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Congrats Baku: Use this occasion to open up regime
BARCIN YINANC
Monday, May 16, 2011
When Hikmet Cetin visited Baku in the early 1990's as a foreign
minister, I was one of the press members covering his talks, with
Azerbaijan's late President Heydar Aliyev. During the press
conference, the members of the Turkish press directed questions to
Aliyev, which were critical of his undemocratic treatment of the
opposition. `Why aren't you giving opposition a bit of room to
breath,' we asked him insistently.
I learned only years after about a conversation between Cetin and
Aliyev following the press conference. `Azerbaijani press did not
address any critical questions to me,' said Cetin. Aliyev's answer
was, `They have got the communist discipline.'
Nothing much changed since those days. Correction. It did change, but
for the worse.
If in the 1990s the form of government in Azerbaijan was described as
semi-authoritarian, by the early 2000s the regime moved in the
authoritarian direction.
Ilham Aliyev was around 40 when he was elected president in 2003,
succeeding his late father. He disappointed those who were hopeful
that this young leader would not be taken hostage by the old guards
but take steps even if modes towards a democratic regime, just as the
case was with Bashar al-Assad. Luck or fate whatever you call it, was
on his side. The high oil-price environment of 2003-2008 brought an
enormous increase in revenues from oil exports. This could have given
him the self confidence to open up the regime. He had two ways in
front of him: be the Norway of Caucasus or the Nigeria of Caucasus. He
had the chance to prove that oil revenues are not a curse when it
comes to democratization, a conviction strengthened by the oil-rich
Arab regimes.
Yet he fall victim to the establishment, just like Bashar al-Assad,
and decided to use oil revenues to finance his oppressive rule.
Since about 2005-06, the government did not even care to maintain the
facade of democracy.
In 2008, as Aliyev was elected president again, despite allegations of
heavy fraud, he again skipped the occasion for a change. Two months
after the elections, Azerbaijani authorities turned off BBC, Radio
Liberty and Voice of America broadcasting services.
As Aliyev seems to be preparing for a third term in 2013, he has not
shown any sign of change. On the contrary recent small antigovernment
demonstrations inspired by the Arab revolutions were met with harsh
response.
While a member of Council of Europe, since 2001, Aliyev disregarded
criticism from Western circles. In reverse, Aliyev was never
successful to get the attention of the world to the Nagorno Karabakh
issue. It was not able to mobilize international support against
Armenia, which is occupying 20 of its territories.
Yet, Azerbaijan got a new chance to have international spotlights.
As Azerbaijan won the Eurovision song contest last Saturday, the
victory ensures, for one week in 2012 at least, the capital city of
Baku will be in the minds of the 125 million to 150 million viewers
who tuned into the competition.
Wining Eurovision certainly pumps up a nation's self confidence. We
know it from Turkey. Aliyev should use this occasion to show that his
country can also qualify to be in the first league of democratic
nations.
Congrats Baku: Use this occasion to open up regime
BARCIN YINANC
Monday, May 16, 2011
When Hikmet Cetin visited Baku in the early 1990's as a foreign
minister, I was one of the press members covering his talks, with
Azerbaijan's late President Heydar Aliyev. During the press
conference, the members of the Turkish press directed questions to
Aliyev, which were critical of his undemocratic treatment of the
opposition. `Why aren't you giving opposition a bit of room to
breath,' we asked him insistently.
I learned only years after about a conversation between Cetin and
Aliyev following the press conference. `Azerbaijani press did not
address any critical questions to me,' said Cetin. Aliyev's answer
was, `They have got the communist discipline.'
Nothing much changed since those days. Correction. It did change, but
for the worse.
If in the 1990s the form of government in Azerbaijan was described as
semi-authoritarian, by the early 2000s the regime moved in the
authoritarian direction.
Ilham Aliyev was around 40 when he was elected president in 2003,
succeeding his late father. He disappointed those who were hopeful
that this young leader would not be taken hostage by the old guards
but take steps even if modes towards a democratic regime, just as the
case was with Bashar al-Assad. Luck or fate whatever you call it, was
on his side. The high oil-price environment of 2003-2008 brought an
enormous increase in revenues from oil exports. This could have given
him the self confidence to open up the regime. He had two ways in
front of him: be the Norway of Caucasus or the Nigeria of Caucasus. He
had the chance to prove that oil revenues are not a curse when it
comes to democratization, a conviction strengthened by the oil-rich
Arab regimes.
Yet he fall victim to the establishment, just like Bashar al-Assad,
and decided to use oil revenues to finance his oppressive rule.
Since about 2005-06, the government did not even care to maintain the
facade of democracy.
In 2008, as Aliyev was elected president again, despite allegations of
heavy fraud, he again skipped the occasion for a change. Two months
after the elections, Azerbaijani authorities turned off BBC, Radio
Liberty and Voice of America broadcasting services.
As Aliyev seems to be preparing for a third term in 2013, he has not
shown any sign of change. On the contrary recent small antigovernment
demonstrations inspired by the Arab revolutions were met with harsh
response.
While a member of Council of Europe, since 2001, Aliyev disregarded
criticism from Western circles. In reverse, Aliyev was never
successful to get the attention of the world to the Nagorno Karabakh
issue. It was not able to mobilize international support against
Armenia, which is occupying 20 of its territories.
Yet, Azerbaijan got a new chance to have international spotlights.
As Azerbaijan won the Eurovision song contest last Saturday, the
victory ensures, for one week in 2012 at least, the capital city of
Baku will be in the minds of the 125 million to 150 million viewers
who tuned into the competition.
Wining Eurovision certainly pumps up a nation's self confidence. We
know it from Turkey. Aliyev should use this occasion to show that his
country can also qualify to be in the first league of democratic
nations.