenia has few short term alternatives to nuclear power.
The Metsamor reactor provides about 40 percent of Armenia's
electricity. Attempts to replace it have been continually frustrated
and efforts to find alternative energy sources, or install a new
reactor with state-of-the-art controls and backup systems, have so far
proved fruitless. However, something will have to be done because the
clock is ticking. In October 2008, Areg Galstyan, the Armenian Deputy
Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, announced that the
construction of a new nuclear power plant is due to start sometime in
2011 and is expected to be commissioned in 2017.[2]
Hakob Sanasaryan, an Armenian chemist and head of the Green Union of
Armenia, claimed in 2003 that the Metsamor did not meet
internationally accepted nuclear safety standards, as it lacks a
containment vessel, whose function is to prevent radioactive release
in the event of an accident.[3] Moreover, the plant is located a mere
75 kilometers from the 1988 earthquake epicenter, an area with a long
history of powerful quakes, and 30 kilometers from the Armenian
capital Yerevan.
Nonetheless, officials in Yerevan insist that Armenia is immune to the
kind of nuclear emergency which has struck Japan, even if the country
is located in a seismically active zone. Ashot Martirosian, head of
Armenia's State Committee on Nuclear Safety Regulation, claims that a
magnitude-8.9 offshore quake, such as the one that has wreaked havoc
on Japan, is extremely unlikely ever to hit Armenia.[4] He also claims
that the cooling system of the nuclear plant at Metsamor is superior
to that of the Fukushima Daiichi facility and that it can withstand an
even more severe earthquake than has been experienced either in Japan
or Armenia in 1988.
The consensus statements by Armenian officials indicate that they have
closed ranks on the nuclear issue. Rafael Arutunian, Deputy Director
of the Institute for Nuclear Energy Security Problems of Armenia,
thinks that Metsamor has shown its capability to withstand serious
earthquakes since 1988 and that any speculation about the threat posed
by Metsamor is merely politicking.[5] However, the Japanese tragedy
has definitely been a wakeup call, he believes. Additional security
measures will now have to be put in place to make the nuclear power
station safe for Armenians as well as for their immediate neighbors.
The Soviet-built nuclear power plant is not considered safe enough by
Western governments either, according to a Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty report.[6] Also, there has been considerable public
controversy - sometimes even hysteria - lately over the use of nuclear
energy and the nuclear industry has a contentious track record. So
much so, for example, that Germany has plans to decommission several
of its plants, even if they are considered as modern and
state-of-the-art. However, the trend for putting safety first is about
to stall in many regions of the world, as political and economic
expediency pushes safety concerns onto the back burner. In that
context, Armenia's neighbors cannot now assume that the once
all-pervading anti-nuclear logic can be used as an unassailable
argument against the Metsamor plant.
The Azerbaijani government and international experts continue to voice
safety concerns over the Metsamor nuclear plant. Azerbaijan wants
solid assurances from Armenia that the plant does not constitute a
danger for any state in the region. Eduard Shevardnadze, former
president of Georgia, has urged his country's authorities to negotiate
with Armenia on the safety of the plant. `Reports about the Armenian
NPP's condition raise serious concerns. The Armenian NPP turned out to
be in the most deplorable condition and there are not any safety
guarantees, what threatens the entire region,' reports PanArmenian.[7]
Up until now, however, it appears that the threat of nuclear disaster
and the damage this potential threat is inflicting to its
international relations are prices the Armenian government considers
worth paying to avoid losing face with their domestic consumers and
international lobby.
Azerbaijan and other regional states' reasonable concerns deserve to
be taken seriously and properly addressed by the Armenian government.
In particular, they need to be reassured that there is an effective
emergency response plan in place; and that needs to be done without
any bias by all the sides as well as other stakeholders. The same
questions which have been thrown up by the Fukushima disaster should
be asked in the case of Metsamor and parallels should be drawn.
Another source of misgivings is the fact that Metsamor has been
operated since 2003 by the Russian Inter RAO UES, owned by Russian
state-run Rosatom Corporation. The contract is valid until 2013.
Azerbaijan and contiguous countries should be particularly concerned
by the `business ethic' of Rosatom. A relic of the Soviet system, it
still operates largely with full autonomy and without oversight since
its activities are not under the scrutiny of any independent
agency.[8] Also, suspicions abounds that Rosatom's officials and
scientists are engaged in money-laundering schemes, clandestine
technology transfers and other types of `transactions.'[9] An
embodiment of Cold War-style secrecy, Rosatom is a complex of
laboratories and secret `closed cities' where mostly former soviet
scientists design and build nuclear power plants for local demand and
foreign markets.
Notes
[1] See http://wn.com/1988_Spitak_Earthquake
[2] See http://www.arka.am/eng/energy/2008/10/24/11736.html
[3] See http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Armenia/index.html
[4] See http://hyemedia.com/2011/03/14/armenia-protected-against-major-nuclear-plant-emergency/
[5] See http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/2332_april_6_2011/2332_econ_three.html
[6] See http://www.armeniadiaspora.com/news/2176-armenia-protected-against-major-nuclear-plant-emergency.html
[7] See http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/world/news/65443/Georgias_expresident_joins_those_concerned_over_Me tsamor_NPP
[8] See http://www.letemps.ch/Page/Uuid/a869f708-7645-11e0-ad9c-5bc151931d57
[9] See http://csis.org/blog/nuclear-policy-news-may-11-2010;
http://www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home&newsid=21565
Richard Rousseau, Ph.D. is a professor of international relations at
the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku. Read more articles by
Richard Rousseau.
http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/14/is-another-nuclear-accident-waiting-to-happen-in-armenia/