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Yegparian: No Guarantees

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  • Yegparian: No Guarantees

    YEGPARIAN: NO GUARANTEES
    By: Garen Yegparian

    http://www.armenianweekly.com/2011/05/24/yegparian-no-guarantees/
    Tue, May 24 2011

    Much is being said about, and made of, the "Arab Spring," and rightly
    so. It was, and is, quite breathtaking what happened in a matter
    of weeks earlier this year, though the bloodshed in Libya and Syria
    (not to mention the regimes' harshness in Bahrain and Yemen) speak
    to how long and arduous a process has begun.

    These events have been mislabeled as "revolutions." Typically, what
    we've called "revolution" has been more organized, prepared for longer,
    associated with some ideological/intellectual perspective, and not
    so unforeseeable. The Arabs' and North Africans' actions are perhaps
    better described as rebellions, uprisings, or more cumbersomely,
    "enough is enough reactions" to unacceptable conditions.

    This makes them even more susceptible to cooption than is usually
    the case in revolutions.

    There are no guarantees, even in much better prepared and implemented
    cases of all sorts. Tides of positive change ebb and flow. Things
    don't move uni-directionally for the better, though over time they do
    improve. Whichever example of revolution you choose-American, French,
    Russian, anti-colonial (post-World War II), Iranian, etc.-things
    always looked really good initially, then became far less so. Counting
    slaves as 3/5 human? Installing a reign of the guillotine followed
    by a return of despotic rule? Replacing one man's tyranny with that
    of a party? Shedding imperial rule only to have petty despots grab
    the reins of power? Toppling a king and getting a theocracy as a
    replacement? None of these examples inspire much hope. Yet each
    of these revolutions brought some amelioration to the life of the
    average person.

    Returning to the current set of uprisings, perhaps most instructive
    would be Lebanon. Though not currently living through mass street
    actions, it was the first in the Arab world to have them, after Prime
    Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated with a massive car bomb. Things
    improved with Syria's consequent pullout, but the opposing side has
    yet to deliver with major improvements. This same kind of multi-year,
    multi-generation process awaits other countries undergoing internal
    turmoil. If any further proof is needed, just look at what's going
    on in Armenia and the rest of the former Soviet Union.

    In all this, one big concern for Armenians is the fate of our
    communities in the countries undergoing the current turbulence. These
    communities, as minority groups, have had to develop a modus vivendi
    with whatever authorities were in power. Hopefully, this will not be
    held against them by any new leadership with whom we will undoubtedly
    cooperate. Remember, these are not immigration-based countries such as
    the U.S. and most of the rest of the Americas. There is something of
    a host-guest relationship despite four generations of post-genocide
    citizenship because we are recognized as Armenians, which enables
    and eases the maintenance of our identity in these countries.

    We can only hope that the lives of all people living the Arab Spring
    will be improved when things settle down.




    From: A. Papazian
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